The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

Thanks to our sponsors:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI

04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won

05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party

06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic

07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics

08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell

08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA

10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit

11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over

12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism

13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota

15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives

16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them

17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch

18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives

19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries

20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees

21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks

22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising

22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances

23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people

24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t

25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them

26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies

26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up

28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess

29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley

30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots

31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley

32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong

33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem

34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won

36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems

38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked

40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives

42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive

42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle

43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left

44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t

46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors

47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?

49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party

50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over

51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries

51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary

52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote

53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff

55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping

57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary

57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970

58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House

59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter

1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice

1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note

1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly

1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message

1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said

1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger

1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company

1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public

1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party

1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 

1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model

1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things

1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too

1:15:00 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets

1:17:00 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC

1:18:00 #4 Carol Moseley Braun

1:18:45 #3 Andrew Gillum

1:19:45 #2 Eric Cantor

1:20:45 #1 David Crawley

1:22:15 Honorable mentions

1:23:45 Ask Chuck

1:24:00 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?

1:27:00 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?

1:34:45 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?

1:38:45 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?

1:41:15 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger

1:42:15 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out

1:43:00 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion

1:44:30 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now

1:45:30 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet

1:46:15 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore

1:47:00 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats

1:48:00 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent

1:49:30 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.

Then, Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.

The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? 

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

Thanks to our sponsors:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI

04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won

05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party

06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic

07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics

08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell

08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA

10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit

11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over

12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism

13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota

15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives

16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them

17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch

18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives

19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries

20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees

21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks

22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising

22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances

23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people

24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t

25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them

26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies

26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up

28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess

29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley

30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots

31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley

32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong

33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem

34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won

36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems

38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked

40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives

42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive

42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle

43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left

44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t

46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors

47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?

49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party

50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over

51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries

51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary

52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote

53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff

55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping

57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary

57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970

58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House

59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter

1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice

1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note

1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly

1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message

1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said

1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger

1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company

1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public

1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party

1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 

1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model

1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things

1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too

1:16:45 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:17:45 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”

1:18:00 What is the plan?

1:18:30 To get political change we need, we need to change the system

1:19:15 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level

1:19:45 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform

1:20:30 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess

1:22:30 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom

1:23:00 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems

1:24:00 We keep having change elections, then not getting change

1:26:15 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history

1:29:15 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win

1:30:15 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote

1:31:45 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself

1:36:15 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?

1:36:45 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing

1:39:15 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare

1:40:00 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass

1:41:00 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters

1:42:15 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws

1:43:00 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book

1:43:30 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age

1:44:45 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?

1:45:30 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years

1:46:30 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy

1:47:30 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate

1:48:45 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle

1:51:30 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?

1:52:15 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs

1:53:00 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works

1:55:00 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it

1:56:30 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters

1:57:00 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it

1:57:45 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems

1:58:15 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done

1:58:45 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win

2:01:15 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say

2:02:45 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan

2:04:15 How big should the Democratic tent be?

2:05:15 The coalition looks different in different states

2:06:45 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era

2:07:30 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model

2:08:00 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”

2:09:45 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties

2:12:30 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies

2:13:30 You build a local brand through your actions over time

2:14:15 When did you first think about running for office?

2:16:15 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games

2:17:45 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season

2:19:00 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?

2:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets

2:22:30 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC

2:23:30 #4 Carol Moseley Braun

2:24:15 #3 Andrew Gillum

2:25:15 #2 Eric Cantor

2:26:15 #1 David Crawley

2:27:45 Honorable mentions

2:29:15 Ask Chuck

2:29:30 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?

2:32:30 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?

2:40:15 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?

2:44:15 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?

2:46:45 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger

2:47:45 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out

2:48:30 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion

2:50:00 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now

2:51:00 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet

2:51:45 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore

2:52:30 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats

2:53:30 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent

2:55:00 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? 

Thanks to the sponsors of The Chuck ToddCast:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”

01:15 What is the plan?

01:45 To get political change we need, we need to change the system

02:30 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level

03:00 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform

03:45 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess

05:45 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom

06:15 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems

07:15 We keep having change elections, then not getting change

09:30 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history

12:30 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win

13:30 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote

15:00 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself

19:30 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?

20:00 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing

22:30 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare

23:15 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass

24:15 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters

25:30 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws

26:15 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book

26:45 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age

28:00 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?

28:45 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years

29:45 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy

30:45 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate

32:00 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle

34:45 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?

35:30 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs

36:15 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works

38:15 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it

39:45 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters

40:15 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it

41:00 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems

41:30 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done

42:00 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win

44:30 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say

46:00 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan

47:30 How big should the Democratic tent be? 

48:30 The coalition looks different in different states

50:00 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era

50:45 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model

51:15 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”

53:00 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties

55:45 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies

56:45 You build a local brand through your actions over time

57:30 When did you first think about running for office?

59:30 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games

1:01:00 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season

1:02:15 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead

00:45 Previewing the primaries

01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats

02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection

03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats

04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad?

05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack

06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline

06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work 

08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024?

09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted

10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race

11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle

12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech?

12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here

14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent

15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation

17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers

20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand?

22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu

23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about

23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s

25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats

26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth

28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud

30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake

31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly

32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs

33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028

34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice

36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent

37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets

38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016

41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you

41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds

42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition

44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide

45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record

46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore?

47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard

48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard

49:18 Cassidy & Blanche 

50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families

51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself

53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him

53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money? 

54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat?

54:20 Nats sweep the Reds

55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds?

57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics manager

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then takes on the question of why Democratic voters keep rewarding progressives whose politics they don't actually share, and his answer is that half the Democratic electorate did not suddenly become socialist — they're furious about 2024, and specifically about leadership deciding the nominee for them. They didn't dislike Harris; they wanted a choice, and they'd watched the establishment coalesce around Biden in 2020 to produce a presidency that ended with Trump's return. Progressives are the only Democrats willing to say the party screwed up, and voters will give you enormous latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis. Chuck illustrates it with a Washington Post story about the Conn brass instrument factory in Ohio, bought by Trump-supporting, tariff-championing investor John Paulson and now closing as production moves offshore — where the disillusioned employees don't plan to vote at all, because they feel the system has failed them for decades. He believes the opening in American politics right now isn't centrism, it's breaking up an establishment that voters believe is more worried about losing donors than losing their votes. He wonders aloud whether the answer is a military leader — he's intrigued by retired General Chris Donahue, essentially Captain America on paper, pushed out by Trump and Hegseth, with credibility across the aisle. Americans are exhausted by being told the other half of the country is the bad guy, they're desperate for honesty and a reboot of a captured government, and the space is wide open for someone to fill it. But Chuck’s closing caution matters: the system is badly screwed up, and that still isn't a reason to burn it all down.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two different but related events: the signing of the Social Security Act by FDR, and Richard Nixon announcing price and wage controls to combat inflation. Chuck argues that America has always flirted with socialism even if we call it by another name. He also answers listeners questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Trump’s crazy Greenland oil adventure 

01:15 Trump is just ignoring the laws of another country

01:45 Craziest detail is oil company hired Dr. Phil to document the expedition

02:15 Trump has gone out of his way to alienate European allies

02:45 Oprah gave us Dr. Oz & Dr. Phil… which is not a good thing

06:45 U.S. senate leaves town for recess after passing funding bill

07:15 Todd Blanche is now the confirmed AG for the United States

08:00 Republicans passed none of the things they said are priorities

09:00 GOP has a trifecta and still can’t get anything done

10:00 Was wrong about Blanche, didn’t think he’d actually get confirmed

10:45 Confirmed 50-49, not surprising Collins & Murkowski defected

11:45 Cassidy’s rationale was “Trump needs someone to tell him no”

12:15 Cassidy’s rationale is laughable

13:15 Even Bill Barr had a line he wouldn’t cross with Trump

14:45 The senate gave away what little leverage they have with Trump

16:00 John Cornyn says “there’s nothing we can do to rein in the president”

16:30 These Republicans are cowards, won’t exercise their authority*

17:00 These senators need to do their job

18:00 Blanche said the rule of law belongs to Trump, DOJ won’t be independent

19:00 Debate is now if AG is the people’s lawyer or the president’s lawyer

19:45 If he were alive, Trump would have nominated Roy Cohn

20:30 You don’t want presidents deciding who gets investigated

21:30 Trump got involved with Reflecting Pool vandal case THIS WEEK

22:30 Trump’s entire life has been about wearing people down

23:15 Republicans have politicized DOJ more than any previous admin

23:45 MAGA’s premise is that two wrongs do make a right

24:15 Does anybody in congress understand the constitution?

25:30 Confirming Blanche will cause more public distrust in DOJ

26:30 Founders never wanted the president to determine rule of law

27:00 Senate didn’t get crypto or college sports bill passed before recess

27:45 Republicans claim SAVE act is existential, didn’t pass it

28:45 Why do voters entertain progressives that don’t align with them?

29:15 Half the democratic electorate didn’t suddenly become socialist

30:30 Democratic voters are pissed off, think party messed up in 2024

31:00 Voters are mad leadership decided who the ‘24 nominee would be

31:30 Voters didn’t dislike Harris, but they wanted a choice

32:30 In 2020, the establishment coalesced around Biden

33:15 Biden’s presidency was a failure since it resulted in Trump returning

34:00 Progressives are the only Dems saying the party screwed up

35:30 Like Trump, the progressives are saying leadership is full of shit

36:15 Voters will give you latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis

37:00 WaPo story about Conn factory closing & private equity

38:00 Factory is in Ohio, been making brass instruments

38:45 Factory is closing and laying off all the employees

39:30 Conn was bought by John Paulson, Trump supporter who supports tariffs

40:30 Paulson is moving production offshore after arguing against it

42:00 Plant employees were completely disillusioned with politics

43:00 Employees feel like the system has left them down for decades, won’t vote

44:30 Romney’s loss was due to millions of white voters sitting out entirely

45:15 Trump’s appeal brought those voters back into the electorate

47:15 Voters reward candidates that can diagnose & call out their problems

48:00 Trump proved politically dormant voters can be reactivated

48:30 There’s always a third destination for voters… the couch

49:00 If the two parties don’t reform themselves, they risk being replaced

50:15 The opening isn’t centrism, it’s breaking up the establishment

51:15 Politics requires huge amounts of money, results in capture

52:15 Voters believe reps are more worried about losing donors than their vote

53:00 Competence and morality are not the same thing in politics

53:45 Leaders need to admit that they screwed everything up

54:30 Americans are desperate for a reset & are embracing revolutionaries

55:00 A military leader might be exactly what we need in next president

55:45 Intrigued by retired general Chris Donahue & his resume

56:45 Donahue is basically Captain America & was forced out by Trump & Hegseth

58:15 Someone like Donahue could have the credibility across the aisle

59:30 Politics won’t acknowledge failure if they think it helps the other side

1:00:00 Americans are desperate for honesty & morality in politics

1:01:15 It’s exhausting being told the other half of America is the bad guys

1:03:15 Voters want to preserve the Republic, but don’t trust the leadership

1:04:00 Voters want a reboot, and a government that isn’t captured

1:05:00 The political space is waiting for someone to fill this vacuum

1:06:00 The system is screwed up, but we shouldn’t burn it all down

1:11:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Where America embraces socialism

1:12:30 Socialist policies have come from presidents of both parties

1:13:45 FDR signs the Social Security Act - Nixon announces price & wage controls

1:14:45 Americans worry about prosperity, not ideological consistency

1:17:15 Capitalism was being questioned after the Great Depression

1:17:45 FDR wanted to repair, not replace capitalism

1:18:30 Social Security started as a much smaller program than it is today

1:19:15 Congress continued adding to the program over the years

1:21:15 America imposed price & wage controls during WW2 that went beyond Nixon

1:22:00 August 15, 1971 - Nixon announces price & wage controls

1:23:15 Nixon was desperate to stop inflation

1:24:15 Administration announced ceilings on meat prices, caused shortages

1:25:30 The controls were lifted right before the election

1:26:45 We have plenty of socialist policies called by another name

1:27:45 The policies give the sense of individual control

1:28:30 Americans are allergic to government control over their choices

1:29:15 Government under Trump is acquiring stakes in American companies

1:31:00 America has always been more socialist than we like to admit

1:32:45 Ask Chuck

1:33:00 Are college educated Republican voters on the journey leftward?

1:37:00 How should Abdul El-Sayed respond to racist & Islamophobic attacks?

1:45:30 Do candidates on the same ballot create measurable coattails?

1:50:00 Any chance Republicans voted for El-Sayed thinking he’d be easier to beat?

1:53:00 Was Pirro’s dropping of Reflecting Pool case an offramp for Trump?

1:56:00 How does an everyday person help make real political change?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then takes on the question of why Democratic voters keep rewarding progressives whose politics they don't actually share, and his answer is that half the Democratic electorate did not suddenly become socialist — they're furious about 2024, and specifically about leadership deciding the nominee for them. They didn't dislike Harris; they wanted a choice, and they'd watched the establishment coalesce around Biden in 2020 to produce a presidency that ended with Trump's return. Progressives are the only Democrats willing to say the party screwed up, and voters will give you enormous latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis. Chuck illustrates it with a Washington Post story about the Conn brass instrument factory in Ohio, bought by Trump-supporting, tariff-championing investor John Paulson and now closing as production moves offshore — where the disillusioned employees don't plan to vote at all, because they feel the system has failed them for decades. He believes the opening in American politics right now isn't centrism, it's breaking up an establishment that voters believe is more worried about losing donors than losing their votes. He wonders aloud whether the answer is a military leader — he's intrigued by retired General Chris Donahue, essentially Captain America on paper, pushed out by Trump and Hegseth, with credibility across the aisle. Americans are exhausted by being told the other half of the country is the bad guy, they're desperate for honesty and a reboot of a captured government, and the space is wide open for someone to fill it. But Chuck’s closing caution matters: the system is badly screwed up, and that still isn't a reason to burn it all down.

Then, Oscar-nominated documentarian Rory Kennedy joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing, her Netflix follow-up to 2022's Downfall premiering August 19th — a film built around the death of whistleblower John Barnett and the current and former employees who came forward after it. Kennedy's central finding is damning in its simplicity: at the end of Downfall, Boeing swore it had learned its lesson and changed its ways. It hadn't. More incidents followed, whistleblowers reached out to tell her conditions had actually gotten worse, and she says she believes Boeing bears responsibility for Barnett's death. Kennedy walks Chuck through the structural rot she sees behind the headlines — a near-total lack of competition, a revolving door between the FAA and the company it's supposed to regulate, a McDonnell Douglas merger that reoriented the entire culture around quarterly earnings instead of engineering excellence, and the decision to leave Seattle in search of a non-union workforce — which matters enormously, she notes, because unions are what give workers real whistleblower protection. Boeing is simultaneously one of the most heavily subsidized companies in American history and, right now, one that isn't being held accountable in any meaningful way.

Kennedy is unusually direct about the practical takeaway: she won't fly on a 737 MAX and actively chooses flights on other aircraft, pointing out the counterintuitive reality that older model planes are often the safer bet — a consumer shift that has hit budget airlines hardest. She and Chuck get into the incidents that never made national news, including oxygen masks that failed to work, and she's blunt that the Trump administration hasn't provided anything resembling adequate regulatory oversight while families of the 346 crash victims are still fighting to hold the company responsible. Kennedy sees this fall's elections as a genuine chance to put people in place who care about the flying public, and reflects candidly on how she's feeling about American politics generally — that this administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people. There's also a lovely detour into Ethel, her documentary about her mother, which she says holds a special place in her heart, plus a look at what she's working on next.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two different but related events: the signing of the Social Security Act by FDR, and Richard Nixon announcing price and wage controls to combat inflation. Chuck argues that America has always flirted with socialism even if we call it by another name. He also answers listeners questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Trump’s crazy Greenland oil adventure 

01:15 Trump is just ignoring the laws of another country

01:45 Craziest detail is oil company hired Dr. Phil to document the expedition

02:15 Trump has gone out of his way to alienate European allies

02:45 Oprah gave us Dr. Oz & Dr. Phil… which is not a good thing

06:45 U.S. senate leaves town for recess after passing funding bill

07:15 Todd Blanche is now the confirmed AG for the United States

08:00 Republicans passed none of the things they said are priorities

09:00 GOP has a trifecta and still can’t get anything done

10:00 Was wrong about Blanche, didn’t think he’d actually get confirmed

10:45 Confirmed 50-49, not surprising Collins & Murkowski defected

11:45 Cassidy’s rationale was “Trump needs someone to tell him no”

12:15 Cassidy’s rationale is laughable

13:15 Even Bill Barr had a line he wouldn’t cross with Trump

14:45 The senate gave away what little leverage they have with Trump

16:00 John Cornyn says “there’s nothing we can do to rein in the president”

16:30 These Republicans are cowards, won’t exercise their authority*

17:00 These senators need to do their job

18:00 Blanche said the rule of law belongs to Trump, DOJ won’t be independent

19:00 Debate is now if AG is the people’s lawyer or the president’s lawyer

19:45 If he were alive, Trump would have nominated Roy Cohn

20:30 You don’t want presidents deciding who gets investigated

21:30 Trump got involved with Reflecting Pool vandal case THIS WEEK

22:30 Trump’s entire life has been about wearing people down

23:15 Republicans have politicized DOJ more than any previous admin

23:45 MAGA’s premise is that two wrongs do make a right

24:15 Does anybody in congress understand the constitution?

25:30 Confirming Blanche will cause more public distrust in DOJ

26:30 Founders never wanted the president to determine rule of law

27:00 Senate didn’t get crypto or college sports bill passed before recess

27:45 Republicans claim SAVE act is existential, didn’t pass it

28:45 Why do voters entertain progressives that don’t align with them?

29:15 Half the democratic electorate didn’t suddenly become socialist

30:30 Democratic voters are pissed off, think party messed up in 2024

31:00 Voters are mad leadership decided who the ‘24 nominee would be

31:30 Voters didn’t dislike Harris, but they wanted a choice

32:30 In 2020, the establishment coalesced around Biden

33:15 Biden’s presidency was a failure since it resulted in Trump returning

34:00 Progressives are the only Dems saying the party screwed up

35:30 Like Trump, the progressives are saying leadership is full of shit

36:15 Voters will give you latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis

37:00 WaPo story about Conn factory closing & private equity

38:00 Factory is in Ohio, been making brass instruments

38:45 Factory is closing and laying off all the employees

39:30 Conn was bought by John Paulson, Trump supporter who supports tariffs

40:30 Paulson is moving production offshore after arguing against it

42:00 Plant employees were completely disillusioned with politics

43:00 Employees feel like the system has left them down for decades, won’t vote

44:30 Romney’s loss was due to millions of white voters sitting out entirely

45:15 Trump’s appeal brought those voters back into the electorate

47:15 Voters reward candidates that can diagnose & call out their problems

48:00 Trump proved politically dormant voters can be reactivated

48:30 There’s always a third destination for voters… the couch

49:00 If the two parties don’t reform themselves, they risk being replaced

50:15 The opening isn’t centrism, it’s breaking up the establishment

51:15 Politics requires huge amounts of money, results in capture

52:15 Voters believe reps are more worried about losing donors than their vote

53:00 Competence and morality are not the same thing in politics

53:45 Leaders need to admit that they screwed everything up

54:30 Americans are desperate for a reset & are embracing revolutionaries

55:00 A military leader might be exactly what we need in next president

55:45 Intrigued by retired general Chris Donahue & his resume

56:45 Donahue is basically Captain America & was forced out by Trump & Hegseth

58:15 Someone like Donahue could have the credibility across the aisle

59:30 Politics won’t acknowledge failure if they think it helps the other side

1:00:00 Americans are desperate for honesty & morality in politics

1:01:15 It’s exhausting being told the other half of America is the bad guys

1:03:15 Voters want to preserve the Republic, but don’t trust the leadership

1:04:00 Voters want a reboot, and a government that isn’t captured

1:05:00 The political space is waiting for someone to fill this vacuum

1:06:00 The system is screwed up, but we shouldn’t burn it all down

1:13:00 Rory Kennedy (Freefall) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:14:30 Documentary “Ethel” about her mother holds special place in her heart

1:15:30 It became evident that Boeing knew about faulty systems on 737 MAX

1:16:15 Boeing swore they’d change, then more incidents happened

1:17:15 Believe Boeing is responsible for whistleblower John Barnett’s death

1:19:15 Lack of competition is one of the reasons Boeing has been sloppy

1:20:15 There’s a revolving door between the FAA and Boeing

1:22:00 Are Boeing’s problems coming from a single source, or multiple?

1:23:45 Boeing has long been a foundational American company

1:24:30 Parts for Boeing planes come from all over the world

1:26:00 Whistleblowers reached out to say problems had gotten worse

1:27:00 Right now, Boeing isn’t being held accountable

1:27:30 Haven’t seen Boeing make significant changes

1:29:15 Focus on profits and quarterly earnings outweighed safety

1:30:00 Boeing is one of the most subsidized companies in US history

1:31:00 McDonnell-Douglas merger has contributed to Boeing’s downfall

1:33:30 Wouldn’t fly on a 737 MAX and choose flights on other planes

1:36:00 Consumers choosing not to fly on the 737 MAX hurt budget airlines

1:37:00 Older model planes are actually safer

1:38:30 Decision to leave Seattle was to find a non-union workforce

1:39:45 Unions protect workers, give them whistleblower protection

1:41:00 Airbus is a better run company than Boeing

1:42:30 Boeing and Airbus are the only two options

1:44:45 The Trump administration hasn’t provided proper regulation for Boeing

1:45:15 Families of crash victims are still trying to hold Boeing responsible

1:48:15 Elections this fall could put people in place who care about the public

1:49:45 Incidents where the oxygen masks weren’t working

1:51:30 How are you feeling about politics these days?

1:52:00 Administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people

1:53:30 What projects do you have coming up next?

1:56:00 Had a screening at Boeing with top executives

1:57:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Where America embraces socialism

1:58:45 Socialist policies have come from presidents of both parties

2:00:00 FDR signs the Social Security Act - Nixon announces price & wage controls

2:01:00 Americans worry about prosperity, not ideological consistency

2:03:30 Capitalism was being questioned after the Great Depression

2:04:00 FDR wanted to repair, not replace capitalism

2:04:45 Social Security started as a much smaller program than it is today

2:05:30 Congress continued adding to the program over the years

2:07:30 America imposed price & wage controls during WW2 that went beyond Nixon

2:08:15 August 15, 1971 - Nixon announces price & wage controls

2:09:30 Nixon was desperate to stop inflation

2:10:30 Administration announced ceilings on meat prices, caused shortages

2:11:45 The controls were lifted right before the election

2:13:00 We have plenty of socialist policies called by another name

2:14:00 The policies give the sense of individual control

2:14:45 Americans are allergic to government control over their choices

2:15:30 Government under Trump is acquiring stakes in American companies

2:17:15 America has always been more socialist than we like to admit

2:19:00 Ask Chuck

2:19:15 Are college educated Republican voters on the journey leftward?

2:23:15 How should Abdul El-Sayed respond to racist & Islamophobic attacks?

2:31:45 Do candidates on the same ballot create measurable coattails?

2:36:15 Any chance Republicans voted for El-Sayed thinking he’d be easier to beat?

2:39:15 Was Pirro’s dropping of Reflecting Pool case an offramp for Trump?

2:42:15 How does an everyday person help make real political change?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kennedy is unusually direct about the practical takeaway: she won't fly on a 737 MAX and actively chooses flights on other aircraft, pointing out the counterintuitive reality that older model planes are often the safer bet — a consumer shift that has hit budget airlines hardest. She and Chuck get into the incidents that never made national news, including oxygen masks that failed to work, and she's blunt that the Trump administration hasn't provided anything resembling adequate regulatory oversight while families of the 346 crash victims are still fighting to hold the company responsible. Kennedy sees this fall's elections as a genuine chance to put people in place who care about the flying public, and reflects candidly on how she's feeling about American politics generally — that this administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people. There's also a lovely detour into Ethel, her documentary about her mother, which she says holds a special place in her heart, plus a look at what she's working on next.

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

00:00 Rory Kennedy (Freefall) joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Documentary “Ethel” about her mother holds special place in her heart

02:30 It became evident that Boeing knew about faulty systems on 737 MAX

03:15 Boeing swore they’d change, then more incidents happened

04:15 Believe Boeing is responsible for whistleblower John Barnett’s death

06:15 Lack of competition is one of the reasons Boeing has been sloppy

07:15 There’s a revolving door between the FAA and Boeing

09:00 Are Boeing’s problems coming from a single source, or multiple?

10:45 Boeing has long been a foundational American company

11:30 Parts for Boeing planes come from all over the world

13:00 Whistleblowers reached out to say problems had gotten worse

14:00 Right now, Boeing isn’t being held accountable

14:30 Haven’t seen Boeing make significant changes

16:15 Focus on profits and quarterly earnings outweighed safety

17:00 Boeing is one of the most subsidized companies in US history

18:00 McDonell-Douglas merger has contributed to Boeing’s downfall

20:30 Wouldn’t fly on a 737 Max and choose flights on other planes

23:00 Consumers choosing not to fly on the 737 Max hurt budget airlines

24:00 Older model planes are actually safer

25:30 Decision to leave Seattle was to find a non-union workforce

26:45 Unions protect workers, give them whistleblower protection

28:00 Airbus is a better run company than Boeing

29:30 Boeing and Airbus are the only two options 

31:45 The Trump administration hasn’t provided proper regulation for Boeing

32:15 Families of crash victims are still trying to hold Boeing responsible

35:15 Elections this fall could put people in place who care about the public

36:45 Incidents where the oxygen masks weren’t working

38:30 How are you feeling about politics these days?

39:00 Administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people

40:30 What projects do you have coming up next?

43:00 Had a screening at Boeing with top executives

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results

05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win

06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party

08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed

09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities

11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids

14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades

16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP

17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote

19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton

20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold

23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties

23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions

24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation

25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory

27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win

29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI

31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary

33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar

34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters

35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court

36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed

37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans

37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one

38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\

39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems

39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton

40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race

41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election

43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states

44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats

46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes

46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes

47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax

49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser

49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people

50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly

50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller

50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women

51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues

52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically

53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida

55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty

55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool

56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court

57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality

58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline

58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran

59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war

1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high

1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option

1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over

1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened

1:08:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats

1:10:45 #1 Kansas governor

1:12:15 #2 Michigan senate

1:14:00 #3 Oregon governor

1:15:15 #4 Wisconsin governor

1:16:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats

1:19:45 Ask Chuck

1:20:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?

1:23:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?

1:25:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?

1:32:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?

1:34:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?

1:38:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.

The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.

Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST

for 30% off your first order.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results

05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win

06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party

08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed

09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities

11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids

14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades

16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP

17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote

19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton

20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold

23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties

23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions

24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation

25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory

27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win

29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI

31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary

33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar

34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters

35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court

36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed

37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans

37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one

38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\

39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems

39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton

40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race

41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election

43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states

44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats

46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes

46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes

47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax

49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser

49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people

50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly

50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller

50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women

51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues

52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically

53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida

55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty

55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool

56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court

57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality

58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline

58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran

59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war

1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high

1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option

1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over

1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened

1:10:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:12:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?

1:14:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?

1:15:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War

1:16:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon

1:17:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was

1:18:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2

1:19:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik

1:21:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them

1:22:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure

1:22:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it

1:23:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”

1:23:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust

1:24:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history

1:25:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers

1:25:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc

1:26:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie

1:28:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t

1:29:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful

1:30:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript

1:32:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage

1:34:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room

1:35:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik

1:37:45 The whole world was waiting/watching the summit with bated breath

1:38:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?

1:39:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%

1:40:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?

1:41:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?

1:42:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?

1:43:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio

1:44:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge

1:45:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history

1:46:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take

1:47:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it

1:50:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc.

1:53:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories

1:55:15 What’s your dream project?

1:56:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved

1:59:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?

2:00:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get

2:02:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats

2:04:45 #1 Kansas governor

2:06:15 #2 Michigan senate

2:08:00 #3 Oregon governor

2:09:15 #4 Wisconsin governor

2:10:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats

2:13:45 Ask Chuck

2:14:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?

2:17:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?

2:19:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?

2:26:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?

2:28:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?

2:32:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?

04:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?

05:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War

06:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon

07:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was

08:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2

09:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik

11:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them

12:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure

12:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it

13:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”

13:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust

14:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history

15:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers

15:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc

16:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie

18:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t

19:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful

20:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript

22:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage

24:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room

25:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik

27:45 The whole world was waiting/waiting the summit with bated breath

28:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?

29:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%

30:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?

31:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?

32:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?

33:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio

34:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge

35:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history

36:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take

37:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it

40:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc

43:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories

45:15 What’s your dream project?

46:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved

49:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?

50:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever 

00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong

00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close

01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County

02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment

03:18 The Bernie problem

05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed

05:44 Big money got rejected

06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser

07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity

08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble

09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement

13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday

14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary

15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican 

16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand

17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party

18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live

19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds?

20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy

20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling

22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska?

23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire 

24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it

27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing

28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner

29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers?

32:41 The Max Miller deadline

33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen

34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it

36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story

38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal

39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying

40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always

41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money?

41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028

43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal

45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America

45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom

47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court

48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them

49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism

51:33 Both parties crashed this car

51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater

53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau

54:08 The Nats fire sale

55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later

55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fight

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, Chuck highlights a Wall Street Journal piece that lays out Trump's corruption — roughly $800 million raised through what amounts to an advertised pay-to-play scheme. Anti-corruption is a devastating midterm message sitting right there for Democrats to pick up… then Chuck Schumer rolled out a bill that Chuck calls a piece of garbage: it wouldn't even cover the conduct in the WSJ story, it's likely unconstitutional because it names individuals, and — most absurdly — it creates a new anti-corruption agency inside the executive branch, meaning a corrupt president would appoint its director and seven board members and, per the Supreme Court, could fire them at will. Congress can already do every bit of the oversight the agency would perform and Schumer's answer to executive corruption is to hand the executive more power and write Congress out of its own job. He closes on Michigan and Wisconsin as the clearest signals of where the Democratic Party is headed — Abdul El-Sayed running a movement inside a Senate race with the explicit goal of changing the party, DSA-endorsed Francesca Wong leading in Wisconsin while the establishment fails to coordinate against her — and on the DSA's new call to abolish the Senate, which Senate Democrats pushed back on without ever defending the institution. Chuck defends it himself: the Senate is a feature, not a bug, a brake on political extremism, and the right response to losing an argument is to win it rather than rewrite the rules. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Watergate and Richard Nixon’s resignation, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The Iran war has become a global conflict

06:45 Once again Trump issues threats, then walks them back

08:15 War is one of biggest strategic mistakes in decades

09:00 Increased gas prices have cost households additional $560

10:30 CISA warns that Iranian hackers are targeting water infrastructure

11:15 Iran could cause unreliability to the American water supply

13:00 Trump used hacking attacks to blame Minnesota Democrats

13:45 Trump didn’t blame the attacker, he blamed the victim

15:30 Jeanine Pirro blamed former Olympian for damage to reflecting pool

16:00 Dept. of Interior had documents proving otherwise, Pirro dropped case

17:00 Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury

18:30 Trump publicly disagreed with Pirro dropping case, says it was vandals

19:30 Trump’s staff is shielding him from the truth

21:00 Trump’s lack of understanding reality is terrible for him

21:30 Trump’s low approval is a midterm disaster in the making

23:00 Stephanie Grisham says 85% of negative info is kept from Trump

24:15 People who bring Trump bad news don’t last very long

25:30 Republicans aren’t campaigning like things are going well

26:00 Ken Paxton puts out an affordability agenda, looks like a Dem proposal

27:15 Trump still saying affordability is scam made up by Democrats

28:15 Trump can’t understand the reality of the situation

28:45 Was Trump briefed on Iran hack… then attacked Minnesota anyway?

30:00 Trump’s first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame

30:45 Trump is demented with polarization disease

31:15 Trump cares more about his narrative than American citizens

32:15 Trump is bragging about his grifting an Americans are tired of it

33:15 Anti-Corruption is a massively effective midterm strategy

33:45 Chuck Schumer rolls out a stinker of an anti-corruption bill

34:45 WSJ publishes airtight piece about Trump’s overt corruption

35:45 There’s no buffer or plausible deniability for Trump in the corruption story

36:45 Trump is basically advertising that government is a pay to play scheme

37:45 There’s a list of presidential promises for favors that have been bought

38:15 Trump has raised $800m in pay for play schemes with little accounting

39:00 There is no law outlawing a president from raising unlimited money

39:30 Trump is now the biggest alligator in the swamp

40:15 Schumer’s bill is a piece of garbage, why many senators didn’t sign on

41:45 Jamie Raskin is performing oversight, Schumer wants agency to do it for him

42:30 The bill wouldn’t even cover the corruption outlined by the WSJ story

44:00 The bill is unconstitutional because it names individuals

45:00 Laws can target behavior, not individuals. It’d be thrown out in court

45:45 The agency Schumer proposed would live in the executive branch

46:15 Agency to stop a corrupt president would be staffed by the president??

47:15 SCOTUS says president can fire the heads of exec branch agencies

48:45 If bill passed, Trump would pick agency head and 7 members of board

49:15 Congress can perform all the oversight the proposed agency would do

50:30 Congress could stop all this corruption if it wanted to

52:00 Schumer’s idea is to hand more power to the executive branch???

54:30 The plan from congress is to write themselves out of oversight?

57:00 Schumer’s bill will never see the light of day

57:45 Michigan & Wisconsin will show where the Democratic party is headed

59:30 Abdul El-Sayed made clear his goal is to change the Democratic party

1:00:15 His campaign is a movement inside a senate race

1:01:00 Francesca Wong in Wisconsin is frontrunner & endorsed by DSA

1:01:45 Establishment hasn’t coordinated well to stop Wong

1:02:15 Movement politicians are usually right about the future, wrong about present

1:03:30 Sometimes the movement comes first, sometimes the coalition does

1:04:00 DSA has become a force, and is now calling for abolishing the senate

1:05:00 Senate democrats pushed back, but didn’t defend the senate

1:05:45 The senate is a feature, not a bug

1:06:30 The senate is a brake on political extremism

1:07:15 The response is to win the argument, not rewrite the rules

1:08:00 Movement nominees are easier to defeat than governing ones

1:13:30 Toddcast Time Machine - The five days that ended Richard Nixon

1:14:00 Nixon resigned 52 years ago, this week

1:14:45 Why is Nixon the only president that paid a price for his corruption?

1:15:45 We tell the story of Watergate backwards and start with resignation

1:17:00 The June arrests weren’t the beginning of Watergate

1:18:45 We don’t know what Nixon’s operation learned before the arrests

1:20:30 We never got full answer on the missing 18 minutes

1:21:15 Supreme Court stayed in session during summer to oversee Watergate

1:21:45 Smoking gun tape goes public six days after the break-in

1:22:30 Nixon needed 34 votes in the senate to survive, only had 16

1:23:15 Impeachment in the house was a foregone conclusion

1:23:45 Senators didn’t demand he resign, just showed Nixon the numbers

1:27:00 How different would history have looked had Nixon survived?

1:27:45 Ask Chuck

1:28:00 Is presidency becoming more powerful in a way that could outlast Trump

1:31:00 Can the U.S. government create a true unbiased media source?

1:34:45 Would mandatory voting create better political participation?

1:39:15 Would Illinois make for a better early primary state?

1:41:00 Why not hold every primary on the same day?

1:43:15 Personal anecdote about AI job displacement and fear

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, Chuck highlights a Wall Street Journal piece that lays out Trump's corruption — roughly $800 million raised through what amounts to an advertised pay-to-play scheme. Anti-corruption is a devastating midterm message sitting right there for Democrats to pick up… then Chuck Schumer rolled out a bill that Chuck calls a piece of garbage: it wouldn't even cover the conduct in the WSJ story, it's likely unconstitutional because it names individuals, and — most absurdly — it creates a new anti-corruption agency inside the executive branch, meaning a corrupt president would appoint its director and seven board members and, per the Supreme Court, could fire them at will. Congress can already do every bit of the oversight the agency would perform and Schumer's answer to executive corruption is to hand the executive more power and write Congress out of its own job. He closes on Michigan and Wisconsin as the clearest signals of where the Democratic Party is headed — Abdul El-Sayed running a movement inside a Senate race with the explicit goal of changing the party, DSA-endorsed Francesca Wong leading in Wisconsin while the establishment fails to coordinate against her — and on the DSA's new call to abolish the Senate, which Senate Democrats pushed back on without ever defending the institution. Chuck defends it himself: the Senate is a feature, not a bug, a brake on political extremism, and the right response to losing an argument is to win it rather than rewrite the rules. 

Then, Dr. Brian King — the former director of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, who was placed on administrative leave in April 2025 as part of the mass HHS layoffs joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain what happens to public health when the agency charged with protecting it gets deliberately dismantled. King walks through the extraordinary progress America made reducing cigarette smoking over decades, and how quickly that's being unwound: the tobacco industry donated millions to Trump's PAC, executives pressured the White House directly, and the payoff has been regulatory capture and mounting pressure on the FDA to bring flavored products back to market. He's clear-eyed rather than absolutist on the science — combustible products are far and away the most harmful, nicotine itself is highly addictive but isn't what's killing people, though it's genuinely not risk-free for the adolescent brain — and he walks Chuck through the comparison to caffeine, the data on whether vaping serves as a gateway back into smoking, and what's actually known about nicotine pouches, where youth usage isn't high but stubbornly isn't declining either. The industry, meanwhile, is spending roughly a million dollars an hour advertising its products while fighting every government action to reduce smoking.

The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Watergate and Richard Nixon’s resignation, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The Iran war has become a global conflict

06:45 Once again Trump issues threats, then walks them back

08:15 War is one of biggest strategic mistakes in decades

09:00 Increased gas prices have cost households additional $560

10:30 CISA warns that Iranian hackers are targeting water infrastructure

11:15 Iran could cause unreliability to the American water supply

13:00 Trump used hacking attacks to blame Minnesota Democrats

13:45 Trump didn’t blame the attacker, he blamed the victim

15:30 Jeanine Pirro blamed former Olympian for damage to reflecting pool

16:00 Dept. of Interior had documents proving otherwise, Pirro dropped case

17:00 Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury

18:30 Trump publicly disagreed with Pirro dropping case, says it was vandals

19:30 Trump’s staff is shielding him from the truth

21:00 Trump’s lack of understanding reality is terrible for him

21:30 Trump’s low approval is a midterm disaster in the making

23:00 Stephanie Grisham says 85% of negative info is kept from Trump

24:15 People who bring Trump bad news don’t last very long

25:30 Republicans aren’t campaigning like things are going well

26:00 Ken Paxton puts out an affordability agenda, looks like a Dem proposal

27:15 Trump still saying affordability is scam made up by Democrats

28:15 Trump can’t understand the reality of the situation

28:45 Was Trump briefed on Iran hack… then attacked Minnesota anyway?

30:00 Trump’s first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame

30:45 Trump is demented with polarization disease

31:15 Trump cares more about his narrative than American citizens

32:15 Trump is bragging about his grifting an Americans are tired of it

33:15 Anti-Corruption is a massively effective midterm strategy

33:45 Chuck Schumer rolls out a stinker of an anti-corruption bill

34:45 WSJ publishes airtight piece about Trump’s overt corruption

35:45 There’s no buffer or plausible deniability for Trump in the corruption story

36:45 Trump is basically advertising that government is a pay to play scheme

37:45 There’s a list of presidential promises for favors that have been bought

38:15 Trump has raised $800m in pay for play schemes with little accounting

39:00 There is no law outlawing a president from raising unlimited money

39:30 Trump is now the biggest alligator in the swamp

40:15 Schumer’s bill is a piece of garbage, why many senators didn’t sign on

41:45 Jamie Raskin is performing oversight, Schumer wants agency to do it for him

42:30 The bill wouldn’t even cover the corruption outlined by the WSJ story

44:00 The bill is unconstitutional because it names individuals

45:00 Laws can target behavior, not individuals. It’d be thrown out in court

45:45 The agency Schumer proposed would live in the executive branch

46:15 Agency to stop a corrupt president would be staffed by the president??

47:15 SCOTUS says president can fire the heads of exec branch agencies

48:45 If bill passed, Trump would pick agency head and 7 members of board

49:15 Congress can perform all the oversight the proposed agency would do

50:30 Congress could stop all this corruption if it wanted to

52:00 Schumer’s idea is to hand more power to the executive branch???

54:30 The plan from congress is to write themselves out of oversight?

57:00 Schumer’s bill will never see the light of day

57:45 Michigan & Wisconsin will show where the Democratic party is headed

59:30 Abdul El-Sayed made clear his goal is to change the Democratic party

1:00:15 His campaign is a movement inside a senate race

1:01:00 Francesca Wong in Wisconsin is frontrunner & endorsed by DSA

1:01:45 Establishment hasn’t coordinated well to stop Wong

1:02:15 Movement politicians are usually right about the future, wrong about present

1:03:30 Sometimes the movement comes first, sometimes the coalition does

1:04:00 DSA has become a force, and is now calling for abolishing the senate

1:05:00 Senate democrats pushed back, but didn’t defend the senate

1:05:45 The senate is a feature, not a bug

1:06:30 The senate is a brake on political extremism

1:07:15 The response is to win the argument, not rewrite the rules

1:08:00 Movement nominees are easier to defeat than governing ones

1:14:15 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:18:00 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking

1:18:30 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture

1:19:15 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic

1:20:45 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry

1:21:30 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC

1:23:00 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking?

1:23:30 Combustible products are the most harmful

1:24:00 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths

1:24:45 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free

1:25:30 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine

1:27:15 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking

1:28:30 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products

1:31:00 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products

1:31:45 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking

1:33:15 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking

1:33:45 Why are cigarettes even legal at all?

1:35:15 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries

1:37:15 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective

1:37:45 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective

1:39:30 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act

1:41:15 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category?

1:42:15 What is age gating technology and how does it work?

1:44:15 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18?

1:46:45 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down

1:47:15 What is the data about health impacts from pouches?

1:48:45 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention

1:49:30 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity

1:50:00 States have diverted those funds to other purposes

1:51:00 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement?

1:51:45 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement?

1:52:15 FDA has been undermining the science and the law

1:53:15 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking

1:54:30 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star?

1:56:45 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own

1:57:30 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco

1:59:45 Is there litigation that could be pursued here?

2:01:00 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair

2:01:45 It will be hard to recruit people into public health

2:03:30 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health

2:05:15 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse

2:07:00 Toddcast Time Machine - The five days that ended Richard Nixon

2:07:30 Nixon resigned 52 years ago, this week

2:08:15 Why is Nixon the only president that paid a price for his corruption?

2:09:15 We tell the story of Watergate backwards and start with resignation

2:10:30 The June arrests weren’t the beginning of Watergate

2:12:15 We don’t know what Nixon’s operation learned before the arrests

2:14:00 We never got full answer on the missing 18 minutes

2:14:45 Supreme Court stayed in session during summer to oversee Watergate

2:15:15 Smoking gun tape goes public six days after the break-in

2:16:00 Nixon needed 34 votes in the senate to survive, only had 16

2:16:45 Impeachment in the house was a foregone conclusion

2:17:15 Senators didn’t demand he resign, just showed Nixon the numbers

2:20:30 How different would history have looked had Nixon survived?

2:21:15 Ask Chuck

2:21:30 Is presidency becoming more powerful in a way that could outlast Trump

2:24:30 Can the U.S. government create a true unbiased media source?

2:28:15 Would mandatory voting create better political participation?

2:32:45 Would Illinois make for a better early primary state?

2:34:30 Why not hold every primary on the same day?

2:36:45 Personal anecdote about AI job displacement and fear

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast

03:45 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking

04:15 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture

05:00 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic

06:30 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry

07:15 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC

08:45 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking?

09:15 Combustible products are the most harmful

09:45 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths

10:30 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free

11:15 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine

13:00 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking

14:15 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products

16:45 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products 

17:30 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking

19:00 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking

19:30 Why are cigarettes even legal at all?

21:00 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries

23:00 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective 

23:30 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective

25:15 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act

27:00 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category?

28:00 What is age gating technology and how does it work?

30:00 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18?

32:30 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down

33:00 What is the data about health impacts from pouches?

34:30 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention

35:15 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity

35:45 States have diverted those funds to other purposes

36:45 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement?

37:30 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement?

38:00 FDA has been undermining the science and the law

39:00 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking

40:15 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star?

42:30 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own

43:15 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco

45:30 Is there litigation that could be pursued here?

46:45 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair

47:30 It will be hard to recruit people into public health

49:15 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health

51:00 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:01:30 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

1:02:00 #5 Todd Achilles

1:04:30 #4 Dan Osborne

1:06:45 #3 Seth Bodnar

1:08:00 #2 Lisa Murkowski

1:09:00 #1 John Fetterman

1:11:45 Ask Chuck

1:12:45 Correction for answer on the last pod

1:15:00 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

1:22:15 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

1:25:30 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

1:29:00 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

1:34:15 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:04:15 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:05:30 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

1:06:45 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

1:07:15 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

1:07:45 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

1:09:30 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

1:10:00 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

1:10:45 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

1:11:15 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

1:13:00 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

1:13:30 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

1:14:00 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

1:15:00 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

1:16:30 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

1:17:15 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

1:18:00 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

1:18:45 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

1:19:15 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

1:20:00 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

1:20:45 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

1:22:00 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

1:22:45 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

1:23:15 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

1:23:45 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

1:25:30 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

1:26:00 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

1:27:00 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

1:27:45 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

1:28:15 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

1:29:45 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

1:30:15 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

1:31:15 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

1:32:00 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

1:32:30 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

1:33:00 How big should the Democratic tent be?

1:34:00 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

1:34:30 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

1:35:15 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

1:35:45 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

1:36:30 The president should be directly elected

1:37:00 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

1:37:45 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

1:39:15 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

1:40:00 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

1:40:30 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

1:41:15 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

1:41:45 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

1:42:15 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

1:44:30 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

1:45:45 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

1:46:15 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

1:47:00 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

1:47:30 Correlation between governor and senate races

1:50:15 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

1:50:45 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

1:52:00 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

1:52:45 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

1:53:30 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

1:54:30 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

1:55:15 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

1:56:00 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

1:57:30 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI

1:58:15 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

1:58:45 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

2:01:15 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

2:02:30 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

2:04:15 Favorite NBA team

2:05:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Andy Beshear

2:07:00 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

2:07:30 #5 Todd Achilles

2:10:00 #4 Dan Osborne

2:12:15 #3 Seth Bodnar

2:13:30 #2 Lisa Murkowski

2:14:30 #1 John Fetterman

2:17:15 Ask Chuck

2:18:15 Correction for answer on the last pod

2:20:30 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

2:27:45 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

2:31:00 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

2:34:30 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

2:39:45 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

02:30 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

03:00 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

03:30 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

05:15 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

05:45 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

06:30 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

07:00 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

08:45 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

09:15 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

09:45 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

10:45 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

12:15 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

13:00 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

13:45 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

14:30 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

15:00 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

15:45 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

16:30 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

17:45 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

18:30 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

19:00 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

19:30 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

21:15 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

21:45 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

22:45 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

23:30 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

24:00 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

25:30 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

26:00 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

27:00 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

27:45 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

28:15 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

28:45 How big should the Democratic tent be?

29:45 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

30:15 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

31:00 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

31:30 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

32:15 The president should be directly elected

32:45 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

33:30 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

35:00 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

35:45 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

36:15 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

37:00 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

37:30 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

38:00 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

40:15 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

41:30 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

42:00 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

42:45 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

43:15 Correlation between governor and senate races

46:00 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

46:30 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

47:45 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

48:30 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

49:15 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

50:15 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

51:00 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

51:45 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

53:15 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI 

54:00 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

54:30 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

57:00 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

58:15 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

1:00:00 Favorite NBA team

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar

01:00 The six-state lineup 

01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most

02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week

03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris?

04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina

06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith 

07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore

08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory

10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency

12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough

13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first

14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i

15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008

17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals 

20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party

21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore

23:00 Why start where you can't win in November?

25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg

27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker

30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party

31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups

32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off

35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps 

36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out

38:16 Trump will always make it about himself 

40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline

41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one

43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private 

45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country

45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president

46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement

48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes

50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome

53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community

54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day 

54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams

57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:16:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

1:16:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

1:17:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

1:17:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

1:18:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

1:19:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

1:19:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

1:20:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

1:21:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

1:21:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

1:22:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

1:23:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

1:24:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

1:26:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

1:27:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

1:28:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

1:29:00 Ask Chuck

1:29:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

1:32:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

1:37:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

1:41:00 Recommendations for political books?

1:46:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.

The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:17:45 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:19:45 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily

1:22:15 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?

1:23:00 We are ending the era of the family owned teams

1:24:00 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?

1:25:00 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in

1:25:45 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises

1:28:00 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?

1:29:45 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years

1:30:15 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon

1:30:45 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights

1:33:15 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games

1:33:45 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up

1:35:30 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks

1:37:30 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?

1:39:45 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies

1:42:15 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists

1:45:15 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN

1:46:00 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is

1:47:00 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream

1:49:15 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?

1:50:30 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray

1:52:30 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings

1:53:00 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings

1:55:15 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars

1:56:00 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 

1:58:15 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity

2:00:30 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 

2:01:15 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?

2:04:30 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?

2:07:45 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones

2:10:15 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?

2:15:30 Where you can find John’s work

2:17:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

2:17:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

2:18:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

2:18:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

2:19:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

2:20:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

2:20:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

2:21:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

2:22:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

2:22:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

2:23:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

2:24:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

2:25:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

2:27:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

2:28:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

2:29:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

2:30:00 Ask Chuck

2:30:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

2:33:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

2:38:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

2:42:00 Recommendations for political books?

2:47:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily

04:30 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?

05:15 We are ending the era of the family owned teams

06:15 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?

07:15 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in

08:00 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises

10:15 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?

12:00 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years

12:30 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon

13:00 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights

15:30 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games

16:00 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up

17:45 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks

19:45 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?

22:00 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies

24:30 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists

27:30 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN

28:15 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is

29:15 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream

31:30 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?

32:45 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray

34:45 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings

35:15 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings

37:30 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars

38:15 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 

40:30 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity

42:45 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 

43:30 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?

46:45 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?

50:00 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones

52:30 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?

57:45 Where you can find John’s work

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

01:14:00 #5 Oregon

01:15:00 #4 Ohio

01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

01:18:15 #2 Kansas

01:19:00 #1 Iowa

01:20:00 Ask Chuck

01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority

01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

02:14:00 #5 Oregon

02:15:00 #4 Ohio

02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

02:18:15 #2 Kansas

02:19:00 #1 Iowa

02:20:00 Ask Chuck

02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

02:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

03:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

05:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

06:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

06:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

07:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

08:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

09:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

11:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

13:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

15:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

16:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

17:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

18:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority 

21:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

22:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

22:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

24:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

25:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

27:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

27:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

29:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

30:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

30:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

31:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

33:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

35:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

37:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

38:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

39:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

40:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

42:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

43:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

45:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

46:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

47:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

49:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

49:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

50:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

51:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

52:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

55:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

56:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

57:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic convention and the ICE story has erased Susan Collins's post-Platner breathing room. Chuck and Chris also weigh the stalled Todd Blanche confirmation, the $400 million Qatari plane suddenly deemed too unsafe to fly, and why character and temperament remain the whole ballgame. Then they close on LeBron's looming decision — Heat, Cavs, or Sixers — and Chuck plugs the summer slate across the "Chuck Todd expanded universe."

Timeline:

00:00 105 days out from the midterms

02:07 Why August, not July, is when politics really kicks off

03:01 Why campaigns no longer wait for Labor Day to run their hits

04:34 Trump's approval is stuck below 40 a recipe for losing both chambers

05:44 ICE story erases whatever Collins got from the Platner disaster

06:49 Democrats are more motivated

07:23 Arizona Republicans line up to nominate a candidate who can't win

08:08 Trump's primetime speech relitigating 2020

09:26 GOP candidates on the trail are running as far from Trump as possible

10:50 Trump is too lazy to be a dictator

11:54 On 2020, Trump is on an island — even his own party won't follow

14:14 The history: 20 of the last 22 midterms punish the president's party

15:05 The generic ballot vs. 2018 and 2010, for reference

15:51 Why the generic ballot is now really a party-ID number

17:31 Trust the trend lines, not the raw numbers

19:59 The StateNavigate Georgia poll that floored them

20:49 Why Democrats peak in summer polling 

22:19 A smarter "informed ballot" experiment using Google search results

24:36 Democrats 62% to win the House, Republicans 59% to hold the Senate

25:20 Why the Senate number is lower than it should be 

26:54 Iowa as the 50-yard line for a wave

27:42 The daunting Senate map for Dems

30:04 Why the 62% House number surprised Chris

31:52 The one thing that changed all summer — a possible new forever war

32:56 The math favors the GOP: Democrats are playing a road game

34:18 No swing districts left, and a country sorted to the bone

36:03 South Carolina: Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special

36:56 Graham's appointed sister surprises by running for a full term

37:30 A rare case of Trump and the GOP doing the pragmatic thing

41:13 Troy Jackson set for a coronation

42:53 The stalled Todd Blanche confirmation & the $1.8B slush fund

43:15 Why the ICE story is a real problem for Collins

44:02 Ambition as a drug — Homan, Bovino, Noem & the $50k question

45:09 The Odyssey movie and how online discourse isn't real life

47:07 The $400M Qatari plane is suddenly too unsafe to fly

48:07 Character and temperament as the whole ballgame

50:20 Quotes that aged badly

52:05 Trump as Grover Cleveland 

53:34 LeBron's decision: Heat, Cavs, or Sixers

56:20 Miami and Denver as the best physical fits for a 40-year-old LeBron

57:34 The Hall of Fame "five rings table" and the chase for a fifth title

1:00:17 What the prediction markets say 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

He also explains why, contrary to much of the commentary, he wasn't alarmed by Trump's primetime election-denial address: it was a nothingburger. Trump has no evidence, which is why he keeps turning to cranks — his endorsement of Mike Lindell tells you everything — and there's no policy response attached to his own foreign-interference allegations, since China has faced no sanction whatsoever for what Trump claims it did. He argues American elections are extraordinarily hard to overturn precisely because the system is decentralized, that Trump is too lazy to become a Putin or a Mao… A more disciplined president would frighten Chuck far more. Chuck sees a forever war taking shape in Iran: the strategy amounts to throwing kinetic weight at the problem and hoping the regime collapses, while Iran fights the asymmetric war it always planned, targeting Gulf states and now civilian survival infrastructure — hitting desalination plants could trigger a crisis lasting years — and nobody in Washington actually knows how to win. He closes with a genuinely important profile of Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, the intellectual architect of the new right's foreign policy and a favorite of JD Vance, whose vision of American retreat from its allies would effectively be the policy of a President Vance: Colby has trashed Mark Carney's "middle power" strategy and declared that no country is entitled to the American defense industry — which,  notes, misses that buying military hardware is a 30-year bet on trusting an ally, and middle powers who conclude they can be coerced by Washington will simply take their money somewhere else. Quick hits on a messy Wisconsin governor's race (Tony Evers built no infrastructure and left no obvious heir in one of the country's most misunderstood swing states) and Tuesday's Arizona primary round things out.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to draw parallels between the arguments in modern American politics to the argument between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the infamous “kitchen debate” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Pensacola Beach is the home of the Blue Angels

03:15 Low flyover from Blue Angels generated massive controversy

03:45 Hegseth has allowed unsafe flyovers in the past

04:15 Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon has been awful

05:00 Hegseth used the flyover to try to “own the libs”

05:45 The low flyover at the beach was an honest mistake by the pilot

07:30 Online discourse about flyover was both sides trying to prove their point

08:30 Hegseth didn’t even bother to figure out the facts about the incident

09:00 The pilot felt terrible about the mistake, while Hegseth gloated

11:00 Why Chuck isn’t alarmed by Trump’s election denial primetime speech

11:45 Trump has tested constitutional boundaries unlike any other president

13:30 Trump’s endorsement of Mike Lindell says everything

14:00 Trump doesn’t have evidence of fraud, he turns to election denial cranks

15:15 Trump’s speech was a big fat nothingburger

16:30 Trump wanted government to interfere in the 2020 election

17:30 There’s no policy response to Trump’s allegations about foreign interference

18:30 China hasn’t received any sanction or response to allegations

20:00 Trump has lackeys cherry pick facts to try to sew mistrust in elections

22:00 It is extraordinarily difficult to overturn an American election

22:45 The electoral system is decentralized making it harder to meddle with

23:30 A president more disciplined than Trump would be a bigger worry

24:30 We need to repair structural weaknesses in the democracy

25:15 Trump is too lazy to become a dictator like Putin or Mao

26:00 Trump has his sycophants… but they all fear jail too

27:15 Trump wants other people to risk themselves to keep him in power

28:30 We’re on the road to a “forever war” in Iran

29:00 The plan is just to throw kinetic weight & hope the regime collapses

29:45 Iran’s whole strategy is asymmetric, targeting Gulf states

30:15 Iran is now targeting civilian survival infrastructure

30:45 Hitting desalination plants could create a yearslong crisis

31:30 Administration keeps doubling down on the same strategy

33:30 Nobody in Washington knows how to win the war

34:30 Pete Hegseth is an absolute clown… a fake soldier

35:00 The military testosterone discourse is both dumb and dangerous

36:00 Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has a big role in shaping policy

37:30 Colby wants America to retreat from the world & our allies

38:30 Colby has been embraced by JD Vance & the new right

39:15 Colby’s policies would be those of a President JD Vance

40:30 Allies realize they can be coerced by America

42:30 Colby trashed the “middle power” strategy of Mark Carney

43:00 Colby says nobody is entitled to the U.S. military industry

44:00 Buying military hardware is a 30 year bet on trusting an ally

45:00 Middle powers will look elsewhere to buy their military equipment

46:15 Hegseth wants to create testosterone driven “supertroopers”

47:00 Women aren’t being offered a similar screening

48:00 Jesse Watters comments on testosterone were beyond awful

48:30 Most watched cable host was making sexual assault jokes

49:15 Military has had a longstanding issue with sexual assault

50:00 Young men are marketed testosterone from influencers & now government

51:00 Taking outside testosterone shuts down natural production of it

51:45 Taking testosterone has major negative side effects

53:00 Our great military culture is being destroyed by Trump

53:30 The violence from ICE officers has been entirely predictable

54:15 DHS under Trump never deserves the benefit of the doubt

55:15 Officer involved in shooting had massive red flags in his background

56:00 ICE doesn’t appear to have any vetting process for recruits

1:00:00 Wisconsin governor’s race has become a political mess

1:01:00 Tony Evers didn’t build a strong infrastructure around him

1:01:30 Evers didn’t set up an obvious heir in the Democratic party

1:03:00 The party establishment hasn’t responded to all parts of the base

1:03:45 Wisconsin is one of the most misunderstood swing states

1:05:00 Democrats in Wisconsin have to make the political center comfortable

1:07:30 Arizona primary coming up on Tuesday

01:13:15 ToddCast Time Machine July 24, 1959  

01:13:45 Nixon and Krushchev host the “Kitchen Debate”  

01:14:45 The countries were showing off their way of life - Capitalism vs Communism  

01:15:30 Soviets set up a display in New York to show off their society  

01:16:15 Khrushchev believed history would belong to the communists  

01:16:45 The answer to the Soviet display was a model of an American home  

01:17:30 The argument was that a middle class worker could afford that home  

01:18:00 America showed it offered equality of opportunity, not outcome  

01:18:45 Krushchev and Nixon debated knowing the world would hear it  

01:19:45 Krushchev didn’t believe Americans actually lived that well  

01:20:15 Nixon argued that competition inspired innovation and growth  

01:21:45 Market capitalism proved to be the more dynamic economic system  

01:22:15 There are echoes of the Kitchen Debate in modern American discourse  

01:23:45 The Soviet Union disappeared, the debate hasn’t  

01:24:00 Ask Chuck  

01:24:15 Is MLB lockout avoidable? The state of baseball card collecting?  

01:34:45 Is Trump’s erosion of norms a form of the incrementalism you champion?  

01:38:15 What rights are D.C. & Puerto Rico residents still missing beside representation?  

01:44:00 What goes into a decision to run for office?  

01:47:30 MAGA just a rework of Reagan’s slogan? 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

He also explains why, contrary to much of the commentary, he wasn't alarmed by Trump's primetime election-denial address: it was a nothingburger. Trump has no evidence, which is why he keeps turning to cranks — his endorsement of Mike Lindell tells you everything — and there's no policy response attached to his own foreign-interference allegations, since China has faced no sanction whatsoever for what Trump claims it did. He argues American elections are extraordinarily hard to overturn precisely because the system is decentralized, that Trump is too lazy to become a Putin or a Mao… A more disciplined president would frighten Chuck far more. Chuck sees a forever war taking shape in Iran: the strategy amounts to throwing kinetic weight at the problem and hoping the regime collapses, while Iran fights the asymmetric war it always planned, targeting Gulf states and now civilian survival infrastructure — hitting desalination plants could trigger a crisis lasting years — and nobody in Washington actually knows how to win. He closes with a genuinely important profile of Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, the intellectual architect of the new right's foreign policy and a favorite of JD Vance, whose vision of American retreat from its allies would effectively be the policy of a President Vance: Colby has trashed Mark Carney's "middle power" strategy and declared that no country is entitled to the American defense industry — which,  notes, misses that buying military hardware is a 30-year bet on trusting an ally, and middle powers who conclude they can be coerced by Washington will simply take their money somewhere else. Quick hits on a messy Wisconsin governor's race (Tony Evers built no infrastructure and left no obvious heir in one of the country's most misunderstood swing states) and Tuesday's Arizona primary round things out.

Then, bestselling novelist Daniel Silva — creator of the Gabriel Allon series — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a conversation that starts with the craft of spy fiction and quickly becomes something closer to a threat assessment. Silva's newest plot turns on drones, and he's blunt that this isn't speculative: he believes it's a matter of time before a drone carries out an assassination or a mass-casualty attack. He talks about the strange responsibility of writing a fictional event that could plausibly happen next month, why he deliberately withholds visual detail so readers build the scene themselves, and what he learned reporting out how modern kidnappings and ransom negotiations actually work. The darker current running underneath is his read on American intelligence: the FBI is no longer the same place, the U.S. is jettisoning allies and hollowing out its agencies, and Silva poses the question a novelist is uniquely positioned to ask — if you're the GRU right now, where would you most want an asset placed? He notes that the best assets often don't know they're assets, that NATO held a crisis meeting about Trump, and that this is precisely the moment to be putting the screws to a vulnerable Putin, since Ukraine has victory in sight and isn't desperate for any deal.

The conversation turns personal when Chuck asks how Silva handles Israel's collapsing global reputation in a series built around an Israeli intelligence officer. Silva says the shift was entirely foreseeable, that he has no interest in writing about Gaza, and that what saddens him most is the "fortress Israel" mindset — a country founded on European-style socialist ideals now convinced it can go it alone, siloed from the world, while antisemitism surges globally in a way he warns only ever needs the right set of circumstances to reignite. He and Chuck range across the forces reshaping the century: giant corporations approaching the power of nation-states, a new generation of the ultra-wealthy who simply don't believe in philanthropy, AI's capacity to wipe out the knowledge economy, and Silva's conviction that the next great political crisis may be a climate-driven natural disaster — noting that the last major El Niño produced famines that killed millions, that today's migration patterns are already climate-driven, and that people are dying right now as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid. He's unsparing on writing and AI), amused and appalled that Trump has turned the National Mall into a mess with a reflecting pool gone "Kermit green," and closes on the question every prolific novelist gets asked and rarely answers honestly: does he ever actually rest?

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to draw parallels between the arguments in modern American politics to the argument between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the infamous “kitchen debate” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Pensacola Beach is the home of the Blue Angels

03:15 Low flyover from Blue Angels generated massive controversy

03:45 Hegseth has allowed unsafe flyovers in the past

04:15 Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon has been awful

05:00 Hegseth used the flyover to try to “own the libs”

05:45 The low flyover at the beach was an honest mistake by the pilot

07:30 Online discourse about flyover was both sides trying to prove their point

08:30 Hegseth didn’t even bother to figure out the facts about the incident

09:00 The pilot felt terrible about the mistake, while Hegseth gloated

11:00 Why Chuck isn’t alarmed by Trump’s election denial primetime speech

11:45 Trump has tested constitutional boundaries unlike any other president

13:30 Trump’s endorsement of Mike Lindell says everything

14:00 Trump doesn’t have evidence of fraud, he turns to election denial cranks

15:15 Trump’s speech was a big fat nothingburger

16:30 Trump wanted government to interfere in the 2020 election

17:30 There’s no policy response to Trump’s allegations about foreign interference

18:30 China hasn’t received any sanction or response to allegations

20:00 Trump has lackeys cherry pick facts to try to sew mistrust in elections

22:00 It is extraordinarily difficult to overturn an American election

22:45 The electoral system is decentralized making it harder to meddle with

23:30 A president more disciplined than Trump would be a bigger worry

24:30 We need to repair structural weaknesses in the democracy

25:15 Trump is too lazy to become a dictator like Putin or Mao

26:00 Trump has his sycophants… but they all fear jail too

27:15 Trump wants other people to risk themselves to keep him in power

28:30 We’re on the road to a “forever war” in Iran

29:00 The plan is just to throw kinetic weight & hope the regime collapses

29:45 Iran’s whole strategy is asymmetric, targeting Gulf states

30:15 Iran is now targeting civilian survival infrastructure

30:45 Hitting desalination plants could create a yearslong crisis

31:30 Administration keeps doubling down on the same strategy

33:30 Nobody in Washington knows how to win the war

34:30 Pete Hegseth is an absolute clown… a fake soldier

35:00 The military testosterone discourse is both dumb and dangerous

36:00 Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has a big role in shaping policy

37:30 Colby wants America to retreat from the world & our allies

38:30 Colby has been embraced by JD Vance & the new right

39:15 Colby’s policies would be those of a President JD Vance

40:30 Allies realize they can be coerced by America

42:30 Colby trashed the “middle power” strategy of Mark Carney

43:00 Colby says nobody is entitled to the U.S. military industry

44:00 Buying military hardware is a 30 year bet on trusting an ally

45:00 Middle powers will look elsewhere to buy their military equipment

46:15 Hegseth wants to create testosterone driven “supertroopers”

47:00 Women aren’t being offered a similar screening

48:00 Jesse Watters comments on testosterone were beyond awful

48:30 Most watched cable host was making sexual assault jokes

49:15 Military has had a longstanding issue with sexual assault

50:00 Young men are marketed testosterone from influencers & now government

51:00 Taking outside testosterone shuts down natural production of it

51:45 Taking testosterone has major negative side effects

53:00 Our great military culture is being destroyed by Trump

53:30 The violence from ICE officers has been entirely predictable

54:15 DHS under Trump never deserves the benefit of the doubt

55:15 Officer involved in shooting had massive red flags in his background

56:00 ICE doesn’t appear to have any vetting process for recruits

1:00:00 Wisconsin governor’s race has become a political mess

1:01:00 Tony Evers didn’t build a strong infrastructure around him

1:01:30 Evers didn’t set up an obvious heir in the Democratic party

1:03:00 The party establishment hasn’t responded to all parts of the base

1:03:45 Wisconsin is one of the most misunderstood swing states

1:05:00 Democrats in Wisconsin have to make the political center comfortable

1:07:30 Arizona primary coming up on Tuesday

01:14:00 Daniel Silva joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15:00 Gabriel Allon is ageless

01:16:45 How much do you put yourself into Gabriel Allon?

01:17:30 Gabriel’s character allows Daniel to pursue things he’s interested in

01:19:15 Potentially creating a spin-off series

01:20:30 Vibe of the book series is European art

01:21:15 How did you learn about modern kidnappings and negotiations

01:23:15 Not writing with great visual detail to allow readers to imagine it

01:24:15 We are going to have a major incident triggered by drones

01:25:15 Ukraine has become the drone specialists of the world

01:26:00 Drones will eventually carry out an assassination or mass casualty event

01:27:15 Any trepidation creating a fictional event that could actually happen?

01:28:15 There was an emergency drone incident in Copenhagen

01:28:45 Europeans are already very nervous about impacts of drones

01:29:30 There are cameras everywhere in modern society

01:30:45 The level of criminality & corruption in the world is staggering

01:32:00 The current FBI is no longer the same place

01:32:45 We are jettising allies and destroying our intelligence agencies

01:33:30 If you are the GRU… where would you want an asset to be?

01:34:30 There are different types of intelligence assets

01:35:00 Some of the best assets don’t realize they are assets

01:36:15 Crisis meeting held at NATO headquarters about Trump 

01:39:30 We should be putting the screws to Putin right now, he’s vulnerable

01:40:15 Ukraine has victory in sight, they aren’t desperate for a deal

01:41:00 How do you tackle Israel’s reputation in the world in the books?

01:43:30 The changes to Israel’s reputation were foreseeable

01:44:00 Don’t want to write about the war in Gaza

01:45:00 Is all hope for a two state solution gone?

01:47:45 There’s a “fortress Israel” mindset, they think they can do it alone

01:48:15 Is Gabriel Allon still a zionist?

01:49:00 Israel was founded with tenets of European style socialism

01:50:00 It’s sad seeing Israel becoming so siloed from the world

01:51:30 There’s been a major resurgence of antisemitism

01:53:15 It only takes the right set of circumstances to reignite antisemitism

01:54:30 Giant corporations are becoming as powerful as nation states

01:56:00 The new generation of ultra wealthy don’t believe in philanthropy

01:56:45 AI has the ability to wipe out the knowledge economy

01:58:00 The next great political crisis might be a climate driven natural disaster

01:58:45 The last great El Nino created massive famine, killing millions

01:59:30 The current migration patterns are climate driven

02:00:00 People are dying as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid

02:03:30 Trump has turned the national mall into a mess

02:04:15 The reflecting pool is now “Kermit green”

02:05:30 If you could write your next book about anything, what would it be?

02:06:30 Don’t think he could write non-fiction, too many novels to write

02:08:15 If you use AI to do your writing, then that isn’t writing

02:11:30 Anthropic CEO gave a reasoned answer to AI military applications

02:12:00 Could have an AI version of yourself that lives forever

02:13:15 Do you ever take a rest from writing?

02:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine July 24, 1959  

02:17:00 Nixon and Krushchev host the “Kitchen Debate”  

02:18:00 The countries were showing off their way of life - Capitalism vs Communism  

02:18:45 Soviets set up a display in New York to show off their society  

02:19:30 Khrushchev believed history would belong to the communists  

02:20:00 The answer to the Soviet display was a model of an American home  

02:20:45 The argument was that a middle class worker could afford that home  

02:21:15 America showed it offered equality of opportunity, not outcome  

02:22:00 Krushchev and Nixon debated knowing the world would hear it  

02:23:00 Krushchev didn’t believe Americans actually lived that well  

02:23:30 Nixon argued that competition inspired innovation and growth  

02:25:00 Market capitalism proved to be the more dynamic economic system  

02:25:30 There are echoes of the Kitchen Debate in modern American discourse  

02:27:00 The Soviet Union disappeared, the debate hasn’t  

02:27:15 Ask Chuck  

02:27:30 Is MLB lockout avoidable? The state of baseball card collecting?  

02:38:00 Is Trump’s erosion of norms a form of the incrementalism you champion?  

02:41:30 What rights are D.C. & Puerto Rico residents still missing beside representation?  

02:47:15 What goes into a decision to run for office?  

02:50:45 MAGA just a rework of Reagan’s slogan?  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation turns personal when Chuck asks how Silva handles Israel's collapsing global reputation in a series built around an Israeli intelligence officer. Silva says the shift was entirely foreseeable, that he has no interest in writing about Gaza, and that what saddens him most is the "fortress Israel" mindset — a country founded on European-style socialist ideals now convinced it can go it alone, siloed from the world, while antisemitism surges globally in a way he warns only ever needs the right set of circumstances to reignite. He and Chuck range across the forces reshaping the century: giant corporations approaching the power of nation-states, a new generation of the ultra-wealthy who simply don't believe in philanthropy, AI's capacity to wipe out the knowledge economy, and Silva's conviction that the next great political crisis may be a climate-driven natural disaster — noting that the last major El Niño produced famines that killed millions, that today's migration patterns are already climate-driven, and that people are dying right now as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid. He's unsparing on writing and AI), amused and appalled that Trump has turned the National Mall into a mess with a reflecting pool gone "Kermit green," and closes on the question every prolific novelist gets asked and rarely answers honestly: does he ever actually rest?

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Daniel Silva joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Gabriel Allon is ageless

02:45 How much do you put yourself into Gabriel Allon?

03:30 Gabriel’s character allows Daniel to pursue things he’s interested in

05:15 Potentially creating a spin-off series

06:30 Vibe of the book series is European art

07:15 How did you learn about modern kidnappings and negotiations

09:15 Not writing with great visual detail to allow readers to imagine it

10:15 We are going to have a major incident triggered by drones

11:15 Ukraine has become the drone specialists of the world

12:00 Drones will eventually carry out an assassination or mass casualty event

13:15 Any trepidation creating a fictional event that could actually happen?

14:15 There was an emergency drone incident in Copenhagen

14:45 Europeans are already very nervous about impacts of drones

15:30 There are cameras everywhere in modern society

16:45 The level of criminality & corruption in the world is staggering

18:00 The current FBI is no longer the same place

18:45 We are jettising allies and destroying our intelligence agencies

19:30 If you are the GRU… where would you want an asset to be?

20:30 There are different types of intelligence assets

21:00 Some of the best assets don’t realize they are assets

22:15 Crisis meeting held at NATO headquarters about Trump 

25:30 We should be putting the screws to Putin right now, he’s vulnerable

26:15 Ukraine has victory in sight, they aren’t desperate for a deal

27:00 How do you tackle Israel’s reputation in the world in the books?

29:30 The changes to Israel’s reputation were foreseeable

30:00 Don’t want to write about the war in Gaza

31:00 Is all hope for a two state solution gone?

33:45 There’s a “fortress Israel” mindset, they think they can do it alone

34:15 Is Gabriel Allon still a zionist?

35:00 Israel was founded with tenets of European style socialism

36:00 It’s sad seeing Israel becoming so siloed from the world

37:30 There’s been a major resurgence of antisemitism

39:15 It only takes the right set of circumstances to reignite antisemitism

40:30 Giant corporations are becoming as powerful as nation states

42:00 The new generation of ultra wealthy don’t believe in philanthropy

42:45 AI has the ability to wipe out the knowledge economy

44:00 The next great political crisis might be a climate driven natural disaster

44:45 The last great El Nino created massive famine, killing millions

45:30 The current migration patterns are climate driven

46:00 People are dying as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid

49:30 Trump has turned the national mall into a mess

50:15 The reflecting pool is now “Kermit green”

51:30 If you could write your next book about anything, what would it be?

52:30 Don’t think he could write non-fiction, too many novels to write

54:15 If you use AI to do your writing, then that isn’t writing

57:30 Anthropic CEO gave a reasoned answer to AI military applications

58:00 Could have an AI version of yourself that lives forever

59:15 Do you ever take a rest from writing?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

He then turns to the mounting deaths during ICE encounters, arguing the violence isn't an anomaly but an entirely predictable consequence of an agency whose culture has been deliberately reshaped: DHS recruited candidates with violent psychological profiles using white nationalist slogans, imposed quotas that put officers under enormous stress, and pushed them into vehicle stops that former officials admit ICE has no experience conducting. In two fatal shootings the men killed weren't even the targets, witnesses have disputed the DHS account, there's no body cam footage, and Chuck argues DHS has zero credibility, even as Trump clearly wants the theater and the violent confrontations. On Iran, Chuck is blunt that having less leverage than before the war started is simply what losing a war looks like: the administration badly underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran deliberately decentralized its regime to survive decapitation strikes, and after three failed military strategies in five months, Trump has spent the entire war negotiating against himself — meaning the best America can now hope for is a managed stalemate, because Iran can't beat the U.S. military, it just has to wait out an increasingly impatient Trump. He closes on a lighter note with the House passing a bill to make daylight saving time permanent, offering the contrarian reminder that the public always wants permanent DST until they actually get it — kids forced to go to school in pitch darkness, and the simple reality that what's good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of professional athletes best positioned to run for political office and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

From the opening whistle to the final kick. Bet on a match and get bonus bets for every goal scored at Fanduel.com 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

• For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership
  
  Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump planning primetime address to push election denialism

04:15 Todd Blanche should have no place in the Department of Justice

05:00 Blanche failed the test when questioned by John Cornyn

05:30 Weaponization fund could be the red line for Collins, Tillis and Cornyn

07:00 Inability to confirm Blanche would show Trump’s weakening grip on GOP

08:15 John Ossoff asked simple question Jay Clayton wouldn’t answer

09:00 Clayton refused to answer “who won the 2020 election?”

09:30 You must agree with election denialism to work for Trump

10:30 Clayton looked like a ridiculous sycophant

12:00 Administration convinced deportations will help in midterms

12:30 Trump is completely misreading the situation, but nobody will tell him

13:15 Trump gives his endorsement to Mike Lindell from MyPillow

13:45 Trump supporting biggest election conspiracy theorist in the country*

14:30 Lindell was forced to pay $5 million due to his false claims

15:15 Lindell has lost every time his claims ended up in court

15:45 Lindell is a lunatic

16:45 The only constant for Trump is “it’s fraud” if he doesn’t get his way

17:30 It was Trump appointees who ran election security in 2020

18:15 The election fraud claims from Trumpworld kept changing 

19:15 Guliani was forced to refute his election denial in court

20:00 Every election denier has had to retract in a court of law

21:15 Georgia conducted a full recount and it matched the machines

23:00 Multiple deaths have occurred during encounters with ICE

24:00 In the two shootings the men killed were not the targets of the operation

24:45 Witnesses have challenged DHS account & there’s no body cam footage

25:15 DHS has no credibility, can’t trust their account of events

26:00 ICE announced they have paused most vehicle stops nationwide

28:00 Trump wants the theater with ICE, he wants violent confrontations*

29:30 The violence isn’t an anomaly, it’s entirely predictable

30:00 DHS’s recruiting for ICE has changed the culture of the organization

31:00 ICE targeted candidates with a violent psychological profile

32:15 ICE used white nationalist slogans in recruitment ads

34:00 The culture of ICE promotes violent confrontation

34:45 Administration’s quotas has put officers under stress

36:45 Former ICE officials admit the agency doesn’t have experience for vehicle stops

37:30 Tragedy isn’t a risk under these circumstances… it’s a guarantee

38:15 Federal law enforcement has turned into a theater of dominance

39:00 ICE set itself up for a war… and we’re seeing the consequences

39:45 Iran has more leverage than before the war… that’s called losing

40:15 Houthis may close another chokepoint

41:15 The U.S. military always knew the Strait of Hormuz was the ballgame

41:45 Administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait

42:30 Iran set up the regime to be decentralized in case of decapitation strikes

43:15 We’ve tried 3 major military strategies in 5 months & none worked

44:30 Trump has negotiated against himself for the entire war

46:00 This has now become a fight over leverage

47:00 Every week the war grinds on, the more unpopular it becomes

47:30 Iran can’t beat the U.S. military, they just need to wait out Trump

48:15 The best we can hope for is a managed stalemate

48:45 House passed a bill to make daylight savings time permanent

49:45 The public always wants permanent daylight savings, until they get it

50:15 Kids are forced to get to school in the dark, results in deaths

51:30 What’s good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning

57:00 ToddCast Top 5 American athletes that could transition to politics

1:01:00 #5 Travis Kelce

1:02:15 #4 Paul Skenes 

1:03:15 #3 Patrick Mahomes

1:04:00 #2 Steph Curry

1:05:00 #1 Caitlin Clark

1:08:15 Ask Chuck

1:08:30 Favorite old 40s and 50s films?

1:14:45 Your work made a real difference in my life

1:16:15 Are there any states where a congressperson could do what Farage did in UK?

1:19:45 Why don’t presidential campaigns create buzz around VP selection?

1:24:15 What signs would show us we’re turning the corner on this divisive era?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

He then turns to the mounting deaths during ICE encounters, arguing the violence isn't an anomaly but an entirely predictable consequence of an agency whose culture has been deliberately reshaped: DHS recruited candidates with violent psychological profiles using white nationalist slogans, imposed quotas that put officers under enormous stress, and pushed them into vehicle stops that former officials admit ICE has no experience conducting. In two fatal shootings the men killed weren't even the targets, witnesses have disputed the DHS account, there's no body cam footage, and Chuck argues DHS has zero credibility, even as Trump clearly wants the theater and the violent confrontations. On Iran, Chuck is blunt that having less leverage than before the war started is simply what losing a war looks like: the administration badly underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran deliberately decentralized its regime to survive decapitation strikes, and after three failed military strategies in five months, Trump has spent the entire war negotiating against himself — meaning the best America can now hope for is a managed stalemate, because Iran can't beat the U.S. military, it just has to wait out an increasingly impatient Trump. He closes on a lighter note with the House passing a bill to make daylight saving time permanent, offering the contrarian reminder that the public always wants permanent DST until they actually get it — kids forced to go to school in pitch darkness, and the simple reality that what's good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning. 

Then, John Opdycke — founder and president of Open Primaries, one of the leading organizations pushing to end closed partisan primaries — joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that the exclusion of independent voters is one of the great overlooked scandals of American democracy. Opdycke walks through the byzantine patchwork of voter and party registration rules that vary wildly by state, explains why so many independents sit out partisan primaries entirely, and argues that after 30 years of closed primaries the cumulative effect has been a system where the parties function as both the umpires and the players — a structure that simply doesn't work. He makes the bipartisan argument that tax dollars shouldn't fund the private nominating contests of what are essentially private organizations, and is pointedly critical of Democrats for actively fighting open primary initiatives.He notes that policies with 80% public support routinely fail to pass because voters don't actually have a meaningful say.

The conversation turns tactical and forward-looking, with Opdycke offering a sober assessment of the broader reform landscape and its persistent failures. He argues the ranked-choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors, that the party in power always fights ranked choice voting, and that the modern reform and independent movement suffers from a fundamental lack of a compelling public face — as well as from philanthropic funders who attach outcome expectations that distort the work. Opdycke is candid that third parties fare poorly in nearly every electoral system, that Ross Perot's Reform Party is now essentially a shell, and that the American people still don't trust the reform movement — but he sees real opportunity in specific fights, particularly mobilizing Florida's independents to change the law and pursuing top-two systems that would genuinely open the door to competition. He notes the striking statistic that 10,000 people per week are changing their voter registration, laments the general lack of curiosity (and polling) about who swing voters actually are, and argues there's meaningful left-right overlap among libertarians that reformers could tap. They explore whether the redistricting wars could create a backlash against the two-party system, why there are only about 25 competitive House districts left, and why several states are now actually moving back toward closed primaries. They close with a clear-eyed take on 2028: the reform movement needs a credible presidential candidate, and with 2028 shaping up to be a wild and unpredictable year, the opening for that kind of disruption may be wider than it's been in decades.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of professional athletes best positioned to run for political office and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

From the opening whistle to the final kick. Bet on a match and get bonus bets for every goal scored at Fanduel.com 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

• For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership
  
  Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump planning primetime address to push election denialism

04:15 Todd Blanche should have no place in the Department of Justice

05:00 Blanche failed the test when questioned by John Cornyn

05:30 Weaponization fund could be the red line for Collins, Tillis and Cornyn

07:00 Inability to confirm Blanche would show Trump’s weakening grip on GOP

08:15 John Ossoff asked simple question Jay Clayton wouldn’t answer

09:00 Clayton refused to answer “who won the 2020 election?”

09:30 You must agree with election denialism to work for Trump

10:30 Clayton looked like a ridiculous sycophant

12:00 Administration convinced deportations will help in midterms

12:30 Trump is completely misreading the situation, but nobody will tell him

13:15 Trump gives his endorsement to Mike Lindell from MyPillow

13:45 Trump supporting biggest election conspiracy theorist in the country*

14:30 Lindell was forced to pay $5 million due to his false claims

15:15 Lindell has lost every time his claims ended up in court

15:45 Lindell is a lunatic

16:45 The only constant for Trump is “it’s fraud” if he doesn’t get his way

17:30 It was Trump appointees who ran election security in 2020

18:15 The election fraud claims from Trumpworld kept changing 

19:15 Guliani was forced to refute his election denial in court

20:00 Every election denier has had to retract in a court of law

21:15 Georgia conducted a full recount and it matched the machines

23:00 Multiple deaths have occurred during encounters with ICE

24:00 In the two shootings the men killed were not the targets of the operation

24:45 Witnesses have challenged DHS account & there’s no body cam footage

25:15 DHS has no credibility, can’t trust their account of events

26:00 ICE announced they have paused most vehicle stops nationwide

28:00 Trump wants the theater with ICE, he wants violent confrontations*

29:30 The violence isn’t an anomaly, it’s entirely predictable

30:00 DHS’s recruiting for ICE has changed the culture of the organization

31:00 ICE targeted candidates with a violent psychological profile

32:15 ICE used white nationalist slogans in recruitment ads

34:00 The culture of ICE promotes violent confrontation

34:45 Administration’s quotas has put officers under stress

36:45 Former ICE officials admit the agency doesn’t have experience for vehicle stops

37:30 Tragedy isn’t a risk under these circumstances… it’s a guarantee

38:15 Federal law enforcement has turned into a theater of dominance

39:00 ICE set itself up for a war… and we’re seeing the consequences

39:45 Iran has more leverage than before the war… that’s called losing

40:15 Houthis may close another chokepoint

41:15 The U.S. military always knew the Strait of Hormuz was the ballgame

41:45 Administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait

42:30 Iran set up the regime to be decentralized in case of decapitation strikes

43:15 We’ve tried 3 major military strategies in 5 months & none worked

44:30 Trump has negotiated against himself for the entire war

46:00 This has now become a fight over leverage

47:00 Every week the war grinds on, the more unpopular it becomes

47:30 Iran can’t beat the U.S. military, they just need to wait out Trump

48:15 The best we can hope for is a managed stalemate

48:45 House passed a bill to make daylight savings time permanent

49:45 The public always wants permanent daylight savings, until they get it

50:15 Kids are forced to get to school in the dark, results in deaths

51:30 What’s good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning

00:00 John Opdycke joins the Chuck ToddCast

59:45 Voter & party registration rules vary greatly by state

1:01:00 Why do so many independents sit out partisan primaries?

1:03:30 NYC Democratic party actively fought open primary initiative

1:05:00 There have been cumulative effects of 30 years of closed primaries

1:06:15 Voter apathy across the board for voting in primaries

1:07:00 Independents showing strong support for Open Primaries

1:08:45 Parties have every right to choose their candidates

1:09:15 Parties now are both the umpires and the players, it doesn’t work

1:11:00 There’s bipartisan arguments for not using tax dollars for private orgs

1:12:15 Why are Democrats fighting against open primaries?

1:14:15 Ross Perot’s Reform Party is basically a shell at this point

1:17:00 Independent voters are incorrectly understood as in the middle

1:17:30 Independents are moderate in temperament, not ideology

1:19:15 Politics post-Clinton/Gingrich designed to keep independents down

1:20:15 The modern reform/independent movement lacks a face

1:21:15 Philanthropic funders come with expectations of outcomes

1:22:15 Ranked choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors

1:24:30 Party in power always fights ranked choice voting

1:26:00 Exclusion of independent voters is a Jim Crow level violation of rights

1:26:30 Policies with 80% support don’t pass, voters don’t have a say

1:28:00 Third parties don’t do well in almost any electoral system

1:29:15 Swing voters are ignored until October

1:29:45 Which states offer best opportunities for a third party?

1:30:30 Independents require the Democrat to drop out in senate races

1:34:00 Could the redistricting wars create backlash to the two party system?

1:34:45 There’s only 25 competitive house district

1:35:30 Leaders in several states now looking to go back to closed primaries

1:36:45 The American people don’t trust the Reform movement

1:38:45 Mobilizing independents in Florida to change the law

1:41:15 There’s left-right overlap amongst the libertarians

1:42:45 There’s a lack of curiosity about independent/swing voters

1:44:45 10,000 people per week change their voter registration

1:45:30 We need a flood of polling and research about independent voters

1:46:45 What does success look like for Open Primaries this year?

1:49:45 A top two system would open up the door to competition

1:51:15 There are fewer “generic” candidates, much more variance

1:53:45 The Reform movement needs a presidential candidate in ‘28

1:57:30 Perot had to scare both parties to get them to make reforms

1:59:00 Have to creative in ‘28, it will be a wild year in politics

2:00:00 Primaries should be open to all voters

2:00:15 ToddCast Top 5 American athletes that could transition to politics

2:04:15 #5 Travis Kelce

2:05:30 #4 Paul Skenes 

2:06:30 #3 Patrick Mahomes

2:07:15 #2 Steph Curry

2:08:15 #1 Caitlin Clark

2:11:30 Ask Chuck

2:11:45 Favorite old 40s and 50s films?

2:18:00 Your work made a real difference in my life

2:19:30 Are there any states where a congressperson could do what Farage did in UK?

2:23:00 Why don’t presidential campaigns create buzz around VP selection?

2:27:30 What signs would show us we’re turning the corner on this divisive era?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conversation turns tactical and forward-looking, with Opdycke offering a sober assessment of the broader reform landscape and its persistent failures. He argues the ranked-choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors, that the party in power always fights ranked choice voting, and that the modern reform and independent movement suffers from a fundamental lack of a compelling public face — as well as from philanthropic funders who attach outcome expectations that distort the work. Opdycke is candid that third parties fare poorly in nearly every electoral system, that Ross Perot's Reform Party is now essentially a shell, and that the American people still don't trust the reform movement — but he sees real opportunity in specific fights, particularly mobilizing Florida's independents to change the law and pursuing top-two systems that would genuinely open the door to competition. He notes the striking statistic that 10,000 people per week are changing their voter registration, laments the general lack of curiosity (and polling) about who swing voters actually are, and argues there's meaningful left-right overlap among libertarians that reformers could tap. They explore whether the redistricting wars could create a backlash against the two-party system, why there are only about 25 competitive House districts left, and why several states are now actually moving back toward closed primaries. They close with a clear-eyed take on 2028: the reform movement needs a credible presidential candidate, and with 2028 shaping up to be a wild and unpredictable year, the opening for that kind of disruption may be wider than it's been in decades.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Opdycke joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:45 Voter & party registration rules vary greatly by state

03:00 Why do so many independents sit out partisan primaries?

05:30 NYC Democratic party actively fought open primary initiative

07:00 There have been cumulative effects of 30 years of closed primaries

08:15 Voter apathy across the board for voting in primaries

09:00 Independents showing strong support for Open Primaries

10:45 Parties have every right to choose their candidates

11:15 Parties now are both the umpires and the players, it doesn’t work

13:00 There’s bipartisan arguments for not using tax dollars for private orgs

14:15 Why are Democrats fighting against open primaries?

16:15 Ross Perot’s Reform Party is basically a shell at this point

19:00 Independent voters are incorrectly understood as in the middle

19:30 Independents are moderate in temperament, not ideology

21:15 Politics post-Clinton/Gingrich designed to keep independents down

22:15 The modern reform/independent movement lacks a face

23:15 Philanthropic funders come with expectations of outcomes

24:15 Ranked choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors

26:30 Party in power always fights ranked choice voting

28:00 Exclusion of independent voters is a Jim Crow level violation of rights

28:30 Policies with 80% support don’t pass, voters don’t have a say

30:00 Third parties don’t do well in almost any electoral system

31:15 Swing voters are ignored until October

31:45 Which states offer best opportunities for a third party?

32:30 Independents require the Democrat to drop out in senate races

36:00 Could the redistricting wars create backlash to the two party system?

36:45 There’s only 25 competitive house district

37:30 Leaders in several states now looking to go back to closed primaries

38:45 The American people don’t trust the Reform movement

40:45 Mobilizing independents in Florida to change the law

43:15 There’s left-right overlap amongst the libertarians

44:45 There’s a lack of curiosity about independent/swing voters

46:45 10,000 people per week change their voter registration

47:30 We need a flood of polling and research about independent voters

48:45 What does success look like for Open Primaries this year?

51:45 A top two system would open up the door to competition

53:15 There are fewer “generic” candidates, much more variance

55:45 The Reform movement needs a presidential candidate in ‘28

59:30 Perot had to scare both parties to get them to make reforms

1:01:00 Have to creative in ‘28, it will be a wild year in politics

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From there it's on to two health stories the news cycle nearly buried — the mystery around Mitch McConnell's fall, pneumonia and rehab stay, and Trump's latest Walter Reed cognitive test — before a deep dive into Maine, where Susan Collins suddenly has no opponent after Graham Platner's exit and seven Democrats will fight it out at a 600-person nominating convention. Chuck and Chris debate whether Collins is now more or less vulnerable, take a spirited detour through New England blue bloods and Platner's "oyster farmer" branding, and skewer the knives-out world of political consultants. Then they close personal and sporty: their National Journal origin story, and a nerdy back-and-forth on the reinvented Home Run Derby, All-Star nostalgia, a World Baseball Classic pitch, and the Nats' latest heartbreak.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays 

01:29 Lindsey Graham dies Saturday night of an aortic rupture

02:01 When death hits mid-campaign, everything accelerates 

03:59 The "humans vs. aliens" acting analogy, applied to politicians

04:43 Ideologues vs. politicians — and why Graham was the latter

05:42 Democratic senators genuinely liked working with Graham

06:21 The real story: the gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center

11:33 Graham would've been a Democrat if he'd grown up in Oregon

14:26 Near-term fallout — Graham was Thune & Trump's whisperer

14:59 Why Todd Blanche's confirmation just got harder

16:14 Zelensky lost his best Trump whisperer, too

17:30 Republicans have functionally lost control of the Senate

19:37 An open South Carolina Senate seat comes once a generation

22:09 South Carolina's factional GOP sets up a free-for-all

24:43 A full six-year term raises the stakes 

29:06 Could Trey Gowdy be the compromise candidate?

31:02 What is going on with Mitch McConnell?

35:45 The buried health story: Trump's new Walter Reed cognitive test

36:36 Should cognitive tests be mandatory for presidents over 75?

38:26 On Graham, Trump can only make it about himself

39:32 The Butler anniversary crowd-size claim

40:32 To Maine: Collins is the most vulnerable Republican 

41:02 Handicapping the seven-Democrat nominating convention

45:07 Is Susan Collins more or less vulnerable than a month ago?

47:13 Why the right Democratic nominee could actually beat her

51:15 Platner's privilege & the "oyster farmer" brand

51:39 The knives-out world of nepo-baby campaign consultants

51:56 Chuck & Chris's National Journal origin story

54:35 Why "he's a farmer, not a politician" branding is hypnotic nonsense

56:20 To sports: the reinvented, 20-swing Home Run Derby

56:41 The Nats blow three leads 

58:04 Empty-nesting & the streaming shows worth your night

59:42 All-Star nostalgia in the age of the MLB app and interleague play

1:02:42 A pitch for a two-week WBC break every July

1:04:25 The Futures Game & Nats prospect Eli Willits

1:05:06 Wrap-up: subscribe to Super Tuesdays

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to break down the messy build up and coalitions involved in the Spanish civil war, and what lessons modern America can take from it. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and make a proposal for a change to the baseball Hall of Fame.

From the opening whistle to the final kick. Bet on a match and get bonus bets for every goal scored at Fanduel.com 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:15 Senator Lindsey Graham dead at 71

04:45 Reactions to Graham are filtered through one’s personal politics

05:30 There are ideologues and there are politicians. Graham was the latter

06:45 Graham always wanted to be in the middle of the Republican party

09:00 Graham’s senate seat was as important to him as a spouse

11:15 Certain people are just political creatures, like Graham and Cruz

12:45 Graham was able to work with everyone on both sides of the aisle

13:30 Graham worked with both Trump and Obama

15:30 Conspiracy theories are swirling about Graham’s death

16:15 There needs to be a thorough autopsy to put conspiracies to rest

17:30 Chuck interviewed Graham & McCain, they mentioned the Steele Dossier

18:15 Graham and McCain gave the most attention to the Dossier

20:30 Graham’s parents died in his 20s, he raised his 13 year old sister

22:30 Chuck had Graham as a dark horse candidate for 2008

23:15 Graham was aware of the rumors and never addressed them directly

24:30 The real world impact on politics from Graham’s passing 

25:00 Todd Blanche’s confirmation is now in serious jeopardy

25:30 Graham leaves a massive vacuum in the GOP conference

28:00 Graham kept Trump from fully going down the fascist road

29:15 Unlike Trump, Graham sees Putin as a threat & backed Ukraine

31:15 Impact on the South Carolina elections

32:00 There will be lots of Republicans looking to jump into the primary

33:15 If primary goes super right-wing, Democrat Annie Andrews has a shot

35:15 Graham reassured Chuck’s wife after expressing worries about Trump

37:45 Graham knew if he had gone hard on Trump, he’d lose his senate seat

38:45 There are parallels between U.S. and U.K politics

39:45 Labour came back into power promising competence and stability

40:45 Nigel Farage, like Trump… is trying to turn political fame into wealth

42:30 “Count Binface” has been challenging Farage as a satirical candidate

43:30 The man who made UK politics theatrical, now facing a theatrical challenge

44:00 The U.S. could really use a “Count Binface” to hold up a mirror

45:15 What if we accepted the premise of politics as entertainment?

46:00 Should we host a political reality show on an island

47:15 Governing experience has become a liability in American politics

48:00 Media rewards performance more than competency 

50:15 There is going to be a retreat in the American-Israeli partnership

50:45  20 years ago we were very close to peace & two state solution

52:45 When moderation & compromise fail, radicalism takes its place

54:00 There was a serious chance for peace two decades ago

54:30 After both sides walked away, the radicalism escalated

56:15 The extremes can now argue the other side doesn’t want peace

57:00 Rahm Emmanuel travels to Israel to give speech

58:00 Rahm says Israel must provide vision for what comes after war

59:15 Rahm warns Israel risks isolating itself from younger & moderate Americans

1:00:45 Rahm sounds like someone trying to save the political center

1:02:00 Moderation disappears when it feels like moderates don’t have answers

01:12:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 17th, 1936  

01:12:30 Start of the Spanish civil war  

01:13:15 Why does Spain’s civil war stand out in history?  

01:14:30 The war wasn’t simply a fight between left and right  

01:15:00 1930s Spain had every divide imaginable  

01:16:00 Political violence became common, political center got smaller  

01:16:45 The left wing coalition that won was barely united at all  

01:17:45 Military units in Morocco revolted, then coup spread to Spain  

01:18:30 Franco eventually united a fascist coalition with military command  

01:19:15 The left’s internal divisions became one of Franco’s advantages  

01:20:30 Civilians became part of the battlefield and were targeted  

01:22:00 George Orwell’s writing came directly from his experiences in Spain  

01:23:15 The fascist wing won the war and Franco ruled until 1975  

01:24:00 Pluralism only emerged after decades of authoritarian rule  

01:25:30 The transition out of authoritarianism came from exhaustion, not agreement  

01:27:00 Sharing power with opponents is preferable to violence  

01:28:15 Book recommendations for learning more about the Spanish civil war  

01:29:15 Ask Chuck  

01:29:30 How can we get back to lasting governance and progress?  

01:35:00 Could Trump run as VP or speaker then ascend back to the presidency?  

01:38:15 Why do prominent political interviews not have aggressive follow ups?  

01:44:45 Who was the best pitcher of this generation that’s retiring? 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Then, John Morgan — founder of Morgan & Morgan, one of the largest personal injury firms in the country & author of "Life is Luck: Lessons From a Paperboy and How to Improve Your Luck"  joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about civil litigation, the failures of government regulation, and his plan to launch a third party in Florida. Morgan makes the case that civil litigation has grown precisely because government has failed to regulate — social media is a genuine threat to human wellbeing (especially for children), monopolies are squeezing consumers, and processed foods, he argues, are the new tobacco: extremely harmful and ripe for legal reckoning. He offers a candid, colorful assessment of his former firm member RFK Jr. — "smart and crazy," a man who falls down some rabbit holes but also champions legitimate causes — and walks through the thorny reality that vaccine makers enjoy total indemnity while sovereign immunity exists in some form in all 50 states. Morgan is refreshingly honest about the ethics of his own industry, arguing that ads gloating about settlement numbers are a mistake because the real goal of a settlement is to give someone back something they lost, not to celebrate a payday.

The heart of the conversation is Morgan's plan to launch a new third party in Florida called "Common Ground," rooted in his conviction that the two-party system itself is what's fundamentally broken in America. Morgan argues that moderates should function as the tiebreakers in a polarized system — that picking up just a few seats could turn an uncommitted moderate bloc into a genuine fulcrum of power in Congress — and explains why he'd rather build something new than partner with the existing Forward Party. He handicaps Florida's political landscape with an insider's candor: Byron Donalds likely wins the governorship but it'll be close, the Charlie Crist party-switch playbook never worked, and he's genuinely unsure whether voters can find David Jolly credible after his own party change.. Morgan laments that too many people now enter politics for the pension and salary rather than public service, criticizes DeSantis for appointing cronies as university presidents, and argues age limits are overdue because government should be about the future and very few politicians remain effective past 70. Along the way he explains why he thinks Texas Democrats fielded a more viable ticket than Florida's (James Talarico, he says, simply has "it"), why Andy Beshear won in Kentucky, why charter schools are about money rather than choice, and why DeSantis's property tax proposal could become a Brexit-style case study in voters making decisions that make no sense once the consequences arrive.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to break down the messy build up and coalitions involved in the Spanish civil war, and what lessons modern America can take from it. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and make a proposal for a change to the baseball Hall of Fame.

Get John Morgan's book here:

https://www.amazon.com/Audible-Life-is-Luck/dp/B0H2K52H4G/ref=sr_1_1?crid=LF7S7OGAT46F&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.CaRKVB4mHJGTS0bVFd7ONcU6YfsmpGl_tDncLiWRzCNecvHPOVtdrMbXsFl_LNyLxyW8nLRxXL3j5wdKGrHq7hSKazupgR14cC3u74xjkQpTUw2_xdJsVkC21K2kobaEZpdGZJsOkB5HdKgNBvyzjcb0eh8sdqhprrTbUo_1Fss.iLY1CiUpIpHB0Z1TbM0GJH2COy5EqaDcd3D_ItY0mfg&dib_tag=se&keywords=John+Morgan+life+is+luck&qid=1784135091&s=books&sprefix=john+morgan+life+is+luck%2Cstripbooks%2C177&sr=1-1

From the opening whistle to the final kick. Bet on a match and get bonus bets for every goal scored at Fanduel.com 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:15 Senator Lindsey Graham dead at 71

04:45 Reactions to Graham are filtered through one’s personal politics

05:30 There are ideologues and there are politicians. Graham was the latter

06:45 Graham always wanted to be in the middle of the Republican party

09:00 Graham’s senate seat was as important to him as a spouse

11:15 Certain people are just political creatures, like Graham and Cruz

12:45 Graham was able to work with everyone on both sides of the aisle

13:30 Graham worked with both Trump and Obama

15:30 Conspiracy theories are swirling about Graham’s death

16:15 There needs to be a thorough autopsy to put conspiracies to rest

17:30 Chuck interviewed Graham & McCain, they mentioned the Steele Dossier

18:15 Graham and McCain gave the most attention to the Dossier

20:30 Graham’s parents died in his 20s, he raised his 13 year old sister

22:30 Chuck had Graham as a dark horse candidate for 2008

23:15 Graham was aware of the rumors and never addressed them directly

24:30 The real world impact on politics from Graham’s passing 

25:00 Todd Blanche’s confirmation is now in serious jeopardy

25:30 Graham leaves a massive vacuum in the GOP conference

28:00 Graham kept Trump from fully going down the fascist road

29:15 Unlike Trump, Graham sees Putin as a threat & backed Ukraine

31:15 Impact on the South Carolina elections

32:00 There will be lots of Republicans looking to jump into the primary

33:15 If primary goes super right-wing, Democrat Annie Andrews has a shot

35:15 Graham reassured Chuck’s wife after expressing worries about Trump

37:45 Graham knew if he had gone hard on Trump, he’d lose his senate seat

38:45 There are parallels between U.S. and U.K politics

39:45 Labour came back into power promising competence and stability

40:45 Nigel Farage, like Trump… is trying to turn political fame into wealth

42:30 “Count Binface” has been challenging Farage as a satirical candidate

43:30 The man who made UK politics theatrical, now facing a theatrical challenge

44:00 The U.S. could really use a “Count Binface” to hold up a mirror

45:15 What if we accepted the premise of politics as entertainment?

46:00 Should we host a political reality show on an island

47:15 Governing experience has become a liability in American politics

48:00 Media rewards performance more than competency 

50:15 There is going to be a retreat in the American-Israeli partnership

50:45  20 years ago we were very close to peace & two state solution

52:45 When moderation & compromise fail, radicalism takes its place

54:00 There was a serious chance for peace two decades ago

54:30 After both sides walked away, the radicalism escalated

56:15 The extremes can now argue the other side doesn’t want peace

57:00 Rahm Emmanuel travels to Israel to give speech

58:00 Rahm says Israel must provide vision for what comes after war

59:15 Rahm warns Israel risks isolating itself from younger & moderate Americans

1:00:45 Rahm sounds like someone trying to save the political center

1:02:00 Moderation disappears when it feels like moderates don’t have answers

01:12:30 John Morgan joins the Chuck ToddCast  

01:13:15 What is most difficult about nationalizing a law firm?  

01:14:15 When screening for good lawyers, it’s obvious who stands out  

01:15:30 Lawsuits always seem frivolous until it happens to you  

01:16:15 Ads that gloat about settlement numbers are a mistake  

01:17:00 The goal of settlements is to give back something that was lost  

01:18:15 Thoughts on private equity using civil litigation to hedge?  

01:18:45 Involvement in cases against big tech companies  

01:19:15 Social media is a threat to human wellbeing, especially children  

01:21:00 Civil litigation has grown as government has failed to regulate  

01:22:30 Monopolies are squeezing consumers  

01:23:00 Processed foods are like tobacco, extremely harmful  

01:23:30 RFK Jr. was a member of the firm, he’s smart and crazy  

01:24:45 RFK falls down some BS rabbit holes but also has good causes  

01:25:15 Vaccine makers have total indemnity  

01:26:00 Sovereign immunity exists in some fashion in all 50 states  

01:26:30 What’s your process for vetting science?  

01:28:00 Will be launching a third party in Florida - The Common Ground  

01:30:00 Other wealthy people have considered starting third parties  

01:32:30 The two party system is what is broken in the country  

01:33:00 Why not partner with the Forward Party?  

01:34:30 Moderates should be the tiebreakers  

01:36:00 A few uncommitted moderates could be a swing vote in congress  

01:36:45 All you need to do is pick up a few seats to act as a fulcrum  

01:38:15 It’s likely that Donalds wins in Florida, but it will be close  

01:39:00 Why didn’t the Charlie Crist move work for Florida Democrats?  

01:40:15 Can voters find David Jolly credible after changing parties?  

01:42:00 More people are getting into politics for a pension & salary  

01:43:00 People are going into politics for the wrong reasons  

01:44:15 DeSantis appointed his cronies to be university presidents  

01:45:00 Still deciding on whether to support Donalds or Jolly  

01:46:30 Vindman doesn’t have a chance at winning  

01:47:30 Texas Dem ticket is more liberal, why is it more viable than Florida’s?  

01:48:15 James Talarico is very formidable, he has “it”  

01:50:30 Andy Beshear won because Bevin turned on public school teachers  

01:51:15 Charter schools aren’t about choice, they’re about money  

01:52:00 Parental involvement is the best indicator of school performance  

01:53:15 How would you message against DeSantis’s property tax proposal?  

01:54:15 Americans are less interested in “us” and more interested in “me”  

01:54:45 Implementing the property tax proposal will be like Brexit  

01:57:00 Voters can make decisions that make no sense  

01:57:45 Had the itch to run for office, but unlikely to do it  

01:58:15 Government is for the future, should be age limits for elected officials  

01:59:30 Very few elder politicians remain effective past 70 years old  

02:02:30 Thoughts on the interview with John Morgan  

02:03:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 17th, 1936  

02:03:30 Start of the Spanish civil war  

02:04:15 Why does Spain’s civil war stand out in history?  

02:05:30 The war wasn’t simply a fight between left and right  

02:06:00 1930s Spain had every divide imaginable  

02:07:00 Political violence became common, political center got smaller  

02:07:45 The left wing coalition that won was barely united at all  

02:08:45 Military units in Morocco revolted, then coup spread to Spain  

02:09:30 Franco eventually united a fascist coalition with military command  

02:10:15 The left’s internal divisions became one of Franco’s advantages  

02:11:30 Civilians became part of the battlefield and were targeted  

02:13:00 George Orwell’s writing came directly from his experiences in Spain  

02:14:15 The fascist wing won the war and Franco ruled until 1975  

02:15:00 Pluralism only emerged after decades of authoritarian rule  

02:16:30 The transition out of authoritarianism came from exhaustion, not agreement  

02:18:00 Sharing power with opponents is preferable to violence  

02:19:15 Book recommendations for learning more about the Spanish civil war  

02:20:15 Ask Chuck  

02:20:30 How can we get back to lasting governance and progress?  

02:26:00 Could Trump run as VP or speaker then ascend back to the presidency?  

02:29:15 Why do prominent political interviews not have aggressive follow ups?  

02:35:45 Who was the best pitcher of this generation that’s retiring? 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The heart of the conversation is Morgan's plan to launch a new third party in Florida called "Common Ground," rooted in his conviction that the two-party system itself is what's fundamentally broken in America. Morgan argues that moderates should function as the tiebreakers in a polarized system — that picking up just a few seats could turn an uncommitted moderate bloc into a genuine fulcrum of power in Congress — and explains why he'd rather build something new than partner with the existing Forward Party. He handicaps Florida's political landscape with an insider's candor: Byron Donalds likely wins the governorship but it'll be close, the Charlie Crist party-switch playbook never worked, and he's genuinely unsure whether voters can find David Jolly credible after his own party change.. Morgan laments that too many people now enter politics for the pension and salary rather than public service, criticizes DeSantis for appointing cronies as university presidents, and argues age limits are overdue because government should be about the future and very few politicians remain effective past 70. Along the way he explains why he thinks Texas Democrats fielded a more viable ticket than Florida's (James Talarico, he says, simply has "it"), why Andy Beshear won in Kentucky, why charter schools are about money rather than choice, and why DeSantis's property tax proposal could become a Brexit-style case study in voters making decisions that make no sense once the consequences arrive.

Get John's book here

https://www.amazon.com/Audible-Life-is-Luck/dp/B0H2K52H4G/ref=sr_1_1?crid=LF7S7OGAT46F&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.CaRKVB4mHJGTS0bVFd7ONcU6YfsmpGl_tDncLiWRzCNecvHPOVtdrMbXsFl_LNyLxyW8nLRxXL3j5wdKGrHq7hSKazupgR14cC3u74xjkQpTUw2_xdJsVkC21K2kobaEZpdGZJsOkB5HdKgNBvyzjcb0eh8sdqhprrTbUo_1Fss.iLY1CiUpIpHB0Z1TbM0GJH2COy5EqaDcd3D_ItY0mfg&dib_tag=se&keywords=John+Morgan+life+is+luck&qid=1784135091&s=books&sprefix=john+morgan+life+is+luck%2Cstripbooks%2C177&sr=1-1

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

00:00 John Morgan joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:45 What is most difficult about nationalizing a law firm?

01:45 When screening for good lawyers, it’s obvious who stands out

03:00 Lawsuits always seem frivolous until it happens to you

03:45 Ads that gloat about settlement numbers are a mistake

04:15 The goal of settlements is to give back something that was lost

05:00 Thoughts on private equity using civil litigation to hedge?

06:15 Involvement in cases against big tech companies

06:45 Social media is a threat to human wellbeing, especially children

08:30 Civil litigation has grown as government has failed to regulate

10:00 Monopolies are squeezing consumers

10:30 Processed foods are like tobacco, extremely harmful

11:00 RFK Jr. was a member of the firm, he’s smart and crazy

12:15 RFK falls down some BS rabbit holes but also has good causes

12:45 Vaccine makers have total indemnity

13:30 Sovereign immunity exists in some fashion in all 50 states

14:00 What’s your process for vetting science?

15:30 Will be launching a third party in Florida - The Common Ground

17:30 Other wealthy people have considered starting third parties 

20:00 The two party system is what is broken in the country

20:30 Why not partner with the Forward Party?

22:00 Moderates should be the tiebreakers

23:30 A few uncommitted moderates could be a swing vote in congress

24:15 All you need to do is pick up a few seats to act as a fulcrum

25:45 It’s likely that Donalds wins in Florida, but it will be close

26:30 Why didn’t the Charlie Crist move work for Florida Democrats?

27:45 Can voters find David Jolly credible after changing parties?

29:30 More people are getting into politics for a pension & salary

30:30 People are going into politics for the wrong reasons

31:45 DeSantis appointed his cronies to be university presidents

32:30 Still deciding on whether to support Donalds or Jolly

34:00 Vindman doesn’t have a chance at winning

35:00 Texas Dem ticket is more liberal, why is it more viable than Florida’s?

35:45 James Talarico is very formidable, he has “it”

38:00 Andy Beshear won because Bevin turned on public school teachers

38:45 Charter schools aren’t about choice, they’re about money

39:30 Parental involvement is the best indicator of school performance

40:45 How would you message against DeSantis’s property tax proposal?

41:45 Americans are less interested in “us” and more interested in “me”

42:15 Implementing the property tax proposal will be like Brexit

44:30 Voters can make decisions that make no sense

45:15 Had the itch to run for office, but unlikely to do it

45:45 Government is for the future, should be age limits for elected officials

47:00 Very few elder politicians remain effective past 70 years old

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Timeline:

00:00 Senator Lindsey Graham dead at 71

00:45 Everyone had their theory for Graham’s motivations

02:00 Graham wasn’t an ideologue, wanted to be involved in everything

02:45 Graham pivoted to Trump for political survival

03:30 International affairs were Graham’s north star

04:30 He loved his senate seat more than almost anything

05:15 Graham’s death will cause some chaos

06:00 This might mean Todd Blanche doesn’t get confirmed as AG

06:30 There will be a LOT of Republicans running to replace him

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.