Africa Markets Podcast

AMI 7 June 2022: Africa PMI figures reveal growth concerns

Tue, 07 Jun 2022 05:34:15 +0000

PMI: As inflationary pressures continue unabated across the continent, businesses are having to contend with higher input costs across the board. The latest PMI data shows that in May, business conditions have deteriorated across the continent with output falling and general demand waning.

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AMI 3 June 2022: Namibia’s hospitality sector gradually improving

Fri, 03 Jun 2022 07:08:42 +0000

Namibia: The latest data from the Hospitality Association of Namibia shows an improvement in National Occupancy rates. Room occupancy in April was recorded at 36.5% relative to 27.0% over the same period last year.

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AMI 2 June 2022: Pump prices see further increases

Thu, 02 Jun 2022 10:42:10 +0000

SSA: Zambia has announced a 3.3% increase in pump prices on the back of rising oil prices. Earlier this week, South Africa, which has extended its fuel price relief,

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AMI 1 June 2022: Kenya’s inflation edges higher

Wed, 01 Jun 2022 08:00:58 +0000

Kenya: Inflation has passed the 7% mark in Kenya, coming in at 7.1%y/y as food and fuel inflation continues to drive average prices higher. This is the highest print since February 2020. Cooking oil and wheat prices continue to increase in Kenya and will likely keep food inflation elevated for longer- currently food and non-alcoholic beverages is growing by 12.4%y/y.

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AMI 31 May 2022: CBK raises interest rates by 50bp

Tue, 31 May 2022 05:31:38 +0000

Kenya: In line with our base case scenario, the MPC opted to increase interest rates by 50bp, raising the benchmark interest rate from 7.0% to 7.5%. The narrative for higher interest rates is similar to that of other economies and can be summarised as: rising global uncertainty on account of the Russia/Ukraine war; higher global interest rates and higher global inflation.

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AMI 30 May 2022: Egypt’s ratings outlook goes negative – Moody’s

Mon, 30 May 2022 06:15:28 +0000

Egypt: Moody’s has changed Egypt’s outlook to negative from stable, whilst maintaining the sovereign rating at B2. The effects of the pandemic are having a devastating impact on the Egyptian economy as food inflation soars and as concerns around supply chain prevail.

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AMI 27 May 2022: Zambia - disinflation continues

Fri, 27 May 2022 06:34:58 +0000

he inflation deceleration trend continued in May as headline CPI printed 130bp lower at 10.2% from 11.5% in April.

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AMI 26 May: Mozambique grows by 4.1% in the first quarter

Thu, 26 May 2022 06:18:42 +0000

Mozambique: During the first quarter of the year, the economy grew 4.1% as sectors such as hotels and restaurants, extractive industry, transport and logistics sector grew above 5.0% over the same period. Meanwhile, low growth was found in the public administrative levels, real estate and fishery which continue to growth by less than 1.0%.

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AMI 24 May: Ghana hikes by 200bp, as expected

Tue, 24 May 2022 07:36:01 +0000

The Bank of Ghana opted to raise the main policy rate by a further 200bp, from 17% to 19%. The move was largely anticipated given the rising inflationary pressures in the economy.

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AMI 23 May 2022: Ghana further hikes expected

Mon, 23 May 2022 07:24:27 +0000

Ghana: With inflation soaring past 20% and real policy rates turning negative, we expect the BoG to continue hiking interest rates in the near term. In our base case, we expect the Bank of Ghana to increase interest rates by 300bp over the next 12 months.

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AMI 20 May 2022: Egypt hikes aggressively – more to come

Fri, 20 May 2022 07:20:32 +0000

Egypt: In our March inflation commentary, we mentioned that the upward trend in inflation was likely going to lead to a further hike by the authorities in Egypt. Inflation in April however edged to 13.1%, significantly higher than market expectations, as food inflation impacted the basket.

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AMI 19 May 2022: Zambia MPC’s opts to hold

Thu, 19 May 2022 05:59:27 +0000

Zambia: At the second sitting of the year, the monetary policy committe in Zambia opted to maintain the policy rate at 9%. The deceleration in inflation and the projection for it to trend lower towards the 6-8 % target range by the end of 2023 were highlighted as the main reasons behind the decision.

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AMI 18 May 2022: Zambia’s MPC balances between disinflation and global interest rates

Wed, 18 May 2022 04:54:24 +0000

Zambia: The central bank of Zambia will have to balance two key themes during its monetary policy meeting brief: inflation, which has been decelerating over the past few months and; the rising global interest rate environment.

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AMI 17 May 2022: Fuel pump adjustments impact Botswana’s inflation

Tue, 17 May 2022 04:52:59 +0000

Botswana: Botswana’s inflation moderated to 9.6% y/y in April (down from 10.0% y/y in March). The main contributors to the headline were the transport index, which accounted for 5.5ppt, utilities which made up 1.4ppt, food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8ppt) and miscellaneous goods and services (+0.7ppt).

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AMI 16 May 2022: Wheat prices climb on India ban

Mon, 16 May 2022 06:47:50 +0000

Wheat: India has instituted a ban of its wheat exports, a move that has sent global wheat prices higher amid an already tepid soft commodity environment. Price of wheat has escalated this year because of the Russia/Ukraine war and has been one of the key reasons for higher global inflation.

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AMI 14 April 2022: Inflation surges in Ghana and Bank of Namibia hikes as expected

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 06:30:26 +0000

Inflation has accelerated to 19.4%y/y in Ghana at the end of March. The latest print is the highest ever seen over the past decade as food and fuel prices continue to surge.

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AMI 13 April 2022: Namibia rate hike on the cards

Wed, 13 Apr 2022 06:31:28 +0000

Namibia: We expect the central bank of Namibia to hike interest rates today by 25bps in line with regional movements. Namibia’s inflation has been relative subdued over the past few years hovering between 2% and 6% over the past 5 years.

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AMI 12 April 2022: Egypt’s inflation prints above ten percent

Tue, 12 Apr 2022 06:25:50 +0000

Egypt: The latest data shows annual inflation came in at 10.5% at the end of March as the effects of Russia-Ukraine war exacerbate conditions in the country. Price pressures continue in the country as inflation expectations rise amid higher food and oil prices.

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AMI 06 April 2022: PMI figures bake in the war

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 06:33:03 +0000

PMI: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has had an impact on the latest PMI numbers with several respondents across the continent noting the disruptions on supply and the rising prices of basic goods like fuel,

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AMI 05 April 2022: Inflation expectations to remain elevated

Tue, 05 Apr 2022 06:10:00 +0000

Fuel and fertilizer: Inflation expectations are expected to lift as the second quarter of the year starts. While oil prices have hovered above the US$100 per barrel over the past few weeks, soft commodity prices have been on an increase.

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AMI 04 April 2022: Kenya: market stability necessary for continued growth - CEO survey

Mon, 04 Apr 2022 06:48:29 +0000

Kenya: First quarter survey of CEOs operating in Kenya indicated that there is general optimism about the business environment on account of relaxed covid-19 rules, government infrastructure spending, anticipated better weather conditions and the general economic recovery momentum.

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AMI 1 April: Zambia inflation moderates while Namibia’s economy rebounds

Fri, 01 Apr 2022 06:50:00 +0000

Zambia: Inflation for March continued on its disinflationary path as it eased to 13.1% from the 14.2% recorded in February. The moderation can be attributed to a slower pace of price growth for both the food and non-food segments

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AMI 31 March 2022: Mozambique hikes amid fears of rising inflation

Thu, 31 Mar 2022 06:05:00 +0000

Mozambique: The monetary policy committee of Mozambique has opted to hike interest rates by 200bps, a sign that the central bank is concerned about inflation. Notably, the central bank targets single digit inflation – this hike suggests that the central bank is convinced that inflation would edge over 10% in the short to medium term.

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AMI 30 March 2022

Wed, 30 Mar 2022 07:27:00 +0000

Kenya: The monetary policy committee have opted to keep interest rates flat in Kenya given their broad view that the economy is on a path of recovery and inflation at the moment remains within its target range.

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AMI 29 March 2022: IMF and Mozambique reach staff level agreement

Tue, 29 Mar 2022 06:45:50 +0000

Mozambique: The IMF team reached a staff-level agreement with the Mozambican authorities on a new arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for 2022-2025 to support sustainable, inclusive growth, and long-term macroeconomic stability.

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AMI 28 March 2022: Zinc prices remain high on limited supply

Mon, 28 Mar 2022 06:58:51 +0000

Commodity prices have continued to soar since the start of the war in Europe. While part of the gains were associated with the general sell-off, the recent gains in base metal prices is influenced by concerns around supply.

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AMI 25 March 2022: Zambia currency to remain rangebound

Fri, 25 Mar 2022 08:53:46 +0000

The MoF indicated that Zambia was on path to reach an IMF board approval by mid-year. While we change our base case for board approval later in the second half of the year, we agree that overal momentum around Zambia’s fiscal and economic developments, is improving.

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AMI 24 March 2022: Ghana set to announce expenditure cuts

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 06:44:05 +0000

Ghana: The Ghanaian authorities are expected to announce budget cuts later today to improve the fiscal trajectory of the country. Concerns have mounted over the past year regarding the authorities’ abilities to both contain expenditure and present credible revenue targets.

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AMI 23 March 2022: A focus on Egypt

Wed, 23 Mar 2022 06:35:33 +0000

Egypt: Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, Egyptian authorities have set in motion both fiscal and monetary policy changes. We saw similar swift responses from the authorities at the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

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AMI 22 March 2022: Ghana hikes amid inflationary concerns

Tue, 22 Mar 2022 04:08:57 +0000

Ghana: Bank of Ghana has opted to hike the main policy rate by 250bps, raising it to 17% in an attempt to arrest inflation across the economy. The MPC has seemingly opted to frontload it hikes as opposed to taking a staggered approach towards its hiking cycle.

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AMI 25 February 2022: Botswana’s bank rate stays put at 3.75%

Fri, 25 Feb 2022 06:07:14 +0000

The Bank of Botswana’s MPC maintained the bank rate at 3.75% at a meeting held on 24 February 2022. This decision was made against a backdrop of elevated levels of price growth, with risks being skewed to the upside

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AMI 24 February 2022: Commodities rise on Russsia-Ukraine tensions

Thu, 24 Feb 2022 05:58:25 +0000

The ordered Russian military action on Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring, including PGMs lift as well as safe-haven assets.

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AMI 23 February 2022: Brent crude oil expected to breach US$100/bbl

Wed, 23 Feb 2022 05:38:00 +0000

Nigeria: The Russia-Ukraine tensions have persisted.

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AMI 22 February 2022: Kenyan shilling supported by satisfactory FX reserves and higher remittance inflows

Tue, 22 Feb 2022 06:45:03 +0000

Kenya: Kenya’s National Treasury released the Quarterly Economic and Budgetary review for 2021/22. The document noted that the economy had grown, on average, by 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2021.

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AMI 21 February 2022: Zambia - Kwacha gains and credit rating upgrade

Mon, 21 Feb 2022 06:33:04 +0000

he kwacha has gained ground over the past week, leading to a monthly gain of 3.6%

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AMI 18 February 2022: Nigerian economy grows by 3.4% in 2021

Fri, 18 Feb 2022 07:08:06 +0000

Nigeria: Real GDP growth came in at 3.40% y/y in 2021 as one of Africa’s largest economies recovered from the 2020 recession.

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AMI 17 February 2022: Zambia and Namibia interest rate decisions

Thu, 17 Feb 2022 06:29:08 +0000

Monetary policy: The Bank of Zambia MPC opted to keep interest rates flat at the February meeting.

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AMI 16 February 2022: Botswana inflation – still on the rise

Wed, 16 Feb 2022 05:37:00 +0000

Botswana: Inflation kicked-off the year by printing a staggering 10.6% y/y in January (compared to 2.3% y/y in January 2021). The main driver of domestic price growth remains the transport index

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AMI 15 February 2022: Mozambique GDP growth — lower than expected

Tue, 15 Feb 2022 06:51:00 +0000

Data from Mozambique’s statistics institute revealed that growth came in lower that we had expected in 2021, printing at 2.16% y/y versus our estimates of 2.50% y/y.

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AMI 14 February 2022: Pressure mounts on regional inflation

Mon, 14 Feb 2022 05:28:00 +0000

Inflation: The latest surge in oil prices, combined with higher regional maize price indicators relative to last year, will cause further price inflation.

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AMI 11 February 2022: Base metal prices boosted by US inflation print

Fri, 11 Feb 2022 06:25:16 +0000

Base metals: Commodity prices have received a boost this week post the latest US CPI print. Inflation rose by 7.5% y/y in January, driving yields higher and leading to sizeable gains in commodities.

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AMI 10 February 2022: Inflation rises in Ghana and Mozambique

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 06:09:33 +0000

Inflation: Price pressures have continued to mount at the beginning of the year across various economies as supply-side factors elevate inflation.

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AMI 09 February 2022: Zambia medium-term budget plan

Wed, 09 Feb 2022 04:42:08 +0000

The Ministry of Finance and National Planning in Zambia released a white paper detailing its medium-term budget plan. Critically, the report shows that focus will primarily be on lowering the fiscal deficit (on a cash basis, excluding amortization) to
-5.2% of GDP

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AMI 08 February 2022: Botswana fiscal policy

Tue, 08 Feb 2022 06:03:39 +0000

Botswana: Finance Minister Peggy Serame delivered her maiden budget to parliament on 7 February 2022.

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AMI 07 February 2022: Cedi to remain on the back foot

Mon, 07 Feb 2022 05:20:45 +0000

As the second month of the year gains momentum, the cedi continues to weaken as dollar demand ramps up in Ghana and liquidity conditions tighten.

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AMI 15 December 2021: Mozambique’s budget approval and Namibia’s house price index

Wed, 15 Dec 2021 07:48:56 +0000

Mozambique: The Mozambican parliament has approved the 2022 budget, which shows a significant increase in government expenditure. This is likely to result in further widening of the budget balance, which we expect to widen from
-10% of GDP in 2021 to -12.5% of GDP.

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AMI 14 December 2021: Kenya’s power cost and foreign reserves levels

Tue, 14 Dec 2021 06:51:02 +0000

Kenya: The authorities have opted to introduce price cuts to electricity over the course of the next few months in a bid to alleviate pressures faced by both households and businesses. Over the past 12 months,

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AMI 13 December 2021: Ghana on vaccines and kwacha gains

Mon, 13 Dec 2021 06:19:23 +0000

Ghana: Ghana has introduced mandatory vaccinations for all travellers entering the country. The move comes at a time when the world is contending with a fourth wave.

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AMI 10 December 2021: Egypt inflation and Africa local currency bonds

Fri, 10 Dec 2021 04:53:51 +0000

Egypt: Both annual and monthly inflation slowed in November. On a year-on-year basis, the print came in at 5.6% vs 6.3% the month before while the monthly reading eased to 0.1% from 1.5%.

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AMI 9 December 2021: Namibia monetary policy and EM sovereign credits

Thu, 09 Dec 2021 06:46:33 +0000

Namibia: Yesterday the Bank of Namibia kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC cited that the spreading of the omicron variant is a major risk of the nascent economic recovery.

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AMI 08 December 2021: Côte d'Ivoire cocoa and oil prices

Wed, 08 Dec 2021 06:37:41 +0000

Côte d'Ivoire: Overall, export earnings from cocoa are expected to remain robust over the course of 2022 given the expectation of normal to above normal rainfall for the region.

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AMI 07 December 2021: Ghana’s PMI and the kwacha

Tue, 07 Dec 2021 06:22:46 +0000

Ghana: The Ghanaian market continues to improve with the latest PMI figures coming in at 51.0 at the end of November. We indicated earlier this week that most economies have PMI numbers above the 50-neutral mark as demand resumes across the various economies.

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AMI 06 December 2021: PMI data and Zambia IMF deal

Mon, 06 Dec 2021 05:39:36 +0000

PMI: The latest PMI figures show that business activity and sentiment is generally positive towards the end of the year. Across Zambia, Mozambique, and Kenya, PMI figures are in expansionary territory printing 51.8, 52.0 and 53.0 respectively.

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AMI 3 December 2021: Kenya’s budget and FX

Fri, 03 Dec 2021 06:09:00 +0000

Lawmakers have approved plans to increase spending by 5.4% in FY21/22. As a result, the authorities now see the fiscal deficit narrowing to 8.2% of GDP in the current fiscal year and narrowing to 6% in FY22/23.

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AMI 2 December 2021: Nigeria PMI and EM eurobonds

Thu, 02 Dec 2021 06:16:00 +0000

Nigeria: The PMI reading for November remained in expansionary territory, printing at 55 from 54.1 the month before

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AMI 01 December 2021: Namibia PSCE, Kenya inflation and diamond prices

Wed, 01 Dec 2021 07:01:28 +0000

Namibia: Credit to the private sector continued to grow at a slow pace of 2.9% y/y at the end of October

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AMI 30 November 2021: Nigeria’s credit rating and Kenya interest rates

Tue, 30 Nov 2021 06:59:10 +0000

Nigeria: Moody’s has changed Nigeria’s credit rating outlook from negative to stable while affirming the long-term issuer credit rating at B2.

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AMI 29 November 2021: Covid-19 and commodity prices

Mon, 29 Nov 2021 04:34:00 +0000

Covid-19: While active cases remain low in the region, there are signs that at fourth wave of covid-19 can be expected over the next month. Despite expectations of it, the new omicron mutation has added towards uncertainty on length and nature of the wave.

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AMI 26 November 2021:Zambia inflation, Ethiopia GDP and EM spreads

Fri, 26 Nov 2021 05:32:10 +0000

Zambia: Inflation in November continued to decelerate as the reading came in at 19.3%y/y compared to 21.1% a month before. Zambia’s inflation trajectory continues to buck the regional trend of increasing price pressures simply because of base effects and the lagged impact of a strong currency in 2H21.

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AMI 25 November 2021: Zambia and Lesotho MPC, and Egypt 3Q21 GDP

Thu, 25 Nov 2021 06:56:45 +0000

Zambia: The MPC opted to hike rates by 50bp, lifting the policy rate to 9.0%. Key to the decision was the fiscal policy target which aims to have inflation taper to single digit territory by 2023.

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AMI 3 November 2021: Egypt PMI and the metical

Wed, 03 Nov 2021 06:12:02 +0000

Egypt: The latest PMI figures point towards a slowdown in non-oil sector output on the back of supply-side bottlenecks. We have cautioned before that one of the negative externalities from covid-19 has been the impact on supply chains globally.

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AMI 2 Nov 2021: Nigeria PMI and Mozambique’s graphite

Tue, 02 Nov 2021 05:41:39 +0000

Nigeria: Economic recovery continues to garner momentum in Nigeria, with the latest PMI figures indicating that output from various producers in the country is on the rise. In October,

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AMI 29 October 2021: Egypt MPC decision, Zambia’s inflation and it’s budget

Fri, 29 Oct 2021 05:47:46 +0000

Egypt: True to expectation, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged for the eight consecutive meeting.

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AMI 28 October 2021: Egypt MPC and Nigeria subsidies

Thu, 28 Oct 2021 06:02:00 +0000

Egypt: Front and center today will be the MPC decision were we expect interest rates to stand pat. While the trajectory of higher inflation (6.6% in September) will be concern, the committee will be cognisant that the high real interest rate has been supportive to the external accounts.

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AMI 27 October 2021: Covid-19 update and aluminium prices

Wed, 27 Oct 2021 07:12:03 +0000

Covid-19: BioNTech has signed deals with Rwanda and Senegal for the production of mRNA vaccines from mid-2022. Since earlier this year, discussions have been evolving around the potential production of vaccines (including covid-19 vaccines) in the continent.

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AMI 26 October 2021: CBN support and the kwacha

Tue, 26 Oct 2021 07:10:41 +0000

Nigeria: The central bank has committed to provide financial support to private sector companies based on the policy they have introduced that will run from the first of November.

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AMI 25 October 2021:Mozambique price pressures and brent crude

Mon, 25 Oct 2021 06:53:27 +0000

Mozambique: We see further upward pressure to Mozambique’s inflation profile as the energy regulator announced higher prices on petroleum products last week. On average fuel prices were increased by 9% while cooking gas is up 26%.

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AMI 22 October 2021: Botswana’s interest rate decision and IMF’s mission to Zambia

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 05:38:44 +0000

Botswana: The Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the bank rate at 3.75% at yesterday’s meeting.

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AMI 21 October 2021: Namibia’s MPC and Zambia’s external debt

Thu, 21 Oct 2021 05:35:04 +0000

Namibia: The Bank of Namibia’s MPC yesterday kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on sluggish economic growth. We don’t foresee any changes to interest rate levels until 2H22 where we expect a 25bp increase, aligned with regional interest rate hikes.

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AMI 20 October 2021: Namibia’s MPC and the Kenyan shilling

Wed, 20 Oct 2021 06:02:25 +0000

Namibia: We expect the MPC to keep interest rates flat at 3.75%, maintaining their current broad accommodative stance within the economy. Since their last seating, inflation has broadly moved sideways coming in at 3.5%y/y in September.

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AMI 19 October 2021: Mozambique budget proposal and copper prices

Tue, 19 Oct 2021 07:08:56 +0000

Mozambique: The Council of Ministers in Mozambique have approved the proposal of the budget, now slated to be debated in parliament over the next few months.

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AMI 18 October 2021: Côte d’Ivoire politics and natural gas prices

Mon, 18 Oct 2021 05:55:45 +0000

Côte d’Ivoire: Former president of Côte d’Ivoire, Laurent Gbagbo, has launched a new political party African People Party – Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI). The former president has stated that he plans to remain in politics for the rest of his life.

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AMI 15 October 2021: Namibia’s inflation and Nigerian naira

Fri, 15 Oct 2021 05:29:32 +0000

Namibia: Inflation pushed higher in September to 3.5%y/y from 3.4% in August. In monthly terms, the print came in at 0.3% compared to -0.2% a month before, which was the lowest reading since September 2020.

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AMI 14 October 2021: Ghana inflation and Egypt index inclusion

Thu, 14 Oct 2021 06:17:15 +0000

Ghana: True to form, annual inflation continues to increase, with the September print coming in at 10.6% y/y from 9.7% a month before. The latest print, a 14-month high, is now above the 10% — the upper threshold of the inflation target band.

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AMI 13 October 2021: Mozambique’s leading inflation indicator and vaccines

Wed, 13 Oct 2021 06:26:08 +0000

Mozambique: Latest inflation leading indicator suggests that the final quarter of the year could see inflation remaining persistently high in Mozambique. On an annual basis, the leading indicator is up 12.3%y/y at the end of September on the back of higher fuel prices and persistently high regional food prices.

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AMI 20 September 2021: Namibia house prices and commodity prices

Mon, 20 Sep 2021 06:33:54 +0000

Namibia: FNB housing Index is up 9.6% y/y at the end of June, signalling a recovery in house prices across the market despite a weak economic backdrop.

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AMI 17 September 2021: Egypt rate decision and Nigeria's eurobond issuance

Fri, 17 Sep 2021 05:12:05 +0000

Egypt: True to expectation, the central bank left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The statement was neutral on the recent increases in inflation, citing base effects and muted core CPI. On growth, the committee noted the strong economic recovery, particularly the 2Q21 print of 7.7% which brought the full year FY20/21 growth to 3.3%.

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AMI 16 Sept - Nigeria and Namibia inflation, Egypt rate decision and Ghana 2Q21 growth

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 06:52:00 +0000

Nigeria: In keeping with consensus, inflation slowed to 17% y/y in August from 17.4% in July. With month-on-month inflation having printed at 1% compared to 0.9% a month before, the move seems to be driven more by base effects. We expect the trend lower to continue for the remainder of the year, but the pace of disinflation could be challenged by the weakening naira in the parallel market, which now trades at 562 to the dollar. This is markedly wider than the 412 in the I&E window.

The latest print cements our view that the bank rate will be left unchanged in the upcoming MPC meeting.

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AMI 15 September 2021: Mozambique’s MPC and the metical

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 06:10:06 +0000

Mozambique: We expect the central bank to keep interest rates at the current level. Since the last MPC meeting, inflation has remained above 5.0% — a rate we expected given the rising regional food prices, higher oil prices and weaker currency.

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AMI 14 September 2021: Zambia’s growth forecast and oil price growth

Tue, 14 Sep 2021 04:46:24 +0000

Zambia: According to the ministry of finance’s Mid-year economic report, growth in the Zambian economy is slated to come in at 1.6%y/y in 2021. Underpinning their growth figures will be the performance of the key sectors of agriculture,

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AMI 13 September 2021: Botswana’s loan and aluminium prices

Mon, 13 Sep 2021 05:55:44 +0000

Botswana: Botswana received support from the African Development Bank (AfDB) in the form of a US$137m loan to support its economic recovery efforts

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AMI 10 September 2021: Egypt inflation and Kenya economic growth

Fri, 10 Sep 2021 07:44:09 +0000

Egypt: for three consecutive months, annual inflation has increased now standing at 5.7%y/y in august from 5.4% in July. Generally, global food prices have been increasing alongside fuel costs as the scars of the pandemic fade.

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AMI 9 Sept 2021 - Ghana inflation and Kenya declares national disaster

Thu, 09 Sep 2021 06:42:12 +0000

Ghana: Inflation for August surged to 9.7% from 9% y/y a month earlier. The main protagonist was food, which increased to 10.9% from 9.5% — in keeping with international trends where food prices continue to rise. Non-food prices rose by 8.7%, after climbing 8.6% in the prior month.

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AMI 08 September 2021: DSSI extension and the kwacha

Wed, 08 Sep 2021 06:08:05 +0000

DSSI: Mozambique, Kenya and Zambia are among several African countries that will be benefiting from a final extension of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The extension runs from the 1st of July to the 31st of December.

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AMI 07 September 2021 Mozambique’s coal and natural gas prices

Tue, 07 Sep 2021 06:25:36 +0000

Mozambique: Coal production from Vale operations in Mozambique has increased by 92%q/q over second quarter of this year according to reports.

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AMI 06 September 2021: Egypt’s PMI and Aluminium prices

Mon, 06 Sep 2021 05:55:00 +0000

Egypt: Despite remaining below the 50-neutral level, PMI data in Egypt edged higher in August coming in at 49.8 from 49.1 in July. The pick-up was on the back of improved demand across the market.

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AMI 03 September 2021: Mozambique PMI and Zambia bonds

Fri, 03 Sep 2021 07:44:00 +0000

Mozambique: The latest PMI reading dipped below the 50-neutral level, printing at 47.9 in August relative to 51.8 a month earlier.

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AMI 2 September 2021: Zambia MPC, Oil vs non-oil credits

Thu, 02 Sep 2021 05:47:50 +0000

Zambia: As expected, the central bank held interest rates at 8.5% citing that while inflation was projected to remain above the bank’s target, it was on a downward trajectory.

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AMI 01 September 2021: Zambia’s MPC, Namibia’s PSCE and Kenya’s inflation

Wed, 01 Sep 2021 06:15:24 +0000

Zambia: We expect the central bank to increase interest rates during the MPC meeting. We maintain this view given the inflationary pressures across the economy.

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AMI 31 August 2021: Mozambique’s economy, Namibia’s fuel and Nigeria’s Eurobond Issue

Tue, 31 Aug 2021 06:00:00 +0000

Mozambique: Second quarter growth came in at 1.97%q/q as tertiary sector services showed improvement across the economy.

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AMI 06 August 2021: Egypt MPC decision and Ghana eurobond curve

Fri, 06 Aug 2021 05:34:00 +0000

Egypt: True to expectation, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged as it mulls over the impact of the recent fuel price increases. In the near term, we expect a moderate pickup in inflation as aggregate demand increases.

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AMI 5 Aug 2021: Egypt MPC decision and Nigeria eurobond issuance

Thu, 05 Aug 2021 07:19:32 +0000

Egypt: We expect the central bank to keep interest rates on hold today on account of a stable inflation profile and the need to support economic growth.

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AMI 04 August 2021: PMI releases and base metals

Wed, 04 Aug 2021 07:03:37 +0000

PMI: IHS PMI data is divergent at the end of July with Egypt’s PMI teetering below 50 while that of Nigeria at lofty levels of 55.4. Meanwhile Mozambique’s figures remain in positive territory coming in at 51.8.

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AMI 03 August 2021: IMF drawing rights and Iron ore prices

Tue, 03 Aug 2021 06:51:03 +0000

IMF: The announcement that IMF governors have approved US$650bn in special drawing rights will bode favourably for several economies. In particular, several countries in Africa could benefit from the increase in SDRs (available based on the existing quota allocation) as a means of bolstering reserves levels were utilised as part of the wider response to tackling the pandemic.

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AMI 02 August 2021: Namibia PSCE and Kwacha levels

Mon, 02 Aug 2021 07:14:00 +0000

Namibia: Private sector credit extension growth remains low at 2.7% y/y at the end of June. Over the past few months, credit extension has moved sideways as the economic performance remains lackluster.

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AMI 30 July 2021: Egypt’s credit rating, Zambia inflation and Ghana’s mid-year review

Fri, 30 Jul 2021 07:15:00 +0000

Egypt: Moody's yesterday affirmed the country's rating at B2 with a stable outlook. Despite the progress that the economy has made during the pandemic in minimising the economic fallout, the agency noted that the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and potential liquidity challenges. Egypt’s susceptibility to these shocks is a result of high gross financing needs which Moody’s estimates to be 35% of GDP.

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AMI 29 July 2021 - Nigeria FX moves, Kenya interest rate decision

Thu, 29 Jul 2021 08:37:40 +0000

Nigeria: Following the recent decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria to discontinue the sale of foreign exchange to bureau de change operators, the naira on the parallel market has weakened aggressively

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AMI 27 July 2021: Nigeria and Ghana monetary policies

Tue, 27 Jul 2021 04:26:00 +0000

Nigeria: Our base case scenario is for the central bank to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged. This is largely because the non-oil economic recovery is still very fragile at this stage and the CBN would want to send a strong signal that it is committed to monetary policy supporting the recovery.

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AMI 26 July 2021: Egypt fuel increases, and the Zambian kwacha

Mon, 26 Jul 2021 08:31:54 +0000

Egypt: Last Friday, the Egypt’s Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee adjusted fuel prices upwards by about 3% to EGP6.75, EGP8 and EGP9 for 80, 92 and 95 octane gasoline.

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AMI 23 July 2021: Cote d’Ivoire economy and Zambia kwacha

Fri, 23 Jul 2021 07:41:25 +0000

Cote d’Ivoire: the IMF’s conclusion of its Article IV Consultation saw the fund indicating that the economy will grow by 6% and 6.5% in 2021 and 2022. This is broadly in line with our forecast of 5.8% and 6.2% over the same period.

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