CommBank View: Economics & Markets

US-China Summit: What Happens Next?

Tue, 19 May 2026 19:00:00 +0000

The latest summit between Presidents Trump and Xi maintained the fragile trade truce between the US and China, but how much progress was really made on the issues shaping the global economy?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about what the summit means for the future of US-China relations, including the ongoing disputes over semiconductors, rare earths and Taiwan. He also discusses why China is unlikely to play a decisive role in ending the Iran conflict, and why the ceasefire remains fragile despite ongoing negotiations.

CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geo-Economics Joe Capurso then joins the conversation to discuss the economic impact of the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for global growth, inflation and energy markets. He also explains what the latest Chinese economic data reveals about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, whether more stimulus is likely, and the structural challenges shaping China’s long-term growth outlook.

Plus, CommBank Senior Associate in Market Strategy & Rates Research Michael Tang shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

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Federal Budget: Big Ambitions, Mixed Results

Thu, 14 May 2026 03:59:02 +0000

The Federal Budget attempts to tackle everything from inflation and housing to long-term budget repair, but how much will it really change the outlook for the Australian economy?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Head of Market Strategy & Rates Research Adam Donaldson about the key measures in this year’s Budget and whether the Government struck the right balance between spending, savings and reform. From the impact on inflation and interest rates to the long-term path for deficits, debt and Australia’s economic resilience, they unpack what the Budget means for households, businesses and the broader economy.

Luke explains the major housing tax changes, including the end of negative gearing and reforms to capital gains tax, and what they could mean for home prices and affordability. Adam also discusses what the improved fiscal outlook means for Australia’s AAA credit rating, bond issuance and state budgets.

Plus, CommBank’s Associate International Economist & Currency Strategist Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets this week.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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RBA Rates Decision: What Happens Next?

Wed, 06 May 2026 04:23:19 +0000

The Reserve Bank has delivered another interest rate hike, but is the tightening cycle now nearing its end and how concerned should policymakers be about stagflation risks?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about the RBA’s latest decision to lift the cash rate to 4.35% and why inflation remains the central concern for policymakers. From rising inflation expectations to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, they unpack the difficult balancing act facing central banks as growth slows and supply shocks continue to pressure prices.

Belinda explains why the RBA now believes it has space to monitor developments from here, what could still trigger another rate hike later this year, and why maintaining credibility on inflation remains critical in a world of rolling economic shocks. She also discusses the risk of stagflation, the outlook for household spending and housing, and whether inflation pressures could prove more persistent than expected.

Plus, CommBank’s Harry Ottley shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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In Conversation with Treasurer Jim Chalmers

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 19:00:00 +0000

For this special bonus episode, CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with the Treasurer of Australia, Dr Jim Chalmers. They discuss the long-term direction of the Australian economy in a world shaped by geopolitical tensions, technological change and shifting global dynamics. From the breakdown of the rules-based order to the risks and opportunities of a “churn and change” environment, they explore how Australia can position itself in this new era.

The Treasurer also shares his perspective on the Iran conflict and its economic impact, including risks to fuel supply, alongside the outlook for inflation and interest rates following the latest data. They discuss what to expect from the upcoming Federal Budget, the role of tax reform, and how structural pressures could shape productivity, jobs and the future of work.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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De-dollarisation: Is the US Dollar at Risk?

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 19:00:00 +0000

The US dollar has long dominated global markets, but is that starting to change and what would it mean for the global economy?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist and Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton about what de-dollarisation really means and why it’s back in focus. From rising geopolitical tensions to renewed pressure on the US Federal Reserve under President Trump, they explore what is driving the debate and how it connects to questions around central bank independence.

Kristina explains whether the Fed is likely to maintain its independence and what that means for confidence in the US dollar. She also outlines which currencies could challenge its dominance, and why alternatives like the euro and Chinese yuan face significant hurdles.

Plus, CommBank’s Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Consumer Spending: Feeling the Impact of War

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 19:00:00 +0000

Australia’s consumer spending has remained surprisingly resilient, but early signs suggest that may not last.

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Ashwin Clarke about how households are responding to rising cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. From higher petrol prices to broader cost-of-living impacts, they unpack how global shocks are filtering through to everyday spending and business activity.

Ashwin explains why household spending has held up so far, supported by savings buffers and a willingness to absorb short-term income shocks. But with sentiment deteriorating, real incomes under pressure and unemployment expected to rise, the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

Plus, CommBank’s Dr Hamid Yahyaei shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Australian Housing: What’s Next For Prices?

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 04:56:27 +0000

Australia’s housing market has remained resilient, but is the strong growth in home prices set to slow as interest rates rise?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about how the housing market has evolved and what’s driving price growth across the country. From rising interest rates to strong population growth and ongoing supply constraints, they unpack why conditions vary so widely between capital cities and what’s behind the ongoing pressure in the rental market.

Trent explains why price growth is expected to ease into late 2026, and how factors like mortgage rates, population trends and policy changes could shape the outlook. He also explores the potential impact of adjustments to the capital gains tax discount, and what it could mean for housing prices, rents and overall affordability.

Plus, CommBank’s John Oh shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Global Outlook: War Inflation to Spark Higher Interest Rates

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:00:00 +0000

The global economy is facing a new wave of uncertainty, but how much will the Middle East conflict slow growth and push interest rates higher?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geoeconomics Joseph Capurso about the impact of the conflict on the global outlook, with growth now expected to come in below trend over the next two years. From rising energy prices to uneven impacts across major economies, they explore why Europe, the UK and Japan are more exposed, while the US, China and Canada may prove more resilient.

Joseph explains how the surge in oil and gas prices is feeding into inflation, raising the risk that central banks will need to tighten policy further. He also outlines which economies and industries are most exposed to higher energy costs, and what it could mean for households, businesses and the path for global interest rates.

Plus, CommBank’s Senior Economist Ryan Felsman shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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The Middle East Conflict: No Easy Way Out

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 18:00:00 +0000

The Middle East conflict has entered its second month, but is a resolution any closer or are markets underestimating the risk of a prolonged war?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about why a quick end to the conflict remains unlikely despite ongoing claims of progress. From the resilience of the Iranian regime to the lack of alignment between US, Israeli and Iranian objectives, they explore why the conflict risks becoming a drawn-out strategic stalemate.

Dr Cartwright explains how disruptions to key energy routes and infrastructure are already impacting oil, gas and broader commodity markets, and why further escalation remains a real risk. He also outlines why a diplomatic solution remains out of reach, what it would take to end the conflict, and why the global economy may continue to feel the impact.

Plus, CommBank’s Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Inflation: Has Australia Hit Its Speed Limit?

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Inflation has become one of the defining challenges for the Australian economy, but why did it take off and has Australia already hit its economic “speed limit”?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about how inflation re-accelerated and why the Reserve Bank of Australia had already begun tightening policy even before the latest escalation in the Middle East. From strong demand across households, government and business to constraints on supply, they explore what is driving inflation and how close Australia is to its limits on growth.

Belinda unpacks how different geopolitical scenarios, from a quick de-escalation to a prolonged disruption in energy markets, could shape the outlook for the Australian economy. She also explains the role of fiscal policy, and what it all means for the RBA’s next moves.

Plus, CommBank’s Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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How the Middle East Conflict Is Shaking Energy Markets

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 18:00:00 +0000

The conflict in the Middle East is rattling global energy markets, but how big could the disruption really be?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about risks to global oil and gas supply as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz.

Vivek explains how prolonged conflict could push oil and LNG prices sharply higher, forcing demand destruction across parts of the global economy and adding inflationary pressures. He also outlines implications for energy prices and risk management in Australia, particularly ahead of the winter season.

Plus, CommBank's Harry Ottley shares what we can expect to move markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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AI: Boom, Bubble or Both?

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Artificial intelligence is dominating headlines, but is it the next economic bubble or a breakthrough that could power global growth for decades?

In this episode of CommBank View: Economics & Markets, host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman about the forces driving the AI boom. From huge investments in data centres to the US-China AI race, hear how AI could deliver a long-awaited productivity boost and reshape economies worldwide, including in Australia.

Luke explains why AI could help offset major global headwinds, from geopolitical tensions to ageing populations, and what it might mean for interest rates, investment, and the future of work.

Plus, CommBank's Carol Kong shares the three things set to move markets this week.

This podcast is not investment research and is for informational purposes only. Please visit www.commbankresearch.com.au for the full report and the full disclaimers.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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CommBank View: Economics & Markets - Trailer

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 05:21:40 +0000

Global markets are moving quickly. Policy settings are shifting, and the economic outlook is becoming more complex.

Introducing “CommBank View: Economics and Markets”, a new podcast from the CommBank Global Economic and Markets Research team, hosted by Mandy Dury.

Each week, CommBank economists will provide in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic forces shaping Australian and global markets. Explore in-depth coverage across Australian Economics and Commodities, International Economics, Sustainable Economics, Market Strategy and Rates, and more.

This podcast is not investment research and is for informational purposes only.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly – CPI and capex data keep RBA on its toes

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 02:23:07 +0000

In this week’s podcast, CBA economists Belinda Allen and Ashwin Clarke discuss a busy week of data and RBA communications. CPI remains too high and capex intentions were upgraded, keeping the RBA on alert. Next stop is December quarter GDP figures.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Labour market remains tight ahead of January CPI data

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 06:10:30 +0000

In this week's podcast, CBA economists Belinda Allen, Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley discuss a busy week in labour market data that continues to suggest it remains too tight. They also preview the key January CPI due next week.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Economic data and RBA communication galore

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 06:32:42 +0000

In this week's podcast, CBA economists Ashwin Clarke and Harry Ottley break down a week full of economic data and RBA communication.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.

This podcast provides general market-related information only and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations.

Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank’s proprietary data that is sourced from its internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, Cotality and RBA data. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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Aussie Weekly - RBA increases cash rate target to 3.85%

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 05:43:43 +0000

The RBA increased the cash rate to 3.85% this week. In this week's podcast, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley discuss the why interest rates are heading higher in 2026.

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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Aussie Weekly - Strong CPI sets up rate hike next week

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 05:29:56 +0000

The Q4 25 CPI data was strong in line with CBA expectations. In this podcast, economists Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley dissect the inflation data and explore what it means for the RBA meeting next week.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly – Labour market strength ahead of key inflation data

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 04:24:56 +0000

In this week’s Aussie Weekly podcast, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Trent Saunders unpack a strong December labour force report and what it signals about tightening conditions in the Australian economy. They also preview next week’s critical Q4 CPI release. The discussion also explores what the latest data means for the RBA’s reaction function, reinforcing the case for a 25bp rate hike at the February Board meeting.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - US dollar and Australian dollar outlook

Sun, 21 Dec 2025 22:19:02 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the outlook for the US dollar, the implications for the Australian dollar and the broader outlook for Australian dollar cross rates.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Why we expect the RBA to hike in February

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 02:57:09 +0000

In the final podcast of the year, CBA economists Belinda Allen, Ashwin Clarke and Harry Ottley outline why an RBA rate hike in February is likely. They also preview what lies ahead for the Australian economy in 2026.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly: US economic data and central bank policy meetings in the UK, Eurozone and Japan

Sun, 14 Dec 2025 22:28:40 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including a range of US economic data and central bank policy meetings in the UK, Eurozone and Japan.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - RBA flags rate hikes in 2026

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 01:25:28 +0000

CBA economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley dissect the hawkish RBA Board meeting and analyse economic data on the labour market and consumer spending.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly: Central bank policy meetings in Australia, the US and Canada

Sun, 07 Dec 2025 22:49:51 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the central bank policy meetings in Australia, the US and Canada.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie weekly: GDP recap and RBA preview

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 05:49:24 +0000

September quarter National Accounts data was the key highlight this past week. Annual growth lifted to 2.1% reaching our estimate of Australia’s speed limit. Consumers are spending, businesses are investing and the public sector continues to add to growth. Belinda Allen and Ashwin Clarke unpack the data and discuss the implications for the RBA.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - Global economic outlook to improve in 2026 but with risks

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 04:23:14 +0000

CBA’s international economics team discuss their latest forecasts for the global economy and outlook for central bank interest rates.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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FX Weekly - Stronger economic data and the improving global economy can support the Australian dollar this week.

Sun, 30 Nov 2025 23:17:13 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara discuss the top influences effecting currency markets this week including an improving global economy, Australian GDP data, and Canadian labour market data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Surprise CPI and investment data

Fri, 28 Nov 2025 04:18:30 +0000

It was a week full of surprises in Australia. The inaugural monthly CPI data came in stronger than expected for October. Business investment and construction work done blew away forecasts and suggest Q3 GDP will be strong. Trent Saunders and Belinda Allen unpack the data and contemplate what this means for the RBA.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

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FX Weekly – Fed’s Beige book, RBNZ meeting, UK budget and Japan’s FX intervention

Sun, 23 Nov 2025 23:03:13 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Australia’s October CPI, the Federal reserve’s Beige book, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy announcement and the UK Autumn Budget. They also discuss the possibility of FX intervention in Japan.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

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Aussie Weekly - Deep dive on inflation

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 05:55:38 +0000

Wages data and the RBA minutes were broadly as expected so the focus now turns to next week's inflation data for October. This will be the first release of a full monthly CPI in Australia, bringing it in line with global best practice. In this week's podcast, inflation guru Trent Saunders and economist Harry Ottley discuss the new monthly CPI and what to expect from it and inflation over the next couple of years.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

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FX Weekly: US Payrolls, Australia’s Wage Data and Japan’s FX Intervention Risks

Sun, 16 Nov 2025 22:31:54 +0000

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the much-anticipated US payrolls data, Australia’s Wage Price Index and RBA meeting minutes, and the risk of FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

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Aussie Weekly - A week of strong economic data

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 05:41:02 +0000

In this week's podcast, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley discuss what was a very strong week of Australian economic data in what is a capacity constrained economy. The highlight was a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.3% pointing to a resilient Aussie labour market.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank’s proprietary data that is sourced from its internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

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FX Weekly: China’s Monthly Data Dump and Labour Market Data from Australia and the UK

Sun, 09 Nov 2025 23:47:24 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including China’s monthly data dump for October and labour market data from Australia and the UK.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Cautious RBA on hold as expected

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 04:55:29 +0000

In this episode, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen break down the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.6%. They discuss the RBA’s cautious approach, the balance between inflation pressures and a softening labour market, and what the latest data means for the economic outlook.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CPI shock and RBA call change

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 05:39:08 +0000

It was a busy week of economic news but the September quarter CPI stole the show. The policy relevant trimmed mean lifted by 1%/qtr and 3.0%/yr amongst broad based pricing pressures. In this podcast Belinda Allen and Trent Saunders unpack the result and why it means rate cuts are off the agenda for the RBA.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly – President Trump-Xi meeting, Australian inflation data, and central bank decisions

Sun, 26 Oct 2025 22:14:48 +0000

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the latest US-China trade talks, Australian inflation data, and central bank meetings in the US, Canada, Japan, and the Eurozone.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - All is calm ahead of Q3 25 CPI

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 05:33:28 +0000

It was a quiet week locally but next week brings the all important Q3 25 CPI report. In this week's podcast, Economists Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley take a deep-dive on what to expect when the inflation data drops on Wednesday.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - China’s data dump, Japanese politics, the ongoing US government shutdown and the latest inflation data from around the world.

Sun, 19 Oct 2025 22:21:45 +0000

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including China’s data dump, Japanese politics, the ongoing US government shutdown and the latest inflation data from around the world.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly – Unemployment rate lifts to 4.5%

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 00:50:14 +0000

In this week’s podcast CBA economists Belinda Allen and Trent Saunders unpack the shock lift in the unemployment rate and what is means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Belinda also dives into details of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for September and Trent runs through some research on the neutral cash rate.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - US-China trade tensions, FOMC Chair Powell’s speech, and the evolving political situation in Japan and France.

Sun, 12 Oct 2025 22:10:35 +0000

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including rising US-China trade tensions, FOMC Chair Powell’s remarks on the economy and monetary policy, and the evolving political situation in Japan and France.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Consumer sentiment dips

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 05:15:28 +0000

In this week’s podcast, CBA economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss the latest consumer sentiment data, trends in household spending, the outlook for employment and the labour market, recent RBA communications, and key economic developments both in Australia and offshore.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - US government shutdown, Japan’s leadership race, and Canada’s labour market data

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 22:50:44 +0000

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US government shutdown, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership race results, and Canada’s labour market data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly – RBA on Hold Until 2026

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 06:25:32 +0000

In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen unpacks the key takeaways from the September RBA Board meeting and explains why CBA now expects the next rate cut to come in February 2026. Senior Economist Trent Saunders and Economist Harry Ottley also share insights on the latest economic data and news, including household spending trends and the Commonwealth Treasury’s Final Budget Outcome for 2024/25.

You can access our research here: www.commbankresearch.com.au.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly – US non-farm payrolls, RBA meeting, Japanese’s LDP election

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 02:03:07 +0000

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US non-farm payrolls, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting and Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership race.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Hot CPI casts doubt on November rate cut

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 04:51:27 +0000

In this week's podcast, economists Harry Ottley, Belinda Allen and Trent Saunders discuss the stronger-than-expected August Monthly CPI and its implications for the RBA.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - A quieter week for currency markets ahead

Sun, 21 Sep 2025 22:53:47 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US PCE deflator and Australia’s CPI indicator.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Softer labour market data ahead of CPI

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 04:57:30 +0000

Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss August’s Labor Force data, which showed steady unemployment at 4.2% but softer employment and participation. They explore implications for the RBA, population growth normalising faster than expected, and what that means for labour supply. Looking ahead, they preview the August CPI indicator, expecting a slight easing to 2.7%, and highlight market services inflation as a key focus. Overall, the outlook remains positive with inflation near target and growth improving.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly – Four major central banks meet this week

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 23:18:39 +0000

It’s a huge week for currency markets, with four major central bank meetings — the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss their expectations for each central bank and the potential impact on currency markets.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Further signs that the economy is improving

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 07:01:04 +0000

Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen break down the latest Aussie economic data, including consumer spending and sentiment trends, business surveys, and the crucial shift from non-market to market sector jobs. They discuss why the unemployment rate is expected to rise only modestly, the risks if the market sector can’t absorb slack, and what it all means for interest rates and Australia’s economic outlook.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - US payrolls revisions, US CPI and French and Japanese political uncertainty will drive currencies this week.

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 00:57:01 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top drivers of currency markets this week.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Economic growth surprises to the upside

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 05:20:37 +0000

In this episode of the CommBank Global Economic and Markets Research Aussie Weekly podcast, Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen unpack a data-heavy week for the Australian economy. They dive into the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures, the evolving handover from public to private sector-led growth, and what it means for the RBA’s rate outlook. The pair also explore July’s household spending data, rising home prices, and building approvals, before previewing key upcoming releases including consumer and business sentiment and CommBank’s Household Spending Insights report for August.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly – US non-farm payrolls, RBA speeches, Japanese wages growth

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:41:28 +0000

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US non-farm payrolls, comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s officials and Japan’s labour cash earnings.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - July CPI surprise, RBA and GDP building blocks

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 04:56:35 +0000

This week Belinda Allen wraps up the surprise CPI result for July and unpacks the RBA Board Meeting Minutes for August. June quarter GDP is released next week and Belinda discusses where the drivers and the number sits before the rest of the partial data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - Australian dollar to ease this week

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:50:42 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including a modest unwound on recent Australian dollar strength, the Australian CPI and Canadian GDP.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly - Economy on the improve

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 05:38:47 +0000

This week, economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss some positive signs for the Australian consumer and preview a fairly quiet week ahead.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A cross-country analysis of budget trends

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 06:57:51 +0000

Carol Kong and Samara Hammoud unpack the latest trends in government debt across advanced economies. From the US and Japan to Australia and Europe, they explore what’s driving rising budget deficits, how markets are reacting, and whether current debt levels are sustainable.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

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FX Weekly - Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s Jackon Hole speech will be the key driver of currencies this week

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:42:12 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top 3 drivers of currencies this week including Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech, CPI inflation data and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate announcement.

Disclaimer:

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Aussie Weekly - RBA cuts, labour market tracking as forecast

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 03:39:56 +0000

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.60% this week. In today's podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley discuss the decision and dissect the key labour market data that was out this week. They also cover off the CommBank HSI which is showing some green shoots for consumer spending.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly - US CPI and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision will be important for the Australian dollar this week.

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 01:35:56 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, RBA decision and Australian and UK labour market data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Aussie Weekly - Lock in an RBA rate cut next week

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 06:53:33 +0000

With a 25bp cut from the RBA all but locked in, CBA Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley break down what’s driving the decision. They unpack this week’s data, including signs of life in household spending and Australia’s strong position in the global trade war. Plus, a look ahead to next week’s key labour market releases—the Q2 25 Wage Price Index and the June Labour Force Survey.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly – US Jobs Report, 1 August Tariff Announcement, and Bank of England July meeting.

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 00:44:50 +0000

Joe Capurso and Samara Hammoud discuss the key influences on currencies this week including the July US jobs report, tariffs announced on 1 August, and the Bank of England’s July monetary policy decision.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Q2 25 CPI rubber-stamps August rate cut

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 05:03:26 +0000

The much-anticipated Q2 2025 CPI data is in, and the news is very positive for both the inflation outlook and the prospect of further interest rate cuts. CBA Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley explain why the data effectively rubber-stamps a rate cut in August. They also unpack a range of other economic releases, including the final ever retail trade report.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly - Tariff news and central bank announcements in focus this week.

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 03:09:03 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top three influences on currency markets this week include tariff news, three central bank announcements and the Australian CPI.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - All eyes on Q2 25 CPI

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 02:12:26 +0000

In this episode, economist Harry Ottley discusses the communication from RBA this week and previews the all important Q2 25 CPI data due next week.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly – US tariffs, ECB meeting and Japan’s upper house election

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 02:48:05 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the US-led tariff war, the European Central Bank policy meeting and Japan’s upper house election.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Labour market weakens in June

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 04:39:20 +0000

The main talking point this week was the Australian labour market after the labour force survey weakened in June. Economists Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen talk through the data and what it means for the RBA going forward.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly – US tariffs, US June CPI and China’s monthly ‘data dump’

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 00:58:57 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the US-led tariff war, the US June CPI report and China’s monthly economic activity data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - RBA shocks market with on hold decision

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 08:08:14 +0000

The big news this week was a surprise on hold decision from the RBA. Economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley run through the decision, and why it was such a shock. They also review the CommBank HSI data and preview the labour force survey due next week.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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FX Weekly - Tariff news to drive currency markets this week

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:44:09 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key drivers of currency markets this week including important tariff news and the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcements.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Consumer data remains mixed ahead of RBA July meeting

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 05:50:25 +0000

There was a steady stream of data this week headlined by retail trade and the ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator. The data was broadly mixed but taken in totality, the Australian consumer remains subdued. Elsewhere, home prices increased again in June and there was a rebound in building approvals. In this week's podcast, economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley talk through this data and preview the RBA policy meeting next week.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - US trade negotiations, US labour market data and Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 01:03:13 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US trade negotiations, US labour market data and the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Aussie Weekly - RBA to now cut rates in July and CPI wrap up

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 04:28:55 +0000

A benign monthly CPI print for May led us to bring forward our next RBA rate cut forecast to July. Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley from the Australian Economics team run through the details of the change in call as well as deep dive into the CPI print.

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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FX Weekly - Middle East conflict, NATO summit and Bank of Japan policy outlook

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 01:37:30 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week including the conflict in the Middle East, the annual NATO summit as well as the Bank of Japan’s interest rate outlook.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Labour force down, monthly CPI to go

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 06:22:13 +0000

The labour force survey was broadly a non-event, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The final key data point ahead of the July RBA Board meeting is due next week: the monthly CPI indicator. Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss the key takeaways from this week and preview the upcoming inflation data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - Middle East conflict and central banks meetings can drive currencies this week.

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:31:15 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key influences on currencies this week include conflict in the Middle East and meetings by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - Surveys point to subdued economy ahead of labour force survey

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 05:40:32 +0000

It was quieter week for Aussie economy data this week with private sector releases dominating. The CommBank HSI as well as updates on business and consumer sentiment continue to point to subdued economic conditions in Australia. Next week, the May labour force survey is in focus.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

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Opportunities and threats from trade diversion

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 05:19:52 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss insights from Kristina’s note on trade diversion

Disclaimer:

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This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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FX Weekly - US CPI, UK labour market data and US-China trade talks

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 01:18:29 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US consumer price index for May, UK labour market data and US-China trade talks.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - RBA minutes hold the line and GDP disappoints

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 06:05:54 +0000

It was an important week with the RBA minutes and Q1 25 GDP data released. The RBA minutes retained a dovish tone and economic growth disappointed keeping a July rate cut very much in play.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - Tariffs, US economic data and central bank meetings will drive currencies this week.

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 00:21:44 +0000

In this week’s episode Joseph Capurso and Kristina Clifton discuss the likely drivers of currencies this week including tariffs, US economic data and the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada interest rate announcements.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: April CPI and what to expect for GDP

Fri, 30 May 2025 08:17:07 +0000

The week saw the release of the April CPI which showed an unchanged print at 2.4% rather than a fall. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu discuss why it was stronger than expected and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade disappointed and the building blocks for GDP were also released. Next week all eyes will be on Q1 25 GDP and the RBA Minutes for May.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Higher tariffs on Europe, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and Canadian GDP data will be important for currencies this week.

Mon, 26 May 2025 00:46:24 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including higher tariffs on Europe, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and Canadian GDP data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly - RBA delivers dovish cut

Fri, 23 May 2025 06:56:13 +0000

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% on Tuesday. The post-meeting communication was more dovish than most expected. In this week's podcast, Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley from the Australian Economics team discuss at the decision itself and what it means for the prospect of future rate cuts.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - US government’s credit rating downgrade, G7 meeting and RBA meeting

Mon, 19 May 2025 02:08:27 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets, including the US government’s credit rating downgrade, the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: Wages and labour data done, next stop the RBA meeting

Fri, 16 May 2025 05:37:00 +0000

It was a big week of data with wages and labour force printing above economist expectations, but in line with RBA forecasts. Belinda Allen and Gareth Aird wrap up the week and then turn their attention to the May RBA Board Meeting. A 25bp rate cut is expected.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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US – China trade war de-escalation

Thu, 15 May 2025 05:12:02 +0000

Join CBA’s Head of International and Sustainability Economics, Joseph Capurso, and Currency Strategist and China Specialist, Carol Kong, as they delve into the latest on trade wars and economics.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - The US CPI and Australian labour market data will be important for the Australian dollar this week.

Mon, 12 May 2025 01:17:35 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences on the Australian dollar this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and US trade developments.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: What are the economic implications of Labor's election victory?

Fri, 09 May 2025 07:45:13 +0000

This week, CBA economist Harry Ottley discusses the economic implications of Labor's election victory with Chief Economist Luke Yeaman. Luke takes a deep dive into Labor's economic mandate for the next term, current economic conditions, and key challenges ahead. Senior Economist Stephen Wu then joins the podcast to review this week's key data flow and preview the important week ahead.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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FX Weekly – Possible trade deals, FOMC and Bank of England meetings

Mon, 05 May 2025 00:33:33 +0000

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including possible trade deals, the Federal Reserve’s meeting and the Bank of England’s meeting.

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Aussie Weekly: Underlying inflation supports a 25bp rate cut in May, but it’s not a done deal

Fri, 02 May 2025 05:31:59 +0000

This week, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird discuss the March quarter inflation numbers and what it means for the upcoming May RBA Board meeting.

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FX Weekly: Softer US economic data will weigh on the US dollar and support the Australian dollar this week.

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 00:44:19 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top three influences on currency markets this week including US economic data, the Australian CPI and the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement.

Disclaimer:

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This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Aussie Weekly: Calm before the CPI storm

Sun, 27 Apr 2025 21:00:00 +0000

The S&P Global PMI was the lone domestic release out last week but the week ahead is much busier. The highlight will be the Q1 2025 CPI which CBA Research believe will rubber stamp an interest rate cut in May.

Disclaimer:

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This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Aussie weekly: Labour market cooling and RBA says May is an opportune time to revisit policy

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 05:34:22 +0000

It was a quieter week in financial markets. Locally the highlight was the March labour force release showing an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Digging deeper though there are signs the labour market is cooling. The RBA Minutes highlight growing global concerns but local economic data over the next month will be important. The Minutes note May will be an opportune time to revist policy.

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Decarbonising Buses – Two-Speed Lane?

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 07:03:36 +0000

Buses can be categorised into two markets: the public and private markets. In our latest episode, we discuss the drivers and hurdles for bus decarbonisation across both public and private bus segments.

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FX Weekly – Tariffs, potential Chinese policy stimulus, ECB and BoC meetings.

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 01:33:05 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US tariffs, potential policy stimulus announcement from China as well as monetary policy decisions from the European Central bank and the Bank of Canada.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Aussie Weekly: Tariff volatility, household spending and labour market preview

Sun, 13 Apr 2025 21:00:00 +0000

Another volatile week in global markets. The team breaks down the four reasons why President Trump is pursuing tariffs and the impact on Australia. Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen also discuss the latest CBA Household Spending Indicator for March and how rising global uncertainty could be a headwind for the predicted consumer recovery. Finally it is labour force week and after a soft print in February we preview what we expect to happen.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - Tariff news will continue to impact on currencies

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:50:53 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on the Australian dollar this week including tariff news, US economic data and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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Aussie Weekly: RBA leaves cash rate on hold amid global uncertainty

Sun, 06 Apr 2025 20:50:00 +0000

It was a wild week in global markets. The RBA left the cash rate on hold on Tuesday, but the news was quickly swamped by news of President Trump's so called 'reciprocal tariffs' on Thursday morning Sydney time. Amongst all this, there was a string of local economic data in Australia. In this week's podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley sit down to make sense of a very busy week.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly – ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, US payrolls and RBA meeting

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 00:06:37 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currencies this week, including President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of a new tariff regime, US economic data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision.

Disclaimer:

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This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: Good signs on inflation ahead of RBA meeting

Sun, 30 Mar 2025 19:45:00 +0000

Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird first discuss last week’s February CPI numbers and the Budget. Of the two, the weaker-than-expected CPI indicator has more bearing on near-term monetary policy, including the April RBA Board meeting. But the RBA is unlikely to see the inflation data as sufficient, nor the recent data flow as conclusive enough for an April rate cut. Gareth highlights the importance of the RBA post-decision messaging.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Budget 2025-26

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 05:24:01 +0000

The 2025-26 Federal Budget was delivered last night by Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers. In this Podcast, Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Senior Economist Belinda Allen take our listeners through all the key points from the Budget.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly – New US tariff regime will drive currencies in coming weeks or months

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 00:15:38 +0000

In this week’s podcast, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss President Trump’s announcement of a new tariff regime and what it means for currencies. Financial markets will also closely watch economic data releases this week, including US consumer confidence, US personal consumption expenditures index and Australia’s CPI indicator.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: Labour force lottery strikes again ahead of Federal Budget and CPI

Sun, 23 Mar 2025 19:45:00 +0000

The labour force survey was an unusual set of numbers last week, headlined by a large fall in employment. The Federal Budget will be handed down this week but CBA are of the view there won't be too much in the way of new announcements. The Monthly CPI Indicator is also due and it could be critical in determining the RBA's next move. In this week's podcast, Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen take a deep drive on the upcoming Federal Budget, try to make sense of the labour force data and preview the February Monthly CPI data.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly: Currencies can react to Germany’s fiscal package and the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings this week.

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 23:54:30 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currencies this week including the approval of Germany’s fiscal package and the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie weekly: CommBank HSI for February lacklustre, labour market data up next

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 20:00:00 +0000

A quieter week locally but Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley deep dive into the CommBank Househould Spending Insights for February as well as the latest business and consumer surveys. Labour market data is up next and they also discuss the aluminium and steel tariffs imposed on Australia by the US.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly – Fiscal plans in Europe, US CPI, Bank of Canada meeting and Japan’s ‘Shunto’

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 00:45:27 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key drivers for currencies this week including the fiscal plans in Europe, the US consumer price index for February, the Bank of Canada’s policy meeting and Japan’s Shunto wage negotiations.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: Australian economic growth picks up and hawkish RBA minutes

Sun, 09 Mar 2025 20:00:00 +0000

The December quarter National Accounts revealed the economy grew by 0.6%/qtr, but the detail shows private sector momentum was weaker. Gareth Aird and Stephen Wu also discuss the hawkish RBA Minutes, where the RBA has gone out of their way to not give forward guidance.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - Tariffs and Chinese stimulus will be important for currencies this week

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 00:07:47 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key drivers for currencies this week including potential additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and China’s “Two Sessions” meetings.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: January CPI unchanged and big data week ahead

Sun, 02 Mar 2025 20:20:02 +0000

Last week the January CPI Indicator was unchanged at 2.5%/yr against expectations of a lift. Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen discuss the details and the implications for the RBA. This week we are spoilt for choice data wise, December quarter GDP and consumer spending for January will be the focus.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly: US PCE, Aussie CPI and German election

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 00:35:46 +0000

Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including the US personal consumption expenditures index for January, the Australian consumer price index for January and the German election.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: RBA cuts cash rate to 4.10%

Sun, 23 Feb 2025 20:00:00 +0000

Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%. Following this, key data on wages and unemployment was released in one of the biggest weeks for the Australian economy in a long time. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist Belinda Allen take a deep dive into the decision itself, as well as the barrage of communication from the RBA following it. They also analyse the labour market data released last week and preview a quieter week ahead.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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FX Weekly: RBA, RBNZ and more tariff announcements

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 00:18:58 +0000

Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting and US tariffs.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: RBA to cut rates before jobs and wages data

Sun, 16 Feb 2025 19:30:00 +0000

CBA expects the RBA to deliver a 25bp cut at its February meeting. Financial markets also anticipate such an outcome. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics, and Stephen Wu, Senior Economist, discuss why the RBA will cut the cash rate on Tuesday but are unlikely to commit to further cuts just yet. Plus, what to expect from the January labour force survey and the Q4 24 wages data.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

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FX Weekly: Tariff announcements can weigh on the Australian dollar this week

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 01:25:58 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key influences on currency markets this week. Tariff announcements could push the Australian dollar lower. Markets will also watch FOMC Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress and the US CPI for January.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: Spending data picks up

Sun, 09 Feb 2025 19:45:00 +0000

There was a steady stream of data out last week including retail trade and the ABS monthly household spending indicator (MHSI). Overall, the spending data was stronger than we expected for the final quarter of last year but it shouldn't have too much of an impact on the February RBA Board meeting. This week, there we will release our CommBank HSI and there will be an update on business and consumer sentiment, but market focus is squarely on the February RBA Board meeting.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

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FX Weekly – Tariffs, Bank of England meeting and NZ labour market data

Sun, 02 Feb 2025 23:49:36 +0000

Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US tariffs, the Bank of England’s policy meeting and New Zealand’s Q4 24 labour market data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: CPI greenlights RBA interest rate cut

Sun, 02 Feb 2025 19:45:00 +0000

The Q4 24 CPI data was a welcome set of numbers and in our view, greenlights an interest rate cut from the RBA later this month. In this week's podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist Stephen Wu take a closer look at the CPI data and the implications for the RBA, and preview the spending data coming out this week.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sustainable Economics: Lowering truck emissions - limited today, promising future

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 05:34:34 +0000

Trucks contribute to 27% of road transport emissions although being only 3% of vehicles in Australia. Despite low uptake of low-emission vehicles in Australia and globally, logistics and freight corporates are leading the way with various electric truck trials. In this episode, John Oh, Sustainable Economist, and Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, sit down to discuss the opportunities and challenges with decarbonising trucking.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly - Tariffs, the Australian CPI and central banks announcements can drive currencies this week

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 00:24:29 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the major influences on the currencies this week including tariff news, Australian inflation data and several central bank interest rate announcements.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Aussie Weekly: All eyes on Q4 24 CPI

Mon, 27 Jan 2025 20:40:26 +0000

While President Trump continues to dominate world news and global markets, the domestic focus this week will be on the critical Q4 2024 CPI data which could make or break the case for a February rate cut. In this week's podcast, Economist, Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Stephen Wu take a deep dive on what we are expecting when the data prints at 11:30am Wednesday Sydney time.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Australian economy in 2025

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 02:48:15 +0000

The outlook for the Australian economy looks brighter in 2025 driven by expected interest rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team deep dives into the outlook for growth, the labour market, inflation, wages, investment and housing.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly – President Trump’s inauguration, NZ CPI and Bank of Japan’s meeting

Sun, 19 Jan 2025 23:44:29 +0000

Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including President Trump’s inauguration, New Zealand’s Q4 24 CPI and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CommBank Household Spending Insights December 2024

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 22:02:29 +0000

The choppy holiday spending period continued in December with a fall of 1.8% in the month in the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. This fall followed gains in October and November. Four categories fell in the month with Household goods recording the largest fall. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details of the HSI as well as the outlook for spending in the latest podcast.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.”  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - US CPI and Australian labour force data will be important for the Australian dollar this week

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 00:58:17 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the top three influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour force data and China’s fourth quarter GDP which will tell us if the Chinese authorities met their 2024 economic growth target of ‘around 5%’.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly: A very good inflation report to start the year

Sun, 12 Jan 2025 20:11:13 +0000

In this week’s episode – the first for 2025 – Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s November inflation report and why it’s positive news for the Australian inflation story. They also dive into the various spending measures and cover what to look out for in this Thursday’s jobs report.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly: RBA pivots dovish before shock fall in unemployment rate pares rate cut hopes

Sun, 15 Dec 2024 20:52:37 +0000

It was a wild week for Australian financial market participants. The much-awaited dovish pivot from the RBA Board arrived on Tuesday with both the statement and post-meeting press conference striking a more optimistic tone on inflation and the outlook for policy. But this renewed market optimism around the prospect of a February rate cut took a hit when the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in data out on Thursday. In our final Aussie Weekly of the year, Senior Economist Stephen Wu and Economist Harry Ottley discuss the developments from last week and their implications, and briefly preview the light data flow out in the coming week.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CommBank Household Spending Insights November 2024

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 22:03:51 +0000

Black Friday sales saw a lift in the CommBank Household Spending Insights in November 2024. The HSI rose by 1.3%/mth led by Household goods. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in this podcast and discuss the outlook for December and 2025 given the interest rate outlook.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly: US CPI and central bank announcements will be important for currencies

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 01:56:20 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and three central bank interest rate announcements.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aussie Weekly: GDP recap and RBA preview

Sun, 08 Dec 2024 20:16:23 +0000

A busy week locally with the Q3 24 GDP data. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the weak result and discuss the consumer spending component of the data given its importance. Another busy week looms with the RBA Board meeting and November labour force data.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance 

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly: US labour market data, Australian GDP and French politics to impact currencies this week

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 00:24:25 +0000

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week, including US labour market data, Australian GDP and political uncertainty in France.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics Weekly – Monthly CPI showing positive signs ahead of Q3 24 GDP

Sun, 01 Dec 2024 20:15:21 +0000

In this week’s podcast, Senior Economist Stephen Wu and Economist Harry Ottley take a close look at the monthly CPI data from last week, with mostly good news to report. They also talk through the RBA Governor’s speech at the CEDA Annual Conference. They then turn to the week ahead and preview the all important Q3 24 National Accounts.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mandatory climate reporting in 2025 – the what, the why, and so what?

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 22:05:57 +0000

In 2025, mandatory climate reporting will be introduced and phased in over three years, impacting approximately 4,000 – 5,000 of the largest entities in Australia. In this episode, Commonwealth Bank’s sustainability economist, John Oh, sit down with Dennis Voznesenski to breakdown what climate reporting is, why mandatory climate reporting is being introduced, and whether the impact will be positive for reducing emissions in Australia.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global economy enters 2025 under cloud of uncertainty

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 00:53:36 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the outlook for the major economies in 2025, and expectations for central bank interest rates.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tax cuts and tax hikes: Make America Uncompetitive Again?

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 05:51:52 +0000

It’s been three weeks since the re-election of President Donald Trump. Two key proposed taxation policies have been increased tariffs and increased tax cuts for businesses and consumers that will be likely be implemented in 2025 and 2026, respectively. To put all of this into context, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss CBA’s latest view on the implications of these policies for the FOMC in 2025 and 2026.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FX Weekly - Updates from the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be important for currencies this week.

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 00:08:32 +0000

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the US PCE deflator, the Australian October CPI and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics Weekly: RBA Minutes a puzzle and monthly CPI preview

Sun, 24 Nov 2024 20:09:54 +0000

Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu reflect on last week’s RBA Board meeting minutes which created some confusion over the interest rate outlook. In particular the minutes noted the RBA is forward looking but at the same time noting they need to see more than one ‘good CPI print (CPI is a lagging indicator). They also preview the October monthly CPI where an unchanged headline rate of inflation is expected to print at 2.1%/yr.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How could President Trump and tariffs impact the Australian economy?

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 02:40:39 +0000

In a special podcast episode Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive into how the Australian economy could be impacted by a potential escalation in a trade war. In short the direct impact from US tariffs should be limited, but the indirect impact from a slowdown in China could be larger. While there remains uncertainty over the timing, size and duration of tariffs, there are mitigating factors that could help Australia. These include budget support in China, a flexible Australian dollar and easing in monetary and fiscal policy in Australia.

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FX Weekly – FX intervention in Japan getting closer

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 00:26:37 +0000

In this week’s podcast, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the ongoing capital flows into US dollar assets, the UK CPI and the possibility of FX intervention in Japan.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics Weekly: Labour and wages data create a puzzle

Sun, 17 Nov 2024 21:16:22 +0000

Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen deep dive into last week’s labour market and wages data. Softer wages growth but an unchanged unemployment rate hints there is more capacity in the labour market then the data suggests. This week is quiet with some RBA speeches and the Minutes out.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights October 2024

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 22:03:46 +0000

The CommBank HSI rose by 0.8% in October on stronger spending on Household goods, Recreation and Communications & Digital. Spending has been choppy in recent months with Utilities spend lower on rebates. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the key insights from the series and what it means for the RBA.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

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FX Weekly - US election news can still drive currency markets

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 02:13:34 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the key influences impacting on currencies this week including continued news on the US election, Chinese economic stimulus news and Australian and UK labour market data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics Weekly – Will Trump’s win impact the Australian Economy? + RBA on hold ahead of key labour market data

Sun, 10 Nov 2024 22:00:58 +0000

In this week’s Podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley from the Aussie economics team break down a wild week in world politics, markets, and the local economic news flow. They discuss if we have changed our view on the Australian economy based on the US election result, as well as the RBA Board’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold last week. Finally, they preview an important week for the Australian labour market with the October labour force survey and Q3 2024 Wage Price Index (WPI) both due.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

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FX Weekly - US election will drive currency markets this week

Mon, 04 Nov 2024 00:10:54 +0000

In this week’s episode we discuss the key drivers of the Australian dollar this week including the US election, RBA and Federal Reserve interest rate announcements, and the expected Chinese economic stimulus announcement.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economic Weekly: Inflation not falling quickly enough for a rate cut this year

Sun, 03 Nov 2024 20:34:07 +0000

All eyes were on the Q3 24 CPI data last week. While inflation continues to moderate, the disinflation process is not occurring quickly enough to warrant a rate cut by year end. As a result, we have shifted our base case and now expect the first interest rate cut to arrive in February next year. In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, Senior Economist, Stephen Wu and Economist, Harry Ottley discuss the inflation data in detail and outline why we pushed back our expectations for the cutting cycle. They also preview this week’s RBA Board meeting and cover off the other data released last week, with a focus on consumer spending.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

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FX Weekly – Key economic data in Australia and the US to drive currencies, more volatility ahead for the Japanese yen

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 02:09:02 +0000

In this episode, Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton talk through the key economic data in Australia and the US that can drive currencies this week. They also discuss their expectations for the Japanese yen given the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and political uncertainty.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics Weekly: All eyes on CPI and spend data

Sun, 27 Oct 2024 20:07:56 +0000

After a quiet weekly locally the data flow ramps up with the release of the important September quarter inflation figures. Senior Economists Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the expectations for the Q3 24 CPI and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade data and the ABS HSI measure is released for September and can partially settle the debate about the consumer response to the income tax cuts. A full read though will have to wait to the Q3 24 National Accounts.

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FX Weekly - US election getting closer, Bank of Canada could deliver a large cut this week

Sun, 20 Oct 2024 23:43:39 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting currency markets including the upcoming US election, interest rate differentials which have moved in favour of the Australian dollar, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this week.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics Weekly – Strong employment growth reduces odds of near-term rate cut

Sun, 20 Oct 2024 20:17:05 +0000

The strength of the labour market continues to surprise. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the recent strength in the Australian labour market and outline the implications for the RBA. They also talk through some of the thematic research the Aussie economics team published last week on inflation, rents and population.

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Global Economics - Interest rate cuts to improve global economic outlook in 2025

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 04:44:02 +0000

The global interest rate cut cycle has started. And there are many more interest rate cuts ahead across most major economies. CBA’s view is that the interest rate cuts will improve global economic outlook in 2025. In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss CBA’s latest view and breakdown developments across the major economies.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights September 2024

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 02:41:00 +0000

The CommBank HSI fell by 0.7% in September as consumers pulled back spending after the Father’s Day boosted splurge in August. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss the all the key takeaways from the September HSI in today’s podcast.

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FX Weekly - Chinese stimulus disappoints markets

Mon, 14 Oct 2024 02:38:43 +0000

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Chinese fiscal stimulus, Australian labour market data, the NZ CPI and the ECB’s interest rate announcement.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly – Less hawkish RBA minutes, labour market in focus

Sun, 13 Oct 2024 20:19:18 +0000

In this weeks podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird and Economist Harry Ottley talk through the RBA’s less hawkish communication from last week and touch on the private sector surveys that were released. They then move on to preview this week, with the September labour force survey in focus.

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FX Weekly - Middle East conflict can weigh on the Australian dollar

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 00:05:14 +0000

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting on currencies markets including Middle East conflict, potential fiscal stimulus from China and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: Retail trade jumps ahead of RBA communication spree

Sun, 06 Oct 2024 19:42:04 +0000

In this weeks podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through the current crosscurrents in the spending data in Australia and explain why the date of fathers day likely boosted the August retail trade figure. They also break down the other economic data from last week and preview a busy upcoming week of communication from the RBA.

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FX Weekly - The US labour market is focus this week, further Chinese economic stimulus could support AUD

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:17:15 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top there influences on currencies this week including US labour market data, the possibility of more Chinese economic stimulus and the new Prime Minister in Japan.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics weekly: RBA and August CPI deep dive

Sun, 29 Sep 2024 21:19:56 +0000

Last week the RBA held rates and the August monthly CPI dipped to 2.7%/yr, both as expected. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu from the Australian Economics team deep dive into the RBA meeting, including a less hawkish press conference as well as the broadening disinflation trend in the August data. Stephen also discusses how the energy rebates will impact household consumption over the third quarter, how this differs to RBA forecasts and the upcoming retail trade data.

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The PBoC offers the Chinese economy a helping hand

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 06:04:55 +0000

In this podcast, Kristina Clifton sits down with Carol Kong to talk through all the stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities this week and their implications for the Chinese economy. We continue to expect the government will deliver more fiscal stimulus soon. The risk remains China’s economic growth will undershoot our forecast of 4.9% this year if our expected fiscal stimulus fails to materialise. But economic growth in 2025 may be stronger than we forecast if a big budget package is released.

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FX Weekly - RBA in focus this week

Mon, 23 Sep 2024 00:55:08 +0000

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the US inflation, and the RBA and PBoC’s interest rate decisions, and the likely impact on the Australian dollar.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Labour market remains resilient ahead of RBA Board meeting, CPI data

Sun, 22 Sep 2024 21:14:41 +0000

This week, Stephen Wu, Senior Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss last week’s Aussie labour market data and explain how it was the trigger to push back CBA’s forecast for interest rate relief. They also look ahead and preview the RBA Board meeting and monthly CPI data this week.

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FX Weekly - The US Federal Reserve will begin their cutting cycle this week

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 00:09:56 +0000

This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings and impacts on currency markets.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: Weak survey data but all eyes on August labour market data

Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:09:37 +0000

In the Australian Economics Weekly podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist reflect on the weak consumer and business sentiment surveys released past week. Particularly the price signals from the business survey bode well for the inflation outlook. All eyes will be on the August labour market data released this week. We expect the unemployment rate to lift to 4.3% which would reinforce our rate cut call by the RBA before the end of the year.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights August 2024

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 23:02:47 +0000

An early Father’s Day saw a lift in spending in August. The CommBank Household Spending Insights Index rose by 1.8%/mth with gains in spending on Household goods and Hospitality. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast. Education spending also rose while Utilities spend fell due to government rebates. Annual growth remains soft at 3.7%/yr and we expect interest rate relief will be needed to boost consumer spending.

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FX Weekly - US inflation, ECB monetary policy and Chinese economic data

Mon, 09 Sep 2024 01:46:16 +0000

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the consumer price index in the US, the Chinese economic data dump for August, and the European central bank’s monetary policy announcement.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: Deep dive in June quarter GDP

Sun, 08 Sep 2024 21:37:02 +0000

This week Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the June quarter GDP data. A soft result overall with growth of just 0.2% for the quarter and just 1% for the year. Weak consumption, strong public demand are discussed as well as the latest on household incomes, savings and productivity growth. A quiet week ahead locally with survey data out and also the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for August.

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Economics Weekly: July CPI wrap up and GDP preview

Sun, 01 Sep 2024 21:21:41 +0000

This week Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird deep dive into the July CPI data as well as the upcoming June quarter GDP data. Stephen notes disinflation broadened in July, beyond the electricity rebates. July retail trade was soft given the start of income tax cuts. While Gareth discuss the June quarter GDP print which should show continued modest growth in the Australian economy.

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FX Weekly - The US labour market is front and centre this week

Sun, 01 Sep 2024 21:20:53 +0000

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets: Australian GDP data, a series of US labour market reports and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Electrifying business car fleets: Exploring three pathways to decarbonisation

Wed, 28 Aug 2024 04:33:14 +0000

Electrifying Australian cars have involved the uptake of various low-emission technologies ranging from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss the themes of electrification in Australia’s car market. Looking to the future, they identify the different ways in which the supply of electric vehicles could help meet demand preferences for various buyers in Australia.

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FX Weekly: An inflation-centric week

Mon, 26 Aug 2024 03:19:20 +0000

In this week’s episode, Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso discuss the top four influences affecting currency markets: Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the US personal consumption expenditures inflation report, the Australian monthly CPI indicator for July, and European consumer price index for August.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: RBA minutes reiterate hawkish tilt, busy data week ahead

Sun, 25 Aug 2024 21:23:55 +0000

This week, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu discuss the RBA minutes released last week and look ahead to a busy week for Australian economic data.

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FX Weekly: Jackson Hole takes centre stage

Sun, 18 Aug 2024 21:23:34 +0000

We discuss the top four influences on currency markets this week, including a speech by FOMC Chair at Jackson Hole, the minutes of the RBA’s August meeting, Japan’s consumer price index and European wages.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: Labour market cools, RBA minutes headline quiet week ahead

Sun, 18 Aug 2024 21:07:20 +0000

In this week’s podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through last weeks labour force survey and why despite strong employment outcomes, the unemployment rate continues to rise. They also discuss the impact a loosening labour market is having on wages growth and preview the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out tomorrow.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights July 2024

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 23:03:46 +0000

The first look at household spending in July showed no change according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. The index was flat in seasonally adjusted terms, with annual growth sitting at 4.5% in original terms. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in the latest podcast and note there was no noticeable impact from the start of income tax cuts on 1 July. A wide divergence in category performance remains in place with insurance and health top performers with hospitality and household goods at the bottom. The outlook for consumer spending remains constrained, with the tailwind from pent up savings due to be over by end of 2024. We expect interest rate cuts will be needed to see a meaningful lift in consumer spending.

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Economics Weekly: RBA deep dive ahead of labour and wage data

Sun, 11 Aug 2024 21:29:08 +0000

It was a big week with the RBA August Board Meeting and a hawkish tone in the statement and the press conference. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist deep dive into the meeting as well as the forecast updates in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The week ahead is also busy with the release of July employment data as well as the June quarter Wage Price Index, both important for the interest rate outlook.

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FX Weekly: After the volatility comes key economic data in the US, the UK and Australia

Sun, 11 Aug 2024 21:27:58 +0000

In this week’s episode we discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the US CPI, Australian employment and wages, and UK employment and CPI.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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FX Weekly: Market volatility surges because of US recession fears

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 01:36:41 +0000

This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the key influences on currency markets, including rising concerns of a US recession, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s impending interest rate decision, and New Zealand’s key employment data.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: CPI wrap up and RBA preview

Sun, 04 Aug 2024 05:34:29 +0000

Finally the Q2 24 CPI printed last week. A softer than expected CPI print removed the chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu wrap up the data as well as preview the RBA meeting which should be a low key affair. We stick to our base case that an easing cycle can commence in November 2024.

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FX Weekly – Three important central bank meetings and the Australian CPI

Mon, 29 Jul 2024 03:19:03 +0000

This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings this week, that could influence the Australian dollar. They also discuss the upcoming Australian CPI, which is widely regarded to make or break the case for an Reserve Bank of Australian interest rate hike next week.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: All eyes on Q2 CPI

Sun, 28 Jul 2024 21:23:50 +0000

The long awaited Q2 24 CPI will be out Wednesday this week. How inflation prints will make or break the case for the RBA to increase interest rates at the August Board Meeting. In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley chat through why the CBA house view remains that a further interest rate rise will not be required but remains a clear risk. They also discuss the June retail trade figures due out this week, with soft print expected as consumers remain under pressure.

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FX Weekly – President Biden steps down, US growth and PCE print, European PMIs.

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 03:19:26 +0000

This week Joseph Capurso and John Oh sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the recent announcement of President Biden stepping down from the elections, upcoming data releases in the US and Europe.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly – Unemployment rises; building activity constrained

Sun, 21 Jul 2024 21:21:37 +0000

In this podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s June labour force survey and March quarter building activity data. Despite rising unemployment, the labour force report does not stand in the way of a rate hike of the Q2 24 inflation data is sufficiently strong. Current and future residential building activity remains constrained by various forces, with improved outcomes not likely until 2025.

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FX Weekly – Attempted assassination of President Trump, China’s Third Plenum, Bank of England policy outlook

Mon, 15 Jul 2024 02:17:09 +0000

This week Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the assassination attempt on President Trump, the Third Plenum in China, New Zealand and the UK CPIs.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

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Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly: Survey data soft ahead of key labour market data

Sun, 14 Jul 2024 21:07:11 +0000

Last week was quiet with three private sector surveys on the soft side and the release of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for June. Harry Ottley, Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talk through this data as well as preview the all important June labour market data this week. The outcome of the labour market data could have implications for our Reserve Bank of Australia view. Harry also runs through a recent research report on how the non-market sector has driven outcomes in employment over the past period.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights June 2024

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 23:05:38 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 0.6%/mth in June with the gains driven by Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods. Only partly offsetting these gains were falls in Transport, Education, Household goods and Utilities. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into details as well as the weakness in spending by renters who are significantly underperforming those with a mortgage and those that own their home outright.

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FX Weekly – French election, US CPI, Powell’s testimony, AUD/USD outlook

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 03:31:54 +0000

Carol Kong (Economist and FX strategist) and Kristina Clifton (Senior international economist and FX strategist) discuss the outcome of the French parliamentary election and implications for EUR/USD. They preview the US June CPI and FOMC Chair Jay Powell’s testimony which will likely be the main drivers of currencies this week. They also run through a few reasons for why they expect further upside in AUD/USD in the coming year.

Disclaimer:

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

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Economics Weekly - RBA minutes discuss upside and downside risks, quieter week ahead

Sun, 07 Jul 2024 21:17:43 +0000

On this weeks podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) discuss last week’s RBA minutes and retail trade numbers. They also outline our updated home price forecasts and preview a quieter week ahead.

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Sustainable - Reconsidering Australia-Europe economic ties

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 06:19:28 +0000

Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, joins John Oh, Sustainable Economist to discuss potential changes to Australia-Europe ties. In the episode, they find that the competition between the west and China in ‘green technology’ may encourage greater trade and investment between Australia, the European Union and the United Kingdom.

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Economics Weekly - May CPI Indicator, RBA and US trip thoughts

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 04:43:31 +0000

In the weekly Global Economic and Markets Research podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. They recap the stronger than expected May CPI Indicator and what it means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Stephen has just returned from the US and shares his thoughts on the US economy, politics ahead of the US election in November as well as industry policy, climate change and US China relations.

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Sustainable - Power down your bill: exploring options for small businesses.

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 00:06:34 +0000

Whilst electricity prices look to have settled in the coming 2024/25 financial year, further electricity rises look to be a credible risk. However, there are several options available for small businesses to reduce their exposure to volatile electricity prices. To discuss these options, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural and Sustainable Economist, sit down to discuss the findings of CBA’s latest research note.

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Economics Weekly – RBA keeps rates steady; CPI indicator ahead key

Sun, 23 Jun 2024 21:21:58 +0000

In this podcast, Economist Stephen Wu and Head of Australian Economics Gareth Aird sit down to discuss last week’s RBA Board meeting and the upcoming inflation data. Despite some tweaks to the post-meeting Statement, the RBA’s messaging remains the same: they are data dependent and will wait and see what the inflation data says. The CPI indicator out later this week will inform forecasts for the all-important June quarter CPI.

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Economics Weekly – Unemployment rate falls ahead of RBA Board meeting

Sun, 16 Jun 2024 21:05:48 +0000

In this podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) from the Aussie economics team review last week’s May labour force survey and preview the June RBA Board meeting. Last week, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in the last major economic data release before this week’s RBA Board meeting. Despite the fall in the unemployment rate, the labour market is broadly evolving as the RBA had forecast. This is also true of the activity side of the economy and so we expect the RBA will leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% in a straight-forward decision.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights May 2024

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 23:11:10 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 1.1%/mth in May in what has been a choppy few months for the index. Annual growth now sits at 4.3%/yr. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Harry Ottley Economist discuss the results from May and how looking through the volatility in recent months paints a subdued environment for the consumer. Circuit breakers start 1 July through income tax cuts and cost of living assistance by Federal and state governments. Harry and Belinda also discuss how consumers may respond and what this means for the outlook for interest rates.

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Economics Weekly – Soft growth, attention shifts to labour market

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 20:33:21 +0000

In this weeks podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird break down the soft Q1 24 GDP figures from last week and preview the critical May labour force survey that is due on Thursday.

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Economics Weekly – Mixed data ahead of Q1 24 GDP

Sun, 02 Jun 2024 21:06:18 +0000

The Australian economic data flow over the past week has highlighted three key themes. Soft retail sales data reinforced a weak household sector. A stronger than expected monthly CPI print led to questions over the stickiness of inflation. While capex data reinforced the positive contribution that investment is making in the economy. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Wu, Economist dive into the latest data prints and what it means for the RBA. A preview of the Q1 24 GDP print is also included.

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Economics Weekly – CPI, retail trade headline busy week ahead

Sun, 26 May 2024 21:09:18 +0000

In this Podcast, Economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss last week’s RBA Minutes and consumer sentiment data and preview a busy week ahead. The data flow this week is headlined by the April monthly CPI indicator and retail trade figures.

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Economics Weekly – Federal Budget handed down, soft wages and labour data

Sun, 19 May 2024 21:04:31 +0000

Last week was action packed for the Aussie economy. In this week’s podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley sit down to break it all down. They discuss the major takeaways from the 2024/25 Federal Budget and review the softer data on wages and the labour market from last week. They then briefly preview a much quieter upcoming week with the RBA minutes the highlight. Data on consumer sentiment and the local PMI’s are also due.

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Federal Budget 2024/25 - On the edge of the narrow path

Tue, 14 May 2024 13:57:00 +0000

The 2024/25 Federal Budget was handed down on 14 May 2024. After two consecutive surpluses, a larger than expected profile of budget deficits are forecast for 2024/25 and the years ahead as the Federal government lifts spending on new initiatives while previous revenue gains from a stronger than anticipated economy dry up. In the podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the fiscal outlook and what is means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. An overview of key policies and the economic forecasts are also discussed.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights April 2024

Mon, 13 May 2024 04:34:45 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) fell by 1% in April and annual growth also softened, down to just 2.6%, from 3.9%/yr in March. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the April results and the new additions to the HSI this month. For April, Food & beverage goods, Hospitality, Recreation and Transport all recorded falls. While Education, Utilities, Motor vehicle and Insurance recorded gains. From this month, a subset of the HSI data is used to breakdown spending by home ownership status; owner out rights, home owner with a mortgage and renters. We also introduce the HSI on per capita terms given the strong population growth in Australia.

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Economics Weekly - RBA holds, waiting for wages and labour force data

Sun, 12 May 2024 21:07:11 +0000

In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen sits down with Economist Stephen Wu to discuss a busy last week for the Australian economy and financial markets. They cover last week’s May RBA Board Meeting and the fall in retail trade volumes. They also preview an important week ahead with wages and labour force data due, and the 2024/25 Federal Budget on Tuesday night.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights March 2024

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 23:01:56 +0000

In this edition of the podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the subdued results of the March CommBank Household Spending Insights series. An early Easter boosted Food & beverage goods spending and higher petrol prices boosted Transport spending. Recreation and Household goods spending was weak. The upcoming Budget and the latest RBA Minutes were also discussed in light of the impact on the consumer.

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Sustainable - New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES): A change for the light vehicle market?

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 22:15:38 +0000

Media coverage in the past month have highlighted diverging views towards the Government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES). The NVES will, for the first time in Australia’s history, set tailpipe emission targets for new light vehicles sold in Australia. Indeed, the NVES will send a strong signal that Australia will prioritise low-emissions vehicles. But what are the likely short-term impacts and how does it all work? To answer these questions, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural Economist, sit down to discuss the findings of the latest note on the NVES.

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Sustainable - A guidebook to finding hot spots in Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 04:39:33 +0000

Introduction to mandatory climate reporting in Australia could mean large businesses would need to estimate and report scope 3 emissions. What are scope 3 emissions? And how do they differ by industry? To answer these questions, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics sit down to discuss their latest note ‘A guidebook to finding hot spots in Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions’.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights February 2024

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 22:03:30 +0000

February 2024 showed further evidence of a slowdown in consumer spending according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. A fall of 0.3%/mth occurred in February, with the peak in the index occurring in November 2023. There was evidence of a Taylor Swift, and other musical acts induced lift in spending with parts of Recreation and Hospitality seeing a strong increase. However other essential parts of the spending basket continue to lift, including Utilities and Health. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results and touch of the Q4 23 GDP results and outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights January 2024

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 04:23:02 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms over January 2024. The last three months of spending has been volatile, due to shifting summer spending patterns. Overall though the HSI shows spending running at 3.6%/yr, which when taking into account inflation and population growth suggests spending is weak on a real per capita basis. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results and other trends evident in the data and how we expect spending to be volatile over this period.

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Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.”

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Our updated global economic outlook

Mon, 05 Feb 2024 04:38:07 +0000

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong from the International and Sustainable Economics team discuss our updated outlook for the major economies and their central banks. We now predict the FOMC will pull off a ‘soft landing’ in the US economy. Japan, Canada, the Eurozone and the UK will skirt close to recession in 2024. Meanwhile, China is expected to keep growing by ‘around 5%’. We expect all central banks under our coverage, with the exception of Japan, to cut interest rates this year.

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The Australian economy in 2024

Wed, 24 Jan 2024 02:19:13 +0000

In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team run through a detailed outlook for the Australian economy over 2024. Gareth Aird, Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss GDP, the RBA, inflation, wages, the labour market, home prices, investment and housing construction. We expect GDP growth to run below trend in 2024 and for the unemployment rate to grind higher. Our base case is the first RBA rate cut in September which should support growth and will be a tailwind on home prices later in 2024. Inflation is also expected to cool over the year to be at the top of the RBA’s target band by end-2024.

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Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Insights’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights November 2023

Wed, 13 Dec 2023 03:35:59 +0000

The November edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 1.8% in seasonally adjusted terms. The impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotional activities can be seen through the data with a lift in the Retail category of 3.5% in the month and a 9.3% lift in Household goods. In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results and other trends evident in the data and how we expect spending to be volatile over this period.

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Electric vehicle charging: Opportunities & challenges 2023

Thu, 07 Dec 2023 03:43:37 +0000

In our latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist discuss some of the opportunities and challenges for electric vehicle charging in Australia. The build out of electric vehicle charging looks different within and outside the major capital cities. Inside the major cities, home and work places will provide significant charging for EV drivers. Renters and apartment dwellers are segments of the population that will rely on public electric vehicle charging. Outside the major capital cities, the progress of charging buildout will likely be dependent on government funding. More details can be found in the report.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights October 2023

Mon, 13 Nov 2023 03:33:28 +0000

In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the October edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The October results showed a fall of 1.0% in the month and annual growth sitting at 2.0%/yr. Weakness in Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods led the falls. While Utilities, Transport, Education, Insurance and Health all rose. In addition to the October moves, Stephen and Belinda discuss refinements to the HSI this month, removing some items that were investment, rather than spending in the Household Services category. More details can be found in the report.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights September 2023

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 03:35:14 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index for September 2023 rose by 0.5%/mth in seasonally adjusted terms, to 137.4. This was the same monthly increase as the revised outcome for August. Gains in September were led by Hospitality (fast food and restaurants), Food & beverage goods (liquor stores), Transport (higher fuel prices) and Education. It is worth noting, however, that 5 of the 12 spending categories saw declines in September, including Recreation (travel agents and ski fields), Utilities (government rebates at work), Health, Household services and Household goods. In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the September results and how recent resilience in household spending could impact the RBA.

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CommBank Household Spending Insights - August 2023

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 04:35:50 +0000

In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the revamped CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The data is now seasonally adjusted and weighted to the ABS census. For August, the Commbank HSI rose by 0.7%/mth to 137.0pts. Gains in August were led by Education (surge in international students), Transport (the higher price of petrol), Recreation (the FIFA World Cup), Household goods (after prolonged weakness), Motor vehicles, Health and Insurance (including for travel). This strength was partly offset by monthly declines in Hospitality and Utilities (government rebates at work). The annual growth rate of the HSI index picked up to 2.3%/yr in August, from a revised 1.9%/yr in July. The effects of 400bp of RBA rate hikes is clearly reflected in a significant slowdown in household spending, as measured by the CommBank HSI.

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RBA on hold in September and Q2 23 GDP

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 07:42:23 +0000

In this podcast, we discuss the RBA’s most recent cash rate decision and the latest economic growth figures. The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.1% at their September Board meeting. This was the third consecutive on-hold decision, although the RBA continued to retain a tightening bias. The RBA seem comfortable that interest rate hikes are working to slow aggregate demand and inflation in the economy, and their concerns around the outlook for the Chinese economy are growing. Also this week, the ABS released the National Accounts data, showing the economy grew by 0.4% in the June quarter. Household consumption and dwelling investment were soft, and growth was driven by the public and external sectors.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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China’s growth target in danger

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 05:41:52 +0000

The Chinese economy is weak and the government’s policy response has been underwhelming. Despite its reluctance, the government may be forced to unveil a large economic stimulus package in coming months to aid the economy. In this podcast, we discuss some of the key considerations in China’s fiscal and monetary policy debate. We also discuss our updated outlook for the Chinese economy.

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RBA on hold in August

Tue, 01 Aug 2023 07:15:46 +0000

The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.10% in August, the second consecutive on hold decision. The material lift in interest rates so far, lags in the transmission of monetary policy and uncertainty around the economic outlook drove the on hold decision. There are also growing signs inflation is coming down and consumer demand is moderating. We now expect the RBA to pause for an extended period at 4.10% before an easing cycle commences in Q1 24.

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Electric vehicles: trade-offs and government policy overview

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 02:22:08 +0000

Electric vehicle (EV) uptake can help decarbonise transport in Australia. Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainability Economics and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss the financial, emissions and driving-range trade-offs associated with EV purchase and ownership. They also discuss the range of government incentives available for EV uptake in Australia.

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RBA holds the cash rate steady in July

Tue, 04 Jul 2023 07:18:07 +0000

The RBA left the cash rate on hold in July at 4.10% as we had expected. In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, run through the three main reasons why the RBA left the cash rate on hold. The material lift in interest rates to date, the deceleration in the pace of the monthly CPI and the opportunity to wait and assess the economy and the outlook fed into the decision. Stephen and Belinda also discuss the outlook for the cash rate from here.

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Update of global economic and monetary policy outlook

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 05:57:20 +0000

Inflation, while coming down, remains too high for central banks’ comfort. A recession is likely needed in some economies to bring inflation back to target. Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainability Economics and Carol Kong, Economist discuss their updated forecasts on the global economy and foreign central banks’ policies.

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Nature Repair Market Bill

Wed, 10 May 2023 03:48:25 +0000

The Nature Repair Market Bill was introduced to parliament on the 29 March 2023. Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainability Economics and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss how the Nature Repair Market offers an alternative to the existing offset markets. They identify demonstrated-outcome and standardised units of measurement as two important elements required for the market to succeed.

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Federal Budget 2023/24

Tue, 09 May 2023 13:23:22 +0000

In a special Budget night podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the 2023/24 Budget in detail. Stephen and Belinda discuss what drove the surplus forecast for 2022/23, the first in 15 years and the key policy initiatives to reduce cost of living pressures. A key focus of the Budget was smaller budget deficits and debt projections due to changes in economic forecasts and spending changes.

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Household Spending Intentions April 2023

Mon, 08 May 2023 23:00:37 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) index for April 2023 declined by 4.3%/mth in original terms, led lower by Home buying, Health & fitness, Transport and Household services. The weakness in April was partly driven by seasonal factors, ie. less trading days on the month due to the public holidays, but in seasonally adjusted terms the HSI index was also slightly down. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details and note the continued fall in the pace of annual growth. Given the material lift in interest rates over the past year, a further slowdown in consumer spending is expected from here.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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RBA hikes in May, as anticipated

Tue, 02 May 2023 07:53:23 +0000

The RBA Board today increased the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%, as we had anticipated. But today’s outcome was not expected by financial markets or the forecasting community. In this podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the Bank’s forward guidance has been further watered down to a soft tightening bias and the policy outlook from here.

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Household Spending Intentions Index March 2023

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 23:00:32 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) index for March 2023 rose by a solid 8%/mth in original terms, following on from declines in January and February. The increase in March was partly due to the increased number of calendar days in March and other seasonal factors. Importantly the annual rate of growth continues to moderate. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the details of the report, with Transport, Entertainment, Retail and Travel all rising in the month. Stephen also discusses the outlook for the consumer over the remainder of 2023.

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Vantage Point – 2023 key themes and outlook

Thu, 13 Apr 2023 02:58:35 +0000

Join Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist in this podcast which brings together the outlook for the both the global and Australian economy. Stephen also provides thoughts on the recent banking issues, supply chains and inflation as well as the Global Economic and Markets Research teams focus on Sustainable Economics.

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Growth momentum slowing quickly in Australia

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 05:49:16 +0000

In this latest podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the Q4 22 National Accounts. GDP growth rose by 0.5%/qtr and suggests the growth momentum in the Australian economy is slowing quickly. Over the quarter consumer spending rose, albeit less than expected while business investment and residential investment both fell. The international sector contributed to growth. Attention turns quickly to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March Board meeting given the run of softer than expected data including the January Monthly CPI Indicator.

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Wages growth, the labour market and the RBA

Thu, 23 Feb 2023 05:15:57 +0000

In this latest podcast, Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu from the Australian economics team discuss the recent wages and labour force data and what this means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Q4 22 wage price index rose by 0.8%/qtr and 3.3%/yr, below expectations of the market and the RBA and suggests there is no wage price spiral in Australia. Together with signs the labour market is loosening this lends weight to the case to pause very soon in the tightening cycle.

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Household Spending Intentions Index January 2023

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 22:02:00 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) index for January 2023 declined by a solid -6.9%/mth in original terms, following on from a small 0.3%/mth rise in December 2022. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the details of the report, and also the outlook for consumer spending given the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish rate hike in February.

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US Fed slowing the pace as the destination approaches

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 04:45:08 +0000

The US FOMC continued the process of tightening monetary policy in February, but slowed the pace with a 25 basis point move. This takes the Fed Fund target rate to 4.5%-4.75%. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss why the slowdown in tightening and where the Fed Funds rate will go from here.

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Q4 22 CPI and 2023 Australian economic outlook

Wed, 25 Jan 2023 05:26:37 +0000

Q4 22 CPI was red hot in Australia and should see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lift the cash rate in February by 25bp to 3.35%. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the inflation data in detail and the implications for the RBA. The Australian economy is set to slow in 2023, although it is dependent on the policy path of the RBA. Gareth runs through what to watch for the rest of 2023.

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Recession in advanced economies to encourage policy pause

Thu, 19 Jan 2023 05:55:47 +0000

Our global economic growth forecasts have been upgraded in 2023 from 1.8% to 2.0% because of China’s early re-opening and Europe’s less severe recession. In this podcast Joseph Capurso and Kristina Clifton from our International Economics team talk to Belinda Allen, Senior Economist about the recession prediction and how central banks will need to decide when to stop lifting interest rates in 2023. A discussion on the outlook for the US, Canada, Europe, UK, China and Japan is also included.

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Implications of China’s reopening

Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:20:06 +0000

On our first podcast for 2023 Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talks to Carol Kong, Economist and Current Strategist about the reopening of China. Carol expects the reopening after close to three years of restrictions will bring forward the economic recovery, led by household consumption. However this will likely be in fits and starts due to chaotic preparation and a surge in covid cases. We expect labour shortages and intermittent supply chain issues, but these should be short lived.

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Household Spending Intentions November 2022

Mon, 12 Dec 2022 22:05:35 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) index rose by 1.9%/mth in original terms in November 2022, to 118.2. The increase was driven by a rise in spending on Transport (higher petrol prices), Retail (with consumers taking advantage of the sales) and Health & fitness. This was partly offset by falls in Travel, Education and Motor vehicles. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast and the seasonal adjustment process undertaken to provide a better understanding of recent moves.

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Vantage Point – 2023 Outlook

Thu, 01 Dec 2022 05:48:17 +0000

In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the outlook for 2023 for both the global economy and the Australian economy. Stephen highlights that central banks have in 2022 focussed on ‘today’s problem’, ie inflation, but in 2023 will pivot to ‘tomorrow’s problem’, ie the looming economic slowdown. This pivot will impact on financial markets and could see central banks reverse course in late 2023 and into 2024.

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AgQ – Southern Exposure

Wed, 30 Nov 2022 21:48:56 +0000

In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, speaks with Tobin Gorey, Agri-Strategist, about the latest AgQ, Southern Exposure (published 29/11). The podcast includes discussion about the impact of floods in Eastern Australia, how commodity prices might interact with currencies and why you should also keep an eye on the weather in South America.

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Household Spending Intentions October 2022

Mon, 07 Nov 2022 22:00:05 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index rose by +0.9%/mth in October 2022, to 116.0. The gains in October were impacted by higher prices in a number of categories. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast and dive into the detail including the seasonal influences at play in the retail category. The most significant moves in the HSI index in October were for Household services (after a decline in this category last month) and Retail, with half the gain in spending on the month in food – primarily driven by higher prices. Gains were also seen in Entertainment and Transport. These gains were partly offset by falls in Home buying, Travel and Motor vehicles.

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Federal Budget 2022/23 – Resetting for an uncertain future

Tue, 25 Oct 2022 13:10:10 +0000

The second 2022/23 Federal Budget was handed down on 25 October 2022. The new Labor Government wanted to ensure its fiscal settings were in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s aim of controlling inflation. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the Budget numbers, the key policy announcements and the economic projections. In short with the fiscal policy impulse all but unchanged over the year, this should help monetary policy get on top of the inflation surge running through the economy. However the widening of the deficit in the out years could imply the need for future fiscal constraint.

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Global economy heads for recession

Wed, 12 Oct 2022 23:52:51 +0000

We have cut our forecast for global economic growth to only 1.6% in 2023, below the International Monetary Fund definition of a global recession of 2%. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the drivers behind this view, the outlook for major central banks and the risk of stagflation. The outlook for China, the US, Japan, Canada, the UK and the Eurozone are also unpacked.

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Household Spending Intentions September 2022

Mon, 10 Oct 2022 22:00:08 +0000

For September 2022 the CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index declined by 0.5%/mth. The fall in September was the first monthly decline since April this year and is clearly beginning to show the effects on the household sector of the RBA’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle – with further impact expected in the months ahead. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in the latest podcast and delve into the reasons why Health & Fitness and Home Buying fell while Motor Vehicle, Entertainment and Travel rose.

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A looming US recession

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 06:00:31 +0000

Extremely high inflation combined with the FOMC’s strong commitment to restore price stability suggest it will likely induce a recession. In this podcast Carol Kong, International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss if the US is already in recession and the indicators to watch going forward. Importantly the US FOMC has a poor track record in managing a soft landing so a recession is a likely outcome.

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Household Spending Intentions August 2022

Mon, 12 Sep 2022 23:01:11 +0000

In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest CommBank Household Spending Intentions results. The HSI Index lifted by 0.8% in August and was 15.1% higher on the year. The gains however were narrowly based in Motor vehicles, Home buying and Health & fitness. While discretionary interest rate sensitive sectors including Travel, Retail and Entertainment fell and we expect given the monetary policy tightening that has already been undertaken, with more to come, further soften in spending to occur.

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AgQ – Ukraine and the rest

Thu, 08 Sep 2022 06:10:26 +0000

Agri-commodity prices had their most recent peak in mid-May. And by end-August were 17% below that peak. Prices though remain well above the levels in late 2020. Russia invading Ukraine has been one important, and highly-visible, influence on the swings in prices since earlier this year. But only one. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist discuss the Ukraine impact and the factors, dubbed ‘The Rest’ which are more important than the Ukraine in our view. Understanding 'The Rest', and Ukraine’s place in it, is key to having a clear-eyed view on what might now unfold.

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Aussie economic update and home price forecasts

Mon, 29 Aug 2022 22:58:24 +0000

We have made some changes to the speed at which we expect home prices to fall. In this podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the revised profile for home prices. A 15% peak to trough fall in national home prices remains the base case, but the trough is expected to be reached sooner. The conversation then turns to the current dichotomy in the lagging, coincident and forward looking economic data. Data including job ads, PMIs, home lending and prices as well as high frequency CBA credit & debit card data point to moderating economic activity from here, while official retail trade data was strong in July.

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What is down with consumer sentiment

Wed, 10 Aug 2022 05:26:41 +0000

Consumer sentiment has fallen sharply and is at very low levels consistent with major economic disruptions. The August figure is at just 81.2 pts and in deeply pessimistic territory. But consumption growth has so far been fairly solid. In this podcast, Stephen Wu, Economist in the Australian Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what is driving the weakness in consumer sentiment and the implications for spending. Importantly, sentiment is still weak even after accounting for other economic variables and so raises the risk that spending growth will slow more materially from here. We anticipate softer spending will drive below-trend economic growth over 2023 and continue to expect the RBA to ease monetary policy in H2 23.

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Inflation rises to 6.1%

Wed, 27 Jul 2022 06:46:18 +0000

The headline CPI rose by a very large 1.8%/qtr in Q2 22. This took the annual rate to 6.1%. Food, petrol, clothing and housing prices all rose strongly, as did holiday and accommodation prices. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the CPI in detail and how this result compares in a global context. Importantly the outcome leaves us comfortable with our call that the RBA will lift the cash rate by 50bp at the August Board Meeting next week. And we retail our central scenario for the cash rate to peak at 2.60% in late 2022.

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Household Spending Intentions June 2022

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 23:00:05 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index rose by a modest 0.9%/mth, taking the index back to an equal record-high of 117.3. On an annual basis the HSI index is up 11.9% relative to June 2021. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest results and note the gains in June were narrowly based, driven by high prices and spending on transport, education and household services. Stephen also notes that there are growing signs that the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy are slowing, including entertainment, home buying and retail.

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Green bonds 101

Thu, 07 Jul 2022 01:53:35 +0000

In our latest podcast we step outside the economics sphere to discuss Green bonds. Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income and Currency Strategy and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the growing number of sovereign and other issuers turning to Green bonds as borrowing levels increased during the pandemic. New Zealand is the most recent sovereign to announce they would issue in this space. Marty notes the important thing for issues is to be regular and predictable to meet an increasing demand for bonds in the environmental, social and governance space.

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RBA lifts by 50bp in July

Tue, 05 Jul 2022 07:13:45 +0000

The RBA Board today increased the cash rate by 50bp to 1.35% as was widely expected. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the decision and the accompanying Statement. Given the aggressive tightening of monetary policy over the past two months the accompanying statement was pragmatic and sensible, with a forward looking focus on inflation coming back down towards target in 2023. The Board will also monitor the impact of rate rises on household spending. We expect further rate rises from here, favouring a 25bp move in August (dependent on Q2 22 CPI due 27 July) and a 2.10% cash rate at year end.

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Fiscal policy and the public sector capex outlook

Fri, 01 Jul 2022 03:07:06 +0000

The Federal Budget bottom line is tracking much better than expected at the time of the March budget. Improvements in the underling economy suggest the Budget deficit in 2021/22 could come in approx. $A40bn lower than the most recent estimate of $A79.8bn. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist to discuss why we have seen such an improvement and why this will be important as the RBA tackles higher inflation by higher interest rates. Belinda also discusses the lift in the public sector capital expenditure pipeline but also how the headwinds of capacity constraints could see work delayed or cancelled.

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Reap what you sow

Wed, 22 Jun 2022 05:27:42 +0000

Inflation is too high in the large western economies and central banks are acting aggressively to lift interest rates to bring inflation down. This will be costly to economies. In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Carol Kong, Associate Economist discuss the outlook for the global economy and central banks for the US, UK, Europe, Canada, China and Japan with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. In short we predict weak global economic growth in 2023 and recessions in several large economies.

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Travelling Economist – United States

Mon, 20 Jun 2022 03:31:53 +0000

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss Stephen’s recent trip to the US where he met with officials from the New York Federal Reserve, US Treasury, clients and other stakeholders. The feedback includes inflation is the number one issue in the US at the moment and the US Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates aggressively to control inflation and bring it back down to target. This is both the key focus economically and politically. Stephen also discusses the current view of Australia from US clients.

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Forecast change and May Household Spending Intentions

Mon, 13 Jun 2022 23:00:05 +0000

In our latest podcast Kristina Clifton, Senior International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Australian Economist, discuss the larger than expected RBA rate hike in June. Belinda also outlines the change in terminal cash rate projection and also the impact on economic growth and home price forecasts. The May Household Spending Intentions report showed a 2.9% lift in May after a fall in April. Home Buying, Health & fitness and Transport rose while Travel and Entertainment fell.

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Agriculture update – the turf war rumbles on

Tue, 07 Jun 2022 03:30:54 +0000

High and rising food prices have become a topic of broad discussion. In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen is joined by Agri-Commodity Strategist Tobin Gorey to discuss how we got to this point. And why it will take some time to resolve. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been an important part of the story. An already tightening crop-supply context starting back in late 2020 though is the major cause.

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The outlook for residential construction and spotlight on WA

Mon, 06 Jun 2022 04:20:50 +0000

The outlook for residential construction is softening with headwinds including falling demand, rising interest rates and elevated construction costs. In this latest podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the outlook for the sector, including the impact from a return of net overseas migration. Stephen also discusses a recent trip to Western Australia where staff shortages, the return of overseas students, a bumper wheat crop as well as issues in the construction sector are all being faced.

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A change of Government and the implications

Mon, 23 May 2022 03:32:19 +0000

In our latest podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the implications from the change in Government. In short we retain our economic and RBA forecasts as at this early stage there is little change in policy that requires us to revisit our forecasts. There will be some policy shifts, particularly around child care, health, aged care, housing and climate change. But they don’t change the economic picture over the near term. We also discuss the election result in the context of recent labour force and wages data and our outlook for the RBA. We expect the RBA to deliver a 25bp increase in the cash rate at the June Board meeting.

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CBA Household Spending Intentions April 2022

Mon, 09 May 2022 23:00:41 +0000

The CBA Household Spending Intentions Index fell in April from a record high in March. The index was down by 3.8%/mth in April with the index printing at 112.3. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the drivers of April’s results including gains in Travel, Entertainment and Retail and falls in Home buying, Health & fitness and Transport. The HSI index though reflects the strength in both the activity side of the Australian economy, as well as strong prices as the interest rate cycle commenced in May.

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The RBA’s hiking cycle

Fri, 06 May 2022 06:51:31 +0000

It was a big week for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with the first lift in the cash rate since 2010. The RBA raised the cash rate from 0.10% and 0.35%. The large Q1 22 CPI result was the clear catalyst for the hike. And the RBA have gone from wanting to see inflation rise to be “sustainably within the target band” to inflation fighters in a matter of months. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the hiking cycle and what to watch for as interest rates lift.

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Don’t forget about fiscal policy to manage inflation risks

Mon, 02 May 2022 04:00:19 +0000

With all the focus on monetary policy and the upcoming hiking cycle by the RBA, the role of fiscal policy can’t be forgotten as a way to manage inflation risks. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist talks with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist about how the better economic outlook, both through nominal GDP and commodity prices suggests the actual budget deficit for 2022/23 could be considerably improved. It will be important that fiscal policy is allowed to tighten via the automatic stabilisers and this will help limit the need for higher interest rates and help contain the risks from higher inflation.

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Q1 22 CPI and RBA implications

Wed, 27 Apr 2022 07:51:42 +0000

A strong Q1 22 inflation reading on both the headline and trimmed mean measure set the market and economists reassessing the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Headline inflation rose by 2.1%/qtr and 5.1%/yr and trimmed mean rose by 1.4%/qtr and 3.7%/yr. The cost of building a new house, petrol, tertiary education and food prices all moved higher in the quarter. We are taking the RBA’s April Board Minutes at face value and expect the RBA to wait for “additional evidence on the evolution of labour costs” before concluding that inflation is “sustainably within the target range”. We retain our call that we have held since February that the RBA’s tightening cycle commences in June and that they shift to an explicit hiking bias next week at the May Board meeting.

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Household Spending Intentions March 2022

Mon, 11 Apr 2022 23:00:12 +0000

The Household Spending Intentions Index rose by 9.2%/mth in March to a record high level of 117.1. This reading eclipsed the previous high from December 2021, showing that strong momentum in the Australian economy resumed after Omicron and seasonal factors impacted results in January and February. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the strong Transport, Travel and Retail readings and how the latest reading reinforces the view that official interest rates will begin to rise in June this year.

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War dampens the global economic outlook

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 02:42:29 +0000

The war in the Ukraine has impacted the outlook for the Eurozone economy in 2022 due to higher gas prices and the proximity to the war. As a result we have also lowered our global GDP forecast for this year to 4.1% from 4.5%. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the major global themes to be aware of for 2022 as well as the key highlights for China, Japan, the US, Canada, the Eurozone and the UK.

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Federal Budget 2022/23

Tue, 29 Mar 2022 12:39:16 +0000

The 2022/23 Federal Budget was handed down on 29th March 2022. In this podcast Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the Budget in detail. Overall the Federal Government has delivered a Budget that aims to reduce cost of living pressures, focus spending on other targeted areas but also move to the second phase of the fiscal strategy, namely stabilising debt to GDP. The underlying economic forecasts are credible and the announced policy initiatives haven’t changed our forecast for the RBA.

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China, Covid and the 2022 growth outlook

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 04:59:08 +0000

A recent lift in COVID cases in China and lockdowns in major cities has put the spotlight back on China’s COVID strategy and its impact on economic growth. While the Chinese economy began 2022 in a strong position, in our latest podcast Kevin Xie, Senior Asia Economist with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist outlines the risks to the outlook for growth in 2022 due to COVID, higher energy prices and slowing growth in trading partners due to higher interest rates. More monetary and fiscal support is expected and inflation is expected to remain low compared to Western economies.

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How we learned to love the ‘debt mountain’

Tue, 22 Mar 2022 23:50:17 +0000

In our latest podcast Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income and Currency Strategy joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist to discuss how Australia’s government debt position has changed over recent decades. Importantly the mind set has changed on the need for government debt caused by large fiscal injections to create demand during the pandemic. Martin discusses how investors remain un-fazed by the lift in debt and borrowing costs remain low reinforcing the transition away from the ‘deficit bad, surplus good’ scenario.

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The Fed, BoE and long term implications of the Ukraine war

Fri, 18 Mar 2022 03:10:30 +0000

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist delve into two big issues facing the world economy. First, Joe discusses the US FOMC and Bank of England (BoE) meetings where both central banks lifted their policy interest rates. The FOMC is expected to tighten more than the BoE and RBA. Second, Joe unpacks the possible long term implications of the war in the Ukraine with a mini mining capex boom possible outside Russia and a higher cost of the sustainable capex revolution. The war will also increase inflation and could contribute to rising inflation expectations.

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RBA, Ukraine and the floods

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 07:15:39 +0000

March has already been an eventful month for the Australian economy. The Q4 21 GDP data showed a large 3.4%/qtr lift in economic growth while the invasion of the Ukraine and the terrible floods on the east coast will add to the inflation pressures in the Australian economy. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss recent economic developments as well as RBA Governor Lowe’s speech at the AFR Business Summit. In short the RBA do not need to see two more CPI prints to hike, consistent with our base case of a June rate hike given CBA’s expectation for a very strong Q1 22 CPI print.

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Household Spending Intentions February 2022

Mon, 07 Mar 2022 22:06:41 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index rose by 1.8%/mth to 107.3 in February. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results with the key drivers of the lift being transport, home buying, health & fitness as well as household services. The Omicron induced weakness evident in January is disappearing as case numbers fall. The gains in February were partially offset by seasonal weakness in retail (although still up a solid amount over the year) and travel which is still well below its pre pandemic level

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Agriculture Update – supply keeps falling

Wed, 02 Mar 2022 06:09:11 +0000

In this edition of the quarterly Agriculture podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talks to Ag Strategist, Tobin Gorey about several big issues impacting the Agriculture space. Belinda and Tobin cover the tightening supply context in many agri-commodities, the price response to that tightness and the price risks in the year ahead, what impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having and how the hefty increases in farms input cost affect the big picture.

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An update on productivity in Australia

Mon, 21 Feb 2022 02:15:08 +0000

In our latest podcast we dive into productivity growth in Australia. Kristina Clifton talks to fellow Senior Economist Belinda Allen about why productivity boosts real wages growth over the long term and the recent productivity history in Australia. The result is Australia’s productivity growth has slowed but a recent tick up in public and private investment are a positive sign but more needs to be done. Kristina also covers some other areas that could help lift Australia’s productivity growth

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RBA to hike the cash rate in June 2022

Tue, 15 Feb 2022 06:53:02 +0000

We have shifted our central scenario for the first RBA rate hike to be delivered in June 2022, from August 2022. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss Governor Lowe’s comments last week that prompted us to pull forward the timing for the first increase in the cash rate. We also cover CBA’s inflation forecasts in this podcast. We continue to expect a gradual and shallow tightening cycle. The expiry profile of fixed rate mortgages feeds into our view that the terminal rate is low.

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A blow out CPI to push FOMC to hike by 50bp

Mon, 14 Feb 2022 05:07:06 +0000

The US labour market is tightening, employment costs are rising rapidly and inflation is very high. Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist in discussing the outlook for the US FOMC and how the threshold for a 50bp lift in March has now been crossed. Joe covers the outlook for the interest rate cycle and the indicators to watch as rates are lifted.

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Household Spending Intentions – January 2022

Mon, 07 Feb 2022 20:06:20 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions Index fell by 10% in January 2022. January is a seasonally weak month after a surge in Christmas spending. However the Omicron outbreak did subdue spending further. Falls were largest in retail, entertainment and household services and more muted in insurance, utilities and education. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the details of the results and explain why the economic recovery is still on track.

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The outlook for the RBA, inflation and wages

Wed, 02 Feb 2022 06:16:45 +0000

It has been an eventful two weeks for the outlook for interest rates with the Q4 21 CPI surprising to the upside. As a result we now expect the cash rate to be lifted in August 2022 (was November 2022). The RBA, in its February Board Meeting and a speech by Governor Lowe, continued to remind financial market participants that the cash rate will not be raised until the Board is confident inflation is sustainably within the target band which will require wages growth to be materially higher than it currently is. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest data and the outlook for the RBA.

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Household Spending Intentions – December 2021

Wed, 19 Jan 2022 20:00:05 +0000

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions index rose by 2.5% rise in December to 115.0. This was the highest level since July 2017. Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist talks to Belinda Allen, Senior Economist who details the main drivers of the lift in spending in December. A seasonal upswing in Retail spend as well as continued lift in Travel and Transport spend post the extended Delta lockdowns led to the strong gain.

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What does the Omicron surge mean for the Australian economy?

Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:36:59 +0000

In our first podcast for 2022 our Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the surge in COVID cases and what it means for the Australian economy. There will be short term disruption to both demand and supply due to the sheer number of people in isolation. Hours worked and spending will fall. But over the rest of 2022 we expect the unemployment rate to trend lower, inflation pressures to build and the case for higher interest rates to remain on track.

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2022; Above and beyond

Mon, 20 Dec 2021 03:13:15 +0000

In our final podcast for 2021 Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist reflect on the key themes of 2021 and how these will evolve over 2022. COVID remains the key risk but for 2022 we expect climate change, inflation and central banks removing monetary policy accommodation and lifting interest rates will dominate the landscape locally and globally. Thank you to listening to our podcasts in 2021, we will return in January 2022. Have a wonderful holiday season.

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Recent progress on biodiversity

Fri, 17 Dec 2021 05:44:28 +0000

The growing recognition of the interconnectedness between climate change and biodiversity loss has helped accelerate the biodiversity agenda in both part 1 of COP15 and COP26. Carol Kong, Senior Associate Currency Strategy and International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the key biodiversity developments that arose from the two conferences. Biodiversity will increasingly become an area of focus in the global policy and investor agenda in 2022 and beyond.

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2022 outlook for China

Tue, 14 Dec 2021 04:57:14 +0000

The Chinese economy slowed in 2021 as regulator tightening was implemented and as structural reform and decarbonisation policies were explored. As we approach 2022 Kevin Xie, Senior Asia Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist explore the outlook for 2022 as policy makers balance pro-growth near-term policy setting against medium term goals. Kevin dives in to the outlook for COVID policy as well as regulatory reform, decarbonisation, fiscal and monetary policy and where the risks lie to 2022 growth.

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Household Spending Intentions Nov 2021

Mon, 06 Dec 2021 22:08:37 +0000

The November edition of the CommBank Household Spending Intentions index rose by 2.1% in the month to reach 110.3, the strongest level since December 2019 and recouped gains lost during COVID lockdowns. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in the latest podcast and break down the major rises and falls. The gains in the index were led by Transport, Travel, Retail and Household services while Home buying spending intentions retreated. A large amount of accumulated household savings will help propel consumer spending as we head into Christmas and 2022.

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Q3 21 GDP falls less than expected

Wed, 01 Dec 2021 05:25:09 +0000

GDP fell as expected in Q3 21 but the fall was smaller than consensus. The 1.9% contraction was the third largest in history, driven by a fall in household consumption due to lockdowns in NSW, Vic and the ACT. Business investment, dwelling investment and net exports all added to growth, as did the government sector. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist run through the highlights particularly the divergence in state trends the continued accumulation of households savings, which is a large tailwind for consumption in 2022.

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Dwelling prices to fall in 2023

Mon, 22 Nov 2021 06:10:37 +0000

The Australian housing market has performed strongly in 2021. Dwelling prices have risen by a little over 20% nationwide. However rising fixed rate mortgages, affordability constraints and a change by APRA to the serviceability buffer are expected to see dwelling price growth moderate over 2022. Following an expected 7% increase in prices over 2022, we forecast an orderly fall of 10% in home prices over 2023 as the official cash rate is expected to rise from November 2022. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics runs through the forecasts and the importance of interest rates on the housing market in this podcast with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist.

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COP26 – key takeaways

Mon, 15 Nov 2021 02:41:01 +0000

The highly anticipated COP26 conference in Glasgow has concluded. In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior Economist, International Economics & Currency Strategy and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, discuss the key takeaways from the conference. While new net zero pledges were made and a push to reduce global methane lifted, countries pledges still fall short of the Paris Agreement’s goals. One upside for emissions reductions though was a move towards uniform disclosure standards that should assist private financing to help fund the transition.

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Household Spending Intentions – October 2021

Mon, 08 Nov 2021 22:31:46 +0000

Welcome to the podcast for the first edition of our new CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the launch of the new HSI index and its enhancements through the addition of five new spending categories to compliment the seven already in place. This now means the HSI index tracks almost all types of household consumption. The index for October shows a 6.6% lift, driven by Travel, Transport and Household Services. Home Buying did fall as did the Motor Vehicle index.

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Central Bank wrap up

Fri, 05 Nov 2021 05:29:50 +0000

It was a big week for central banks with market expectations pricing in changes of interest rate rises earlier than central bank guidance. Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Kristina Clifton, Senior Economist dive into the details with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) abandoned its yield curve target but pushed back against interest rate hike expectations. The Bank of England failed to lift rates while the US Federal Reserve began the journey of winding back its bond purchases.

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Strong vaccine uptake lifts Aussie economic outlook

Thu, 28 Oct 2021 06:37:15 +0000

High vaccination rates and an earlier than expected reopening of the NSW and Victorian economies have led us to upgrade the economic outlook for Australia. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist how our numbers have changed given these developments. With the labour market forecast to perform very well in 2022 and inflation moving higher it also brings forward our timetable for RBA rate hikes. We now expect the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate in November 2022.

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Vantage Point – Inflation targeting

Mon, 25 Oct 2021 23:28:23 +0000

The RBA first introduced its inflation target almost 30 years ago. Up until 2016 the RBA had been successful at meeting this target. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss why there have been recent calls for a review of the inflation target, the reasons why inflation has undershot and if a review should be conducted.

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September Household Spending Intentions series

Mon, 18 Oct 2021 22:01:35 +0000

In this podcast Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick discusses the September Household Spending Intentions series with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. The overwhelming message is one of stability – after a number of months of significant volatility. Home buying, Retail, Travel, Health & fitness and Motor vehicle spending intentions all showed signs of stability and consolidation in September, after declines in prior months. Entertainment and Education spending intentions continued to trend down.

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Aussie housing CPI and education exports

Fri, 15 Oct 2021 04:20:04 +0000

In this podcast the Australian Economics team led by Gareth Aird deep dives into two different issues impacting the Australian economy. First, Kristina Clifton and Stephen Wu discuss the housing component of CPI (which is the largest) and how it is being impacted by various government grants but also rising material costs. Rents are also important and these are expected to lift. Belinda Allen then discusses education exports during the pandemic and what factors could shift the recovery of this important export sector as borders begin to open up.

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Global economic outlook – Central banks eye the exit

Tue, 12 Oct 2021 00:39:52 +0000

In this podcast Head of International Economics, Joseph Capurso and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the changing composition of global economic growth. In 2022 growth of 4.4% is expected after a lift of 6.5% in 2021. However the US and China is expected to expand by less than earlier expected while the UK and the Eurozone are experiencing an acceleration in growth. Inflation is rising, and this has some central banks eyeing the exit of extraordinary easy monetary policy.

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Nature related risks – the clock is ticking

Thu, 07 Oct 2021 03:10:55 +0000

Nature related risks are growing in recognition and importance, and the rapid decline in biodiversity is a growing potential risk for businesses. In this podcast Carol Kong, Senior Associate, International Economics and Currency Strategy discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist what the developments of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures and the post-2020 global biodiversity framework might mean for Australian businesses.

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More, and Better Food – The Income Dimension

Tue, 05 Oct 2021 05:58:03 +0000

In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist speaks with Agriculture Strategist, Tobin Gorey and they revisit the thematic of ‘More, and Better Food”. The focus in this episode is how income levels in particular economies have changed over the past forty years and where the opportunity lies going forward. This theory has been a mainstay of the opportunity around the agriculture space. The data suggests further growth in income in certain economies is likely and agriculture production will need to be scaled up to meet the demand going forward.

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How can ‘common prosperity’ influence the Chinese economy?

Fri, 01 Oct 2021 05:02:03 +0000

The concept of ‘common prosperity’ has dominated the policy landscape in China recently. The key objective is to create a fairer and more equal ‘social welfare society’ and is a long term policy goal. Policy changes will be gradual but there will be macroeconomic implications. In this podcast Kevin Xie, Senior Asia Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the concept of common prosperity and how this will accelerate economic rebalancing from investment to consumption in China.

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Inflation driven by fiscal expansion and money creation

Thu, 30 Sep 2021 06:54:32 +0000

The inflation debate has been one consistent theme in 2021. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the potent combination of Quantitative Easing and direct cash payments from government to households will boost future spending and lead to higher consumer inflation over the next few years. We retain our call that the RBA will commence normalising the cash rate in May 2023.

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US wages, inflation and the FOMC

Thu, 23 Sep 2021 04:55:08 +0000

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into wages, inflation and interest rates in the US. The Employment Cost Index and a very high quit rate suggests US wages pressures are rising. Stronger growth in wages is adding to an already strong consumer inflation pulse. Joseph draws implications for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

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Household Spending Intentions – August 2021

Mon, 20 Sep 2021 23:00:04 +0000

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for August 2021 continued the run of data showing the economic impact of the lockdowns currently in place in NSW and Victoria. These lockdowns had a considerable impact on the HSI in August as it will over coming months till restrictions ease. Lockdowns are also significantly impacting labour market data, but incomes are holding up due to government benefit payments. Home buying, Travel, Entertainment and Education spending intentions were all down. Retail, Health & fitness and Motor vehicle spending intentions were trending sideways.

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Vantage Point – Tactics and Strategy

Mon, 13 Sep 2021 06:52:29 +0000

In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist speaks with Belinda Allen about his latest Vantage Point piece titled Tactics and Strategy. Stephen runs through how policy around COVID has shifted with vaccinations now ramping up and how internally generated CBA data is tracking in August and early September. Belinda and Stephen also discuss themes in feedback from CBA corporate clients as well as the latest on the RBA, the US Federal Reserve, China’s outlook and the research focus on Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) factors.

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Delta and the disparate outcomes across the States

Fri, 10 Sep 2021 07:18:08 +0000

The delta outbreak in NSW, Vic and the ACT and the resultant lockdowns have dramatically impacted the economic landscape for each state economy. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics speaks with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Wu, Economist about how each state economy is tracking on the COVID front. In particular they dive into the detail on consumer spending, housing and the labour market as well as the impact on the outlook through the lockdown period and the adjustment period where COVID is part of everyday life.

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Aussie economic outlook – living with Delta

Wed, 01 Sep 2021 08:25:59 +0000

The Q2 21 National Accounts figures were largely academic given the evolving COVID-19 outbreak courtesy of the delta strain. The Australian economy grew in the second quarter, but lockdowns impacting more than 50% of the population will see growth record a large fall in the third quarter. Vaccination rates are rising, but so are case numbers which means that when restrictions are eased, Australia will be living with COVID for the first time. As Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, this is likely to result in an adjustment period as consumers and businesses alter behaviour which should see a slower, more fractured recovery.

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Delta – is the end in sight?

Tue, 31 Aug 2021 03:02:01 +0000

Our latest podcast aims to answer the question on everyone lips – will lockdowns be necessary in 2022? Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how vaccination rates and herd immunity are tracking in various advanced economies and the need for booster shots. Lockdowns likely will be less prevalent in 2022, though could still be used, and should be less frequent, short and localised. Some restrictions are likely to remain in place and the impact on the economy less onerous.

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China’s economic outlook and decarbonisation plans

Thu, 26 Aug 2021 23:33:53 +0000

Our latest podcast takes a step away from what is happening in Australia and focuses on the Chinese economy. China experienced an outbreak of the delta variant in July and that has led to social distancing and mobility restrictions. As a result high frequency data has slowed, particularly retail spending. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist speaks to our Senior Asia Economist, Kevin Xie about what is happening in China as well as its decarbonisation plans.

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CBA Household Spending Intentions July 2021

Mon, 16 Aug 2021 23:02:21 +0000

Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how an improvement in economic conditions in July 2020 and the lockdowns this year have dramatically impacted the readings for the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions in July 2021. The spread of the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus has shifted the near term economic outlook to the negative and this will continue to impact on all economic data in coming months. For July 2021 the impact of the extensive lockdowns in place across Australia, saw declines for Home buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment, Education and Motor vehicle spending intentions. Health & fitness spending intentions continued to improve.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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Pricing greenhouse gas emissions, a global overview

Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:04:05 +0000

Globally, action to limit climate change is growing. One example is the fact that the number of greenhouse gas pricing initiatives have jumped since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. In our latest podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Senior Economist Kim Mundy talk about why and how countries are pricing emissions. Although narrow scopes and low prices have limited emissions reductions to date, there are reasons to believe this will change. They also discuss what is happening here in Australia.

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RBA updates forecasts, seem too upbeat

Fri, 06 Aug 2021 06:20:12 +0000

The RBA has been the centre of attention this week. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest Board Meeting and updated forecasts. In short the RBA remain upbeat on the medium term outlook for the Australian economy and we agree. However the RBA appears too optimistic in the near term given the lockdown in Greater Sydney is set to continue into the December quarter and other parts of the country are going through multiple ‘snap’ lockdowns.

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Australian economy to be hit hard before rebound

Wed, 28 Jul 2021 06:11:07 +0000

The extended lockdown in Greater Sydney will change the course of the Australian economy over coming months. Prior to this, the Australian economy was set to record a strong recovery and the unemployment rate was on track to move well below 5% by year end. However the recent COVID-19 outbreak in Greater Sydney, and it being the delta variant and the ensuing strict lockdown measures, has led us to revise our economic forecasts significantly. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist run through the latest thoughts, what it means for 2022 and the RBA.

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Household Spending Intentions – June 2021

Mon, 19 Jul 2021 23:00:50 +0000

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for June 2021 continued to be significantly affected by base effects when compared to June last year – with declines in spending intentions for Home buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Motor vehicles. Both Health & fitness and Education spending intentions were higher. In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the data, how it compares to both 2020 and 2019 and what the more up to date weekly card spend data is telling us.

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Lockdowns and the labour market

Thu, 15 Jul 2021 07:02:53 +0000

The Australian employment report for June was another strong print, with the unemployment rate falling to a decade low of 4.9%. But the near term economic outlook has shifted with Greater Sydney entering its fourth week of lockdown and another snap lockdown in Victoria. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what the lockdown may mean for economic activity, the labour market and the RBA.

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RBA July policy decision

Wed, 07 Jul 2021 01:09:26 +0000

The highly anticipated July policy decisions by the RBA did not disappoint. In this podcast Gareth Aird. Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the two key decisions made by the RBA; sticking with the April 24 bond and tapering its bond purchase program as well as the modification of the forward guidance on the cash rate. The RBA remains dovish on the outlook for wages and inflation but despite this they have started the process of winding back some of the extraordinary monetary policy support given the expanding economy.

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Outlook for the world economy and central bank implications

Tue, 29 Jun 2021 02:15:30 +0000

We have upgraded our views for global economic growth to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. In this podcast with Kim Mundy, Senior Economist & Currency Strategist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the upgrade and themes behind it including the vaccine roll out and a lift in the size of the government sector in driving the recovery. Financial markets have drawn a straight line from economic recovery to inflation and higher interest rates. Kim runs through the outlook for the major economies of US, Canada, China, Japan, Eurozone and the UK and what it means for the central bank in each country.

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RBA to raise the cash rate in November 2022

Wed, 23 Jun 2021 07:11:29 +0000

The Australian labour market has tightened at a phenomenal pace and underutilisation in May was at its lowest since early 2013. The forward looking indicators of labour demand are very strong yet labour supply is constrained, which means the labour market will continue to tighten very quickly and wages growth will accelerate. We expect the RBA to begin normalising monetary policy in late 2022 and see the cash rate target at 0.5% at end-2022 and then peaking at 1.25% by Q3 2023. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the change of call, the reasons why and the risks around it.

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A bumper labour market report

Thu, 17 Jun 2021 07:09:53 +0000

The May labour market report was very strong on all accounts. Employment rose by 115k, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% and the participation rate lifted. Underemployment fell further and suggests the labour market is tightening quickly. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the labour market report and the outlook for employment. Gareth also talks about a newer measure of the labour market which includes all workers in the Australian economy, including temporary workers, which indicates employment is not yet back to pre pandemic levels. This is due to the loss of foreign workers from our labour supply. The evidence suggests the labour market is tightening and wages pressure should lift. This differs from recent RBA commentary that wages and inflation pressure will remain muted for some time.

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Household Spending Intentions May 2021

Mon, 14 Jun 2021 23:01:18 +0000

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for May 2021 showed the generally positive consumer environment continued in the month, when comparing the spending categories relative to May last year. Base effects continue to impact the data as the slow reopening of the economy began a year ago. In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results with Home buying, Health & fitness, Education and Car buying moving higher compared to May 2020. Base effects saw Retail spending intentions retreat, while Entertainment and Travel intentions moved sideways.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will central banks soon have an inflation problem?

Fri, 04 Jun 2021 05:47:55 +0000

Inflation and the prospects of rising inflation have been the hot topic of 2021. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the arguments for an increase in inflation large enough to cause central banks to tighten monetary policy. Loose fiscal policy, immigration and tourism, accumulated household savings, rising commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, wages and inflation expectations are all discussed.

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The economic recovery continued in Q1 21

Thu, 03 Jun 2021 08:19:25 +0000

The Q1 21 GDP figures were just released. They showed that the economic recovery continued strongly over early 2021. GDP is now about 0.8% above where it was tracking pre-COVID-19. Strong commodity prices are also giving the economy a boost and nominal GDP rose by 3.5% in the quarter. In the podcast Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen, both Senior Economists discuss the GDP results. They also touch on the upcoming July RBA meeting. This meeting will be an important one with the RBA set to announce their decision around which bond to target and whether QE will be extended.

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Agriculture update; half time or full time

Thu, 27 May 2021 05:56:07 +0000

In our regular quarterly podcast with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist topics such as supply constraints, rising farm prices in Australia and seasonal labour issues are all discussed. Tobin details how supply constrains have been building in recent seasons and when combined with rising demand is creating the ‘Turf War’ and rising prices. With recent residential property price rises, Tobin, with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist also discuss how farm prices are rising, but is varied depending on the type of land.

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What is recent data telling us about inflation in Australia?

Tue, 25 May 2021 06:05:26 +0000

The inflation outlook is a key focus for markets and economists right now. The economic data released in Australia over the past week largely pertained to the labour market which feeds into the inflation debate. The slew of data was all supportive of our view that wages growth and inflation outcomes will exceed the RBA’s forecasts over the next few years. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the recent data including the wage price index, labour force survey, job vacancies and the flash PMI and what it means for the RBA and inflation outlook.

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Household Spending Intentions – April 2021

Mon, 17 May 2021 23:00:05 +0000

The April edition of the Household Spending Intentions report shows strong improvement across all spending categories relative to April last year. This comes as no surprise, given April 2020 was the low point for spending at the start of the Covid-19 lockdowns. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how comparing April 2021 outcomes to 2019 helps to see some underlying trends in the data, removing the Covid-19 base effects. Home Buying, Retail, Health & Fitness, Entertainment and Car buying are all up on 2019. Travel spending intentions are well up on April 2020, but they remain lower than April 2019. Spending intentions on Education were up in April 2021 relative to 2020, but relatively flat on April 2019.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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2021/22 Australian Budget – Fiscal policy supports strong recovery

Tue, 11 May 2021 13:59:31 +0000

In our special Budget 2021/22 edition of the podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dissect the numbers, key policies and economic forecasts. The Australian economy is now growing strongly and the Budget position improved in 2020/21. However the deficit for 2021/22 was larger than expected at $A106.6bn, which was little changed from the MYEFO estimate of $A108.5bn. Effectively the government has embarked on a number of significant spending initiatives as well as receiving lower revenue due to policy changes. The government is taking on a more active role in demand management in an attempt to lower the unemployment rate below 5%. Listen to the podcast for what it means for Australia’s debt position, the economic outlook and the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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RBA recap, economic boom with very little inflation

Fri, 07 May 2021 05:30:48 +0000

It has been a big week for the RBA with the May Board meeting and the Statement on Monetary Policy. The RBA will decide on its 3-year yield target and the third round of bond purchases in July. In the meantime the RBA significantly upgraded their assessment of the Australian economic outlook, yet forecasts of inflation and wages growth remain low. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the forecasts and what it means for the RBA’s policy outlook.

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Metrics to watch in a hot housing market

Wed, 28 Apr 2021 00:23:22 +0000

Strongly rising dwelling prices have raised the possibility of macro prudential policies being reintroduced. In this podcast Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen from the Australian Economics team discuss who has responsibility to monitor developments in the housing market in terms of financial stability. They also discuss what the key metrics are to watch including loan to value ratios, interest only lending, debt to income ratios and credit growth. To date there is no evidence of a deterioration of lending standards.

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Implications of President Biden’s infrastructure plan

Mon, 26 Apr 2021 00:26:55 +0000

Our latest podcast covers a number of key thematics in markets in 2021: the outlook for the US economy, decarbonisation and greening of the global economy and what these means for commodities. Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Vivek Dhar, Mining and Energy Commodities Strategist speak with Belinda Allen to detail President Biden’s latest infrastructure and jobs plan and discuss what it means for the US economy and commodities. Realistically most of the infrastructure spending will spill over into construction and manufacturing. We estimate limited increased demand for Australian commodities.

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March Household Spending Intentions

Mon, 19 Apr 2021 23:04:17 +0000

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for March 2021 showed improvement across five of the seven spending categories. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen discuss how some of the annual percentage changes are now being distorted by the impact on spending from the onset of the Covid-19 restrictions of a year ago. March 2021 saw strong gains in spending intentions for Home Buying, Travel, Entertainment, Education and Motor vehicles. Health & fitness spending intentions consolidated recent gains, while Retail spending intentions were weak - but this was largely a payback for the spike higher seen in March last year.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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Australian unemployment rate to hit 5% end 2021

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 06:39:18 +0000

We have lowered our Australian unemployment rate forecast to 5% at end 2021. Listen to Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the forward looking indicators of labour demand prompted the updated view. As a result wages growth has been revised up, as has underlying inflation. Gareth also provides the latest thinking on the RBA’s policy suite and what the latest forecasts mean for the cash rate, yield curve control and quantitative easing.

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Is the US economy about to overheat?

Mon, 12 Apr 2021 05:15:27 +0000

A big question for this year is how fast will the US economy grow? In this podcast with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Kim Mundy, Senior Economist & Currency Strategist discuss three key growth elements and their potential to overheat the US economy in 2021; The American Rescue Plan Act, the vaccination roll-out and the infrastructure plan. Importantly the outlook for the US economy will be critical for the US FOMC’s reaction function.

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Is there another commodities super-cycle underway?

Wed, 07 Apr 2021 04:46:11 +0000

There is an emerging theory that another commodities super-cycle is underway. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discusses the hypothesis with Vivek Dhar, Mining and Commodities Strategist. Three factors are discussed; the transition to a decarbonised economy, supply constraints & investment spend and reflation. Altogether Vivek thinks the rise in commodity prices over the last year is indicative of a cyclical recovery than a long dated super -cycle. A super -cycle would likely require India and/or Vietnam to industrialise and urbanise.

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Views from seeing Australian corporates

Wed, 31 Mar 2021 05:45:45 +0000

In a change of pace this week we discuss feedback from recent trips around Australia visiting corporate clients. Both Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income & Currency Strategy and Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics have travelled to different parts of Australia including WA, Queensland and South Australia. They have also spoken to clients in Victoria and NSW. The feedback has been overwhelmingly optimistic on the domestic economic outlook. Common themes emerged including labour shortages, pockets of wages pressures and ‘cream spending’. Gareth and Marty also detail the feedback around interest rates and how that matches with our view on the RBA and economic outlook.

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Where does Australia fit in the world’s carbon footprint?

Thu, 25 Mar 2021 02:45:50 +0000

In our latest podcast, we continue with our recent thematic research on environmental issues. Given the current global focus on net zero carbon emission targets, we take a step back and discuss how to measure an economy’s carbon footprint and how carbon is produced and consumed. Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen then discuss Australia’s carbon footprint, what it means and how it could be reduced.

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The end of LIBOR

Wed, 17 Mar 2021 01:43:53 +0000

In a step away from the economy, this podcast delves into what the end of LIBOR means for financial markets. Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income & Currency Strategy, discusses with Belinda Allen Senior Economist what LIBOR is and why it is ending. For any issuers or borrowers in debt markets this is an important topic to be aware of and Martin discusses what LIBOR will be replaced with, when and what the call to action is.

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February Household Spending Intentions and RBA recap

Mon, 15 Mar 2021 22:03:30 +0000

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for February 2021 showed mixed results across the seven spending categories, but overall continued to point to ongoing improvement in household spending in the Australian economy. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the major results with a focus on Home Buying, Health & fitness, Entertainment and Education spending intentions. They also discuss how upcoming base effects will impact the readings going forward. Stephen also shares his latest thinking on the RBA post Governor Lowe’s most recent speech.

“------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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The end of JobKeeper and outlook for the States & Territories

Fri, 12 Mar 2021 05:39:07 +0000

We cover two different issues in our latest podcast between Belinda Allen and Nic Guesnon from the Australian Economics team. Firstly the impact of the end of JobKeeper is discussed and how this will impact the labour market. We expect around 110k jobs could be lost by the end of the wage subsidy and a number of key industries are likely to wear the brunt. Secondly we discuss the performance of the various state and territories in 2020, what is driving the divergence and what we expect in 2021.

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Central bank outlook

Tue, 09 Mar 2021 04:45:28 +0000

Recent financial market activity, particularly the bond market would suggest that lifts in short term rates are coming down the pipeline by central banks. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what central bankers are focussed on when looking at tightening monetary policy. A focus on actual inflation rather than expected inflation has been a recent change in thinking. The interplay of fiscal policy and economic data is also discussed as well as the outlook for the major central banks.

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Australian GDP and RBA recap

Wed, 03 Mar 2021 06:26:21 +0000

In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist unpack both the Q4 20 GDP result as well as the RBA March Board meeting. The Australian economy has had a V-shaped economic recovery and we remain optimistic on the outlook for 2021. The RBA is expected to continue with its very easy monetary policy stance, albeit the bond market is pricing in the chance of some future monetary policy tightening due to an improving economy and prospects for higher inflation. Rapidly rising home prices are also feeding into market speculation on what the RBA does over the period ahead. We expect the RBA to exit yield curve control later this year.

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Global economy primed to spring back?

Mon, 01 Mar 2021 05:11:30 +0000

In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior Economist - International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the upgraded forecasts for global economic growth in 2021 and 2022. There are three main reasons for the improved outlook: vaccinated populations, large savings buffers and fiscal stimulus. The path of the virus does remain front and centre. Kim also provides the growth outlook for the US, China, Eurozone, UK and Japan.

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How ‘circular’ is Australia’s economy?

Wed, 24 Feb 2021 03:01:56 +0000

In this podcast with Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist extend on our research on the circular economy by analysing how circular the Australian economy is. We estimate that due to Australia’s relatively high extraction of resources and materials, Australia is at a higher risk from disruption caused by a transition to a circular economy. This could have market consequences in the future.

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Agriculture update – welcome to the juggle

Mon, 22 Feb 2021 04:46:46 +0000

In our quarterly update with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist we discuss the improving macroeconomic environment and the emerging topic of interest, inflation. Tobin discusses if there are any signs of inflation in the agriculture space and what that might mean. Tobin and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist also provide an update on the turf war and if we are likely to see any developments in 2021. Tobin also discusses the impact of Aussie – China trade tensions, the wheat crop in Australia and what the outlook is for beef and sheep in Australia.

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Green is the new black in a post-COVID world

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 01:33:16 +0000

Continuing with our recent focus on sustainable economic growth, this podcast with Carol Kong from our International Economics & Currency Strategy team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist delves into recent fiscal stimulus plans and how “green” these are. While carbon emissions did drop during 2020 and some recovery plans have been greener than others, more can be done and there are benefits both in an economic sense as well as for the climate.

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Household Spending Intentions – January 2021

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 22:02:16 +0000

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for January 2021 showed relatively widespread improvement in spending intentions at the start of the year – despite some Covid-19 related lockdowns in various parts of the country. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results for January which show Home Buying, Travel, Health & fitness, Entertainment and Education spending intentions were all up on the month. Retail and Motor vehicle spending intentions were flat on the month. We also provide our latest thoughts on the state of the economic recovery and where the risks lie.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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Australian residential property prices to rise strongly

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 04:36:31 +0000

Momentum in the Australian property market has surged and leading indicators point to strong price rises. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the property market has performed recently and how new lending, interest rates and other indicators of momentum point to strong price rises in 2021 and 2022. Risks remain, both to the upside and the downside, but overall they are skewed to the upside.

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Will US climate policy result in a sea change for Australia?

Thu, 04 Feb 2021 05:20:28 +0000

US President Joe Biden cemented his commitment to tackling the climate emergency on his first day in office. In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, discuss the core elements of President Biden’s climate policy. His policies are ambitious, with a global, not just a US focus. Many economies, including Australia, could be impacted. For Australian businesses, opportunities and challenges lie ahead. As a result, Australia’s businesses need to be cognisant of global climate targets as well as focussing on Australia’s climate policies.

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Is Hydrogen the future?

Thu, 28 Jan 2021 05:37:38 +0000

Hydrogen has gathered significant attention lately as the focus shifts to more sustainable economic growth and decarbonising economies. In this podcast, Vivek Dhar, Mining and Energy Commodities Strategist discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist why hydrogen is getting more attention, who will use it and what the demand prospects are like. Vivek also discusses if it is economical to produce ‘green’ hydrogen as well as if Australia is well placed to take advantage of a new hydrogen economy.

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Introducing the Circular Economy

Thu, 28 Jan 2021 01:52:30 +0000

How to make economic growth more sustainable is increasingly in focus. Environment, Social and Governance factors are becoming more integrated into the investment landscape. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the traditional model of economic growth, the linear model and introduce the Circular Economy and the four Rs, reduce, reuse, recycle and recover. The transition from linear to circular will take time and will also be disruptive and can be sped up by governments, businesses and investors.

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The case for and against higher inflation in 2021

Wed, 20 Jan 2021 22:40:42 +0000

The base case remains for low inflation in 2021 underpinned by soft wages growth, low inflation expectations and a firmer Australian Dollar. However large fiscal stimulus leading to strong income growth has raised the prospect of some demand pull inflation. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics discuss the case for both low inflation and higher inflation over the coming year and what that means for the Reserve Bank of Australia and inflation forecasts.

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December edition of the Household Spending Intention (HSI) series

Mon, 18 Jan 2021 22:02:35 +0000

In our first podcast for 2021, Kim Mundy and Belinda Allen delve in to the December edition of the Household Spending Intention (HSI) series. The last edition for 2020 showed that at the end of last year there was a very welcome improvement in spending intentions for Travel, Health & Fitness, Entertainment and Motor Vehicles. Home Buying and Retail spending intentions were flat on the month, following strong gains in November, with Education spending intentions also tracking sideways. Early in 2021, a few of the major cities in Australia have had to implement some lockdowns and restrictions to jump on an uptick in Covid-19 infections. Some state border closures have been re-established and as a result Belinda also discusses the most recent weekly card spend report.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Household Spending Intentions – November 2020

Mon, 14 Dec 2020 22:03:41 +0000

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the November edition of the Household Spending Intentions report. The data showed a solid improvement in Home Buying and Retail spending intentions – as the Australian economy continues its recovery. Entertainment and Motor Vehicle spending intentions were both modestly higher in November. Travel spending intentions were flat on the month, while Health & fitness and Education spending intentions both declined. As Stephen points out though there are reasons to be optimistic looking in to 2021 with consumer sentiment at a decade high, income growth remaining strong and savings levels elevated.

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State economic outlook and infrastructure pipeline

Thu, 10 Dec 2020 04:53:59 +0000

The public sector infrastructure pipeline has risen significantly. This will help transition the Australian economy away from income support measures and contribute significantly to Australia’s economic growth in 2021. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Kristina Clifton and Nicolas Guesnon discuss the importance of infrastructure and then delve into how the various state economies are performing in 2020 and what we can expect in 2021.

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Australia’s economic recovery begins

Wed, 02 Dec 2020 06:07:54 +0000

Australia’s economic recovery commenced in Q3 20 with a lift in GDP of 3.3%/qtr. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the result and discuss the uneven nature of the various state economies as well as how household spending, business investment, residential construction and public spending impacted the result. Importantly the trends in place around consumption, income and savings suggest the recovery is on track and this is likely to have implications for RBA policy in 2021.

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What is next for America?

Thu, 26 Nov 2020 05:41:31 +0000

It has been over three weeks since the US election and the official transition from President Trump to President-elect Biden is underway. The outlook for the US economy under a Biden Administration will largely depend on the makeup of the US Congress, which is still being decided. If the Republicans regain control of the Senate this will limit the amount of policy change for Biden. At this stage we expect Biden to focus on COVID-19, tax policy, infrastructure spend and climate change. Overall we expect an improving US economy with more predictability will be positive for the US and positive for the world economy.

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Agriculture update – how soon is eventually?

Mon, 23 Nov 2020 05:42:38 +0000

In our quarterly update with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist we discuss how Covid-19 is still impacting particular commodities including cotton and sugar. We also discuss how supply and demand fundamentals for agri-commodities are tracking for wheat, corn and oilseeds. Importantly, as Tobin discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist this may foreshadow a Turf War in season 2021. Finally Tobin and Belinda discuss Australia-China trade tensions and what we need to watch for barley, wheat and wine.

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The Australian labour market

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 06:04:43 +0000

The October labour market data was a clear surprise to the upside. While we have a non-consensus optimistic view on the economic recovery in 2021 and the recovery in the labour market, even this data surprised us. In the podcast Belinda Allen, Kristina Clifton and Nicolas Guesnon discuss how the labour market is performing, what the outlook is and also whether the uneven downturn in the labour market will lead to an uneven recovery.

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October Household Spending Intentions report

Mon, 16 Nov 2020 22:00:05 +0000

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest Household Spending Intentions report. The data shows mixed results across the main spending categories – as the effects of the Victorian shutdown lingered. Home buying, Retail and Travel spending intentions tracked sideways in October, while Entertainment spending intentions improved. Health & fitness, Education and Motor vehicle spending intentions softened in October. As Stephen points out though there are reasons to be optimistic with fiscal and monetary easing expanded and as CBA credit & debit card spend data for November also showing a lift as restrictions are eased in Victoria.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Australian economic recovery will be strong

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:45:16 +0000

The Australian economic recovery looks set to be strong in 2021 and we upgrade our economic forecasts as a result. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen Senior Economist discuss the five green shoots underway in the Australian economy; the path of COVID-19, consumer sentiment, income support, the housing market and domestic tourism and what it means for the economy and the RBA.

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Double dip global recession?

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:53:32 +0000

The bounce in global economic activity over Q3 20 was better than expected, but this is not expected to last. However it will mean the total economic contraction in 2020 is less than first feared. We now expect both the UK and the Eurozone to enter a double dip recession and further stimulus by both central banks. Kim Mundy, Senior Economist discusses the outlook with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist as well as what the downside risks and upside risks are. Finally Kim provides a snap shot of the economic outlook in China, Japan, the Eurozone and the UK.

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RBA eases monetary policy in November

Tue, 03 Nov 2020 23:43:14 +0000

As expected the RBA cut interest rates and launched a $A100bn quantitative easing program at its November Board Meeting. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist take you through the details of the decision and why the RBA decided to ease policy now as the economic outlook improves. Gareth and Belinda also discuss what the RBA is trying to achieve and what other policy options are left for the RBA if they need to do more in 2021.

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The global economy needs a confidence ‘shot’

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 22:32:06 +0000

COVID-19 case numbers are rising again in the US and Europe. The new outbreaks lead to questions over whether lockdown measures will be implemented, and the impact on the economy. Carol Kong from the International Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how this wave is different to the first wave and what the global economy needs to help it recover. Ideally a vaccine and more fiscal easing will give the economy the ‘shot’ it needs to recover.

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Inflation rebounds in Q3 and RBA Preview

Wed, 28 Oct 2020 07:29:31 +0000

Another extraordinary data release with a 1.6% lift in third quarter headline inflation in Australia. Join Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen Senior Economist as they discuss the trends evident in inflation. COVID-19 has impacted consumer prices including child care, food, rent and household furnishings. While the inflation outlook appears muted there are some risks worth considering given the impact of significant monetary and fiscal easing. Gareth also answers the questions of what we expect from the RBA at the November Board meeting and what they are trying to achieve.

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Government bonds – is it time to turn Green?

Tue, 27 Oct 2020 01:17:57 +0000

In a change of pace in this podcast, Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income and Currency Strategy and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the rise of investing based on Environment, Social and Governance factors. In a rising trend, particularly in Europe, more government bonds are being issued in this space based on the demand from investors. COVID-19 appears to have accelerated this trend and Martin and Belinda discuss the state of play in Australia for green bond issuance.

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September Household Spending Intentions and RBA update

Mon, 19 Oct 2020 22:01:11 +0000

The September edition of the Household Spending Intentions report shows Stage 4 lockdowns in Victoria continued to impact the series in September. Overall a bumpy recovery is underway in Australia and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the outlook from here and what role the further easing of fiscal policy and the now expected easing by the RBA will play.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US election: Delays and disputes

Wed, 14 Oct 2020 22:05:37 +0000

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist that delays in vote counting in the upcoming US Presidential election are likely because of a large increase in mail-in votes. There is also a high risk the losing candidate disputes the election, further lifting uncertainty. With less than 3 weeks to go, state polls in swing states remain close.

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Budget 2020/21 – Extraordinary times, extraordinary outcomes

Tue, 06 Oct 2020 13:15:41 +0000

The 2020/21 Budget has detailed an extraordinary deficit of $A213.7bn, which at an estimated 11.0% of GDP is the largest budget deficit since the end of WWII. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the budget numbers, the new policy announcements and sense check the economic assumptions. Debt will rise from here but the economic return on this debt though outweighs the cost and closes the gap between extraordinary monetary policy support and a further easing of fiscal policy.

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Federal Budget and RBA preview

Tue, 29 Sep 2020 21:58:14 +0000

It is shaping up to a big Tuesday 6th October with both the 2020/21 Federal Budget handed down as well as the October RBA Board Meeting. In this podcast with Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist they outline the key details to watch in the Budget beyond the headline deficit number. Key policies expected include income tax cuts, a business investment allowance and more infrastructure spending. Budget repair though is still a fair way off and will depend on an improvement in the unemployment rate. No changes are expected to monetary policy at the October RBA meeting even though market expectations have shifted over the past week. Despite the expectation for policy on hold, Gareth and Belinda discuss what the RBA’s preferred policy measures could be if further easing is required.

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Will a vaccine “cure” the world economy?

Wed, 23 Sep 2020 00:59:35 +0000

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discusses whether a vaccine will “cure” the world economy. Together with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, they detail that vaccine effectiveness, production and distribution are all not guaranteed. The success of each of these will have consequences for the pace of recovery in the world economy. Just as important will be consumer and business responses to the vaccine and any behavioural changes. Also they discuss that the longer it takes for low income economies to vaccinate, the slower the economic recovery will be.

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Australian GDP profile upwardly revised

Mon, 21 Sep 2020 06:59:37 +0000

Australia’s economic contraction for 2020 is now expected to be less severe than previously thought. Our shift in view has primarily been driven by an upgrade to our GDP estimate for Q3. Two key pieces of economic data provided the evidence to upgrade – CBA Credit / Debit card spending and hours worked. Both have tracked stronger than originally expected. The news is encouraging. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the changes, how this compares to current official forecasts and what it means for growth beyond the September quarter.

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August Household Spending Intentions report

Mon, 14 Sep 2020 23:03:22 +0000

The August edition of the Household Spending Intentions report shows the impact of Vic lockdowns on a number of categories. The improvement seen during July in Home Buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Education spending intentions all stalled in August. Health and Fitness spending intentions picked up in August, while Motor vehicle spending intentions continued to edge higher. More income support is likely needed to help transition the Australian economy. The Budget is due 6 October and the bring forward of personal income tax cuts will help.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How COVID-19 is impacting on Agriculture

Sun, 13 Sep 2020 23:22:50 +0000

The impacts of COVID-19 on the broader economy are well known, but there are also large impacts on the agriculture industry. In this podcast Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how eating at home rather than out is changing demand for particular types of food. Other issues discussed include labour supply, supply chain risks, lost demand and of course the weather and Australia-China trade tensions.

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Dwelling price outlook – smaller falls now more likely

Fri, 11 Sep 2020 00:00:43 +0000

The decline in dwelling prices nationally since the outbreak of COVID-19 has been smaller than anticipated. But capital city variation has been wider than expected. In this podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the drivers of dwelling prices and the recently revised forecasts. A smaller peak to trough fall is now expected and a solid recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2021 as interest rates return to be the dominant driver of prices.

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US Presidential Election outlook

Tue, 08 Sep 2020 03:11:03 +0000

The US Presidential Election is on 3 November 2020. In this podcast with Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, they discuss how the election outcome is closer than generally believed. Joe also discusses how the US voting system is different to Australia and why that matters. COVID-19 could also change the vote count at this year’s election. Belinda and Joe also highlight some policy differences and similarities between the two candidates. Finally three potential election outcome scenarios are identified.

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A review of Australia’s Q2 GDP numbers

Wed, 02 Sep 2020 06:43:36 +0000

It was a hotly anticipated set of numbers and in the end the Australian economy recorded a 7% fall in Q2 GDP. A recession is underway but it is a very unique recession as it was manufactured by government policy to control the spread of COVID-19. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the major themes in the data which included a large lift in savings and government spending and a plunge in household consumption. All the state economies contracted but performance should diverge in Q3 as lockdown measures differ between states.

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RBA policy options – moving down the unconventional path

Thu, 27 Aug 2020 06:17:40 +0000

With the Australian economy set to record a deep contraction in 2020 and a slow recovery in 2021, the conversation turns to what other policy options can be employed by both fiscal policy and monetary policy. In this podcast with Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, two options of ‘unconventional unconventional’ monetary policy are discussed; negative interest rates and modern monetary theory, and the likelihood of its use in Australia. With these options still off the table for now, other ‘conventional unconventional’ policy options that could be expanded on are explored.

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Medium term economic consequences of COVID-19 on the Australian economy.

Mon, 24 Aug 2020 22:16:36 +0000

We take a step back from the day to day economic data flow in this podcast and have a think about the medium term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss five implications: elevated labour market spare capacity and very weak wages growth; record low interest rates; very weak credit growth; reduced net overseas migration; and big fiscal deficits accompanied by rising public debt. Against that backdrop will we see a change in the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy?

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Potholes in the global economic outlook

Thu, 20 Aug 2020 06:24:08 +0000

The 2020 global economic outlook has been downgraded again in 2020 as rising coronavirus cases occur and high frequency data softens. In this podcast Kim Mundy from the International Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the global outlook for 2020 and 2021, where the risks lie, both upside and downside. Kim also shares an outlook snapshot for China, the US, Europe, Japan and the UK.

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July Household Spending Intentions and the early indicators of August spending habits

Mon, 17 Aug 2020 23:03:57 +0000

Prior to the imposition of the stage 4 lock-down in greater Melbourne, the CBA Household Spending Intentions series for July showed solid improvement in the majority of spending categories. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the report and what categories saw gains and losses in the month. With stage 4 lock-down now in place in Metropolitan Melbourne, Stephen and Belinda also discuss the latest CBA card spend data up until 14 August to see how this is impacting spending decisions in all the states.

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Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What did July’s labour market data really mean and an update on Victoria

Thu, 13 Aug 2020 06:44:26 +0000

It was another data heavy week for Australia. The focus was on the labour market. In short, wages growth slowed faster than anticipated, the July labour market data was better at the surface but high frequency data suggests this will not last. Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen from the Australian Economics team dissect the data and what it means for the outlook as well as discuss what the latest lockdown measures mean for the Victorian economic outlook.

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Where do Australia’s exports to China end up?

Tue, 11 Aug 2020 04:51:18 +0000

Australia’s trade relationship with China continues to be in the headlines. It is well known China is Australia’s number one export destination with approximately 40% of Australia’s exports going to China. The next question is, how are they used? In this podcast with Kevin Xie, China Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist a detailed discussion takes place on how China uses Australia’s exports in investment, consumer goods and re-exports and if this is being impacted by the pandemic and trade tensions.

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Victoria’s lockdown and Australia’s economic outlook

Fri, 07 Aug 2020 06:18:20 +0000

It was another extraordinary week for the Australian economy and the challenges of forecasting in a pandemic were on display once again. In this podcast with Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, the RBA’s Statement on Monetary policy and new economic forecasts are discussed and how they differ from the Global Economic & Market Research teams. The stage 4 lockdown in Victoria has prompted a weaker economic outlook and we discuss the internal data we are watching for how Victoria is tracking as well as preview the July Labour Force data.

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An update on Australia’s inflation outlook and what to expect from the RBA

Fri, 31 Jul 2020 03:10:53 +0000

It was another week for extraordinary economic data in Australia. The June quarter inflation print was the weakest since the Great Depression. But what does this mean for the inflation and wages outlook? Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the inflation data, what income is being seen in CBA bank accounts as well as what we can expect from the August RBA Board Meeting and Statement on Monetary Policy.

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What is helicopter money?

Tue, 28 Jul 2020 06:34:04 +0000

In our latest Podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discusses “helicopter money” with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. This topic has received more attention in recent months due to some prominent economists and central bankers openly discussing its costs and benefits. In the Podcast they discuss the difference between helicopter money, monetary financing and quantitative easing as well as when monetary financing may be appropriate. A discussion of some of the costs of what at first glance appears ‘free money’ also takes place.

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Extraordinary deficits for an extraordinary time

Thu, 23 Jul 2020 07:02:51 +0000

Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the July Economic and Fiscal Update released on 23 July. The size of the deficits and increase in Australian government debt are large and must be placed in context of the economic situation Australia is currently experiencing. Stephen and Belinda also discuss the importance of thinking about the economic return on this debt, the economic forecasts as well as what we could expect from the October budget.

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Super Tuesday: Confidence, household spending and income support in Australia

Tue, 21 Jul 2020 06:45:23 +0000

In this podcast with Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist an update on CBA Household Spending Intentions in June is provided which gives a great benchmark for household behaviour pre recent coronavirus cases in Victoria. Stephen and Belinda also discuss what the weekly card spend data is showing in July so far and an update on what we are seeing in Victoria. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has spoken about the importance of confidence and where RBA policy can and can’t go from here. Stephen also shares his thoughts on the extension to JobSeeker and JobKeeper and what we can expect from the July Economic and Fiscal Update on 23 July.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The evolving global economic recovery

Thu, 16 Jul 2020 23:03:40 +0000

In our latest Podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics talks with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist about whether there is light at the end of the tunnel for the global economy. The current global recession is peculiar and so too will be the recovery. The recovery will contain high unemployment, low inflation and low interest rates. But the recovery could soon run out of puff as pent up demand is satiated. Belinda and Joseph also discuss potential longer term economic impacts from Covid-19 such as reduced migration, travel and transport restrictions and other industry changes.

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Pathway to Recovery – Part Two

Wed, 15 Jul 2020 00:53:55 +0000

In the second part of the Pathway to Recovery series Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist delve into other reforms that are needed to help the Australian economy recover. The importance of infrastructure development, energy policy and industrial relations are discussed. Bankruptcy’s have fallen sharply during Covid-19 as a temporary change in the regulatory framework has allowed a pause on some regulations. The management of this will be equally important in helping the economic recovery. Constructive Federal-State relations will also play a key role as will education and skills training to give Australia a workforce for the future.

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Pathway to Recovery – Part One

Wed, 15 Jul 2020 00:38:35 +0000

The return of parts of Victoria to Stage 3 lockdown has led to a revision in Australia’s economic outlook. It also serves as a timely reminder of the risks to the economic outlook. In this podcast, part one of a two part series title Pathway to Recovery, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the current economic outlook as well as the role of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the recovery. Stephen also highlights the main risks to the outlook including rising coronavirus cases, the end of policy support, population growth and China-Australia trade tensions.

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Economic outlook for the Australian States

Mon, 06 Jul 2020 23:05:51 +0000

The Covid-19 pandemic is causing a variation in the outlook for each State economy in Australia. In this Podcast, Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen discuss the major themes impacting each State and what the outlook is. Victoria appears to be lagging and is most at risk given the recent lift in coronavirus numbers as well as exposure to foreign students. Western Australia and Queensland are helped by the exposure to commodities while NSW could underperform.

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Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to deeper ties in the Eurozone and an update on Brexit

Wed, 01 Jul 2020 23:54:00 +0000

The Covid-19 pandemic has revived long standing warnings about the impending demise of the Eurozone. Elias Haddad, Senior Strategist based in London and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss whether the Eurozone will come out of this crisis with deeper ties. The other big uncertainty hanging over the European continent is the state of the post-Brexit trade negotiations. Discussions around future trade deals continue in the UK and this podcast provides an update on what we can expect.

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Are there green shoots amidst the uncertainty in Australia?

Mon, 29 Jun 2020 23:04:18 +0000

The Australian economy is encountering a deep economic contraction. However the situation the Australian economy finds itself in now, is better than the one first feared back in March 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic was unfolding. In this podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the revised Australian economic outlook and the seven green shoots that have driven this shift in thinking.

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Economic outlook for the major economies in 10 minutes

Thu, 25 Jun 2020 03:36:57 +0000

The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global growth outlook in June, but how does it compare to our outlook? Kim Mundy from the International Economic team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the IMF downgrade as well as the outlook for the following economies; the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, China and New Zealand and where the risks lie to the outlook.

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Industry performance in a Covid-19 safe economy

Tue, 23 Jun 2020 00:16:26 +0000

As we look to a recovery in the Australian economy each industry will face different hurdles in its performance. Border closures, social distancing requirements, changing work patterns and confidence levels are all drivers to watch. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the outlook for construction, accommodation & food services, mining, manufacturing and the retail sector.

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Will a second wave of the coronavirus lead to a double dip recession in the US?

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 23:06:41 +0000

Coronavirus case numbers are rising again in the US, leading to concerns over a double dip recession. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how a second wave of coronavirus could impact the US economy. They use other countries like Sweden and China to discuss the outlook as well as how the US economy is currently performing.

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Did CBA Household Spending Intentions shift gears in May?

Mon, 15 Jun 2020 23:09:01 +0000

The patterns of spending in the Australian economy continue to be impacted by the policies to slow the spread of Covid-19 – with some big changes now evident. This podcast features Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic & Markets Research and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discussing the May edition of the HSI and interesting developments in Home Buying and Retail spending intentions. They also discuss what will be important drivers of the outlook, namely confidence, income and the roll off of government support measures as well as what we can expect from May’s labour market report.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Which country is most impacted from the lack of international tourism?

Thu, 11 Jun 2020 02:09:42 +0000

Covid-19 and widespread border closures has dramatically reduced international tourism. In this podcast, Kim Mundy from the International Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the impact from international tourism on major countries including Australia, NZ, UK and the US. Some scenarios on when borders are reopened are also detailed and how this will impact on economic growth. Finally the importance of education exports is also discussed for Australia.

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Is the outlook improving for the Australian economy?

Thu, 04 Jun 2020 23:07:04 +0000

Australia’s GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2020 as drought, bushfires and Covid-19 saw a fall in private demand. While public spending is at its highest share of the economy on record. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the Australian economy is tracking, what we can expect in Q2 and the rest of 2020. The RBA also left the cash rate on hold in June, the podcast also details what the RBA is thinking and how long the cash rate will remain steady for.

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Are there green shoots in the global economy?

Tue, 02 Jun 2020 00:01:48 +0000

The global economy contracted sharply in April and there are some signs that was the worst point. A recovery will come, but there are question marks over the pace of recovery. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss if there are green shoots in the global economy as well as what pace the recovery will take. Factors such as reshoring of manufacturing activity, cost cutting, international tourism consumer confidence are all discussed.

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Australia’s government led income shock

Fri, 29 May 2020 00:53:29 +0000

In this podcast with Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, we delve into insights provided by income data flowing into CBA bank accounts. The data shows the large positive shock underway from government benefits (JobSeeker and other support payments) is more than offsetting a loss from wages and salaries. While this is positive now and will help support spending during the Covid-19 crisis, the real question is what happens in September and October as these payments run out.

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What Australian States will outperform during COVID-19? Plus an update on the global economy and China trade relations

Mon, 25 May 2020 23:27:52 +0000

Australia’s economy will face a deep recession in the June quarter. We expect each state to experience a downturn and then recovery, but the pace of each will differ between states. Kristina Clifton, Senior Economist shares her thoughts on how the pace of easing of restrictions, foreign student share, migration numbers and tourism of exposure will all impact growth. Head of International Economics, Joseph Capurso shares an update on how the global economy is tracking, what high frequency data he is watching and how China’s economy and trade relationships are faring.

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A recession is on the cards for Australia and April Household Spending Intentions update

Mon, 18 May 2020 23:03:58 +0000

A quirk of the timing of Australia’s economic downturn could see one single quarter of contraction in economic activity. This would mean Australia could avoid a ‘technical’ definition of a recession. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, explain why this is an outdated definition and whichever way the data lands over coming months Australia will be in recession. The April edition of the CBA Household Spending Intentions series has been released and there were falls in Home Buying, Travel, Entertainment and Education. We explain what this means for retail sales and how CBA card spend data is tracking in May.

------DISCLAIMER------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An explainer on the Australian economic outlook

Mon, 11 May 2020 03:01:19 +0000

The RBA released updated economic forecasts on 8th May. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the details and also how they differ to the Global Economic & Markets Research teams economic forecasts. April labour market data is due 14th May and the news will be sobering. This podcasts discusses the outlook for the labour market and how internal CBA high frequency data is helping piece together our view.

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What can help spark Australia’s economic road to recovery

Mon, 04 May 2020 06:02:09 +0000

The Australian economy is set to record a sharp contraction in economic growth in 2020. We expect a slower recovery than the RBA in 2021. We will find out more detail this week on the RBA’s forecasts in the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy. In this podcast between Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist a number of different policy options are discussed as to what could help promote growth in the Australian economy once the COVID-19 crisis is over.

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The coronavirus recession versus a typical recession

Mon, 27 Apr 2020 06:53:13 +0000

In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discuss how the expected coronavirus recession will differ to your typical recession experienced both in Australia and globally. We discuss how economic activity, unemployment and inflation is expected to perform versus a normal recession. The short answer is it will be deeper, take longer to recovery and lead to elevated unemployment rates. We also discuss China’s economic performance around the coronavirus and lessons we can use.

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CBA Household Spending Intentions for March

Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:33:00 +0000

COVID-19 is having a dramatic impact on household spending on goods and services in the Australian economy. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic & Markets Research and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discusses the CBA Household Spending Intention series for March. This series combines CBA credit and debit card data and publicly available Google Trends search data to drill down into seven categories of household spending - Retail, Health & Fitness, Home Buying, Education, Travel, Entertainment and Motor Vehicles. The results are surprising and provide unique insights to how COVID-19 is shaping household spending decisions.

To find out more on the Household Spending Intention series visit https://www.commbank.com.au/business/latest/spending-intentions.html

DISCLAIMER

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australian Housing Market Outlook

Fri, 17 Apr 2020 06:07:04 +0000

The Australian housing market is set to fall over the next six months as measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus impact population growth, sentiment for housing and the labour market. In this podcast Gareth Aird, the Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how and why the Australian housing market is expected to perform and both the risks in both directions to these forecasts.

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Australian Economic Outlook

Wed, 08 Apr 2020 22:56:42 +0000

The Australian economy has entered a period of extraordinary circumstances and the normally difficult job of forecasting is even more challenging. In this podcast we outline our current thinking of the performance of the Australian economy over the June quarter and how this will impact on the labour market and consumer spending. Gareth Aird, our Head of Australian Economics also details the latest RBA Board Meeting.

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Global Economic Outlook

Wed, 08 Apr 2020 01:31:49 +0000

Global economic growth is set to record a sharp and deep contraction in 2020 due to government led shutdowns to control the coronavirus. The contraction is expected to be much deeper than the GFC and lead to elevated unemployment rates and prolonged government stimulus measures. In this podcast we explore the outlook for the key economies of the US, Europe and Japan.

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Tracking the economic impact from COVID-19

Mon, 06 Apr 2020 00:00:31 +0000

The last two weeks has continued to see unprecedented action from central banks and governments around the world to slow the transmission of COVID-19. These are having a direct economic impact we are seeing in high frequency economic data. The third stimulus announcement by the Australian government should help limit the rise in unemployment. We analyse the package, what it means for the economy and the budget bottom line and check in on the RBA’s quantitative easing program.

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Global Economic & Markets Podcast - Episode 1 - 23.03.2020

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 02:00:25 +0000

The last few weeks has seen unprecedented action as a health crisis has turned into an economic crisis and financial market crisis. Governments and central banks have acted aggressively and swiftly. The Commonwealth Bank's Global Economic and Markets Update unpacks the announcements, what it means and the balancing act governments are undertaking.

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