The Chuck ToddCast

Full Episode - Trump Goes Hat In Hand To China + Trump’s Policies Have Been Disastrous For The American Economy

Thu, 14 May 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Chuck Todd opens by previewing Mark Zandi's sobering economic forecast from this episode and arrives at a simple, devastating conclusion: every single policy decision Trump has made has made the economy worse, tax refunds have already been gobbled up by inflation, and the math guarantees voters will feel even worse by the midterms — meaning Republicans on the ballot should be furious with the president, and those in swing districts have no choice but to start distancing themselves from his policies now. But the real heat in this episode comes from his analysis of Trump's trip to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, which he frames as the diplomatic equivalent of going hat in hand. He argues there's simply no winning a trade war with China, that scrapping the TPP and the JCPOA will go down as two of the most colossal strategic mistakes of the modern era, and that Trump's combined Iran and China policies have somehow managed to strengthen both adversaries simultaneously — to the point that his foreign policy decisions are starting to make him look, in Chuck’s words, like a Manchurian candidate. The world is now beginning to view the United States itself as the global boogeyman, and Trump's presidency is doing damage to America's long-term standing that will take a generation to repair. The brutal irony, he notes, is that Trump now needs more from China than China needs from America: China is the only country with real leverage over Iran, defenders of Taiwanese independence are quietly terrified that Trump could trade them away for an economic off-ramp, and Xi gets to sit across the table from a desperate American president whose negotiating position keeps eroding by the day.

Then, Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.

The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Mark Zandi paints a sobering picture about state of the economy

02:30 Every Trump policy decision has made has made the economy worse

03:45 Tax refunds have been gobbled up by inflation

04:15 The economy will only feel worse to people by midterm elections

06:30 Republicans on the ballot should be furious with Trump

07:15 Republicans in swing areas have to distance from Trump policies

08:15 Trump in China to meet with Xi Jinping

09:00 There’s no winning a trade war with China

10:30 Getting rid of the TPP & JCPOA were colossal mistakes

11:30 Trump is losing the Iran war and strengthened Iran & China

12:00 Trump’s policies make him look like a Manchurian candidate

12:30 The world is now starting to view the US as the boogeyman

13:15 Trump’s presidency has been terribly damaging long term to the US

14:30 We need more from China than they need from us

15:00 China is the only country that could lean on Iran

15:45 Defenders of Taiwan independence worried Trump could cave

16:45 Trump is desperate for Xi’s help

21:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast

21:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier

23:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices

23:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year

24:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden

25:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war

28:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now

28:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s

29:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession

30:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates

31:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s

31:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic

32:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board

32:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections

34:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin

35:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely

35:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading

37:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year

37:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck

38:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession

40:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election

41:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession

43:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus

44:30 The job market is still very weak

45:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that

46:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have

47:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard

48:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations

50:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet

50:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all

51:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?

52:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores

53:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices

54:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs

54:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day

55:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs?

56:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump

58:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit

1:00:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west

1:02:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading

1:03:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas

1:04:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?

1:06:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem

1:08:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place

1:08:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt

1:09:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us

1:10:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar

1:11:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas

1:13:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon

1:16:15 Need a stiff drink after the interview with Mark Zandi

1:16:45 Ask Chuck

1:17:00 Alternative idea for formula to expand the house of representatives?

1:21:45 Will there be any impact from Susan Collins disclosing her tremors?

1:25:30 Thanks for interview with lawyers suing big tech, screen time is down

1:26:45 Could you argue that SCOTUS striking down New Deal policy was most impactful?

1:28:45 Is Dems gerrymandering more about deterrence and not pure hypocrisy?

1:33:15 If a justice steps down, who would Trump nominate. What would impacts be?

1:37:45 Thanks for the pod. It’s helped me get through long dialysis sessions

1:39:15 NBA playoffs reaction

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Interview Only w/ Mark Zandi - Trump’s Policies Have Been Disastrous For The American Economy

Thu, 14 May 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier

02:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices

02:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year

03:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden

04:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war

07:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now

07:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s

08:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession

09:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates

10:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s

10:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic

11:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board

11:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections

13:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin

14:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely

14:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading

16:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year

16:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck

17:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession

19:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election

20:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession

22:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus

23:30 The job market is still very weak

24:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that

25:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have

26:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard

27:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations

29:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet

29:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all

30:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?

31:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores

32:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices

33:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs

33:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day

34:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs?

35:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump

37:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit

39:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west

41:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading

42:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas

43:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?

45:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem

47:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place

47:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt

48:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us

49:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar

50:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas

52:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Can’t Defend His Bad Economy + Democrats Have Lost Their “Reformer” Image

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Chuck Todd opens with Trump getting visibly defensive with reporters over a brutal new inflation report — and argues the bad economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump's policies, with the president himself having zero answers for the data. He notes that AI investment is essentially the only thing propping up the economy, and that we are at least weeks away from the end of the Iran war. He warns we're only at the beginning of the inflation problem and that Democrats can simply point to Trump's broken promises of lower costs and no wars — they don't even need to make a "for" case, just a sustained "against" case — but cautions that despite all of this, Democrats still have a serious brand problem that no economic data alone will fix. He argues the failed Virginia redistricting effort exposed the deeper issue: Democrats talk like the resistance but are viewed as institutionalists, while Republicans still behave like raw partisans, and the rise of independent voters represents a fundamental protest against both available parties — something that should worry Democrats more than Republicans because the GOP has already shown a willingness to blow up the system. He makes a sweeping argument that until the last decade, Democrats were a reform-focused party, but the Trump era has pushed them into becoming defenders of institutions at exactly the moment when public trust in institutions had collapsed. He closes with observations from the Musk-Altman trial, which he says has been revealing about the personalities actually building AI — with OpenAI employees testifying to Altman's lying and the internal chaos, and so much tech ego on display that the public, already feeling burned by big tech, is only going to grow more skeptical.

Finally Chuck reveals his bonus TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists, the top 5 2028 Democratic hopefuls who have run for president before, and the top who haven’t. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Trump gets defensive with reporters over bad inflation report

03:00 Economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump’s policies

03:45 Trump has zero answers for the bad state of the economy

04:45 Dow still hasn’t gotten back over 50k since Bondi’s viral moment

05:45 AI investment is the only thing propping up the economy

06:30 We are weeks away from the end of the Iran war… at minimum

07:45 Despite the bad economy, Democrats still have a brand problem

08:30 We are only at the beginning of the inflation problem

09:15 Dems can point to Trump breaking promise of lower costs & no wars

10:00 Dems don’t even have to make a “for” case, just an “against” case

11:00 Another variable is what the political maps look like by the midterms

12:15 The issue for the Dems is what the party stands for… what’s its identity?

13:00 Dems ‘28 hopefuls need to, and will jump in early

13:45 Dems failed redistricting in VA exposed a problem with the party

15:45 Dems talk like resistance but are viewed as institutionalists

16:30 GOP still behaves more like raw partisans

17:15 South Carolina would have risked disaster by carving up Clyburn’s seat

18:45 Backlash to SCOTUS gutting Voting Rights Act could juice Dem turnout

19:45 Why do both parties seem against reforming the system overall?

21:15 Politics has become completely nationalized and it’s a problem

21:45 Until the last decade, the Democrats were a reform focused party

23:00 The Trump era has pushed Dems into becoming defenders of institutions

23:45 Biden ran on preservation when trust in institutions had collapsed

25:15 The rise of independent voters shows protest for the two available parties

26:30 Rise of independents should worry Dems more than Republicans

27:45 Real reforms to the system would help rebuild trust with the public

29:30 Dems risk becoming custodians of a system people don’t trust

31:45 Dems took their eye off the ball, haven’t acted as reformers

35:30 The Musk/Altman trial has been revealing of the personalities building AI

36:00 OpenAI’s employees testified to Altman lying and chaos internally

37:15 So much tech ego on display at the trial

38:00 The public already feels burned by big tech

40:00 TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists today
42:45 Winning Democratic presidential candidates are usually first time candidates
46:45 Top 5 2028 Democratic candidates who have never run for president
47:00 2026 results will dictate who will eventually have best prospects in 2028
50:00 #5 2026 TBD, could be Rob Sand, Mallory McMorrow…Colbert?
50:30 #4 Josh Shapiro
51:30 #3 Gavin Newsom
52:45 #2 Wes Moore
53:45 #1 AOC

55:45 Top 5 2028 Dem candidates who HAVE run for president
56:00 #5 Amy Klobuchar
57:00 #4 Cory Booker
58:30 #3 Pete Buttigieg
1:00:00 #2 Bernie Sanders
1:01:00 #1 Kamala Harris
1:02:30 Ask Chuck
1:02:45 Modern equivalent of the “good government” groups of the 20th century?
1:07:30 When should Dems make strategic adjustments vs compromising values?
1:10:30 Is a socially conservative, fiscally liberal platform viable?
1:13:00 Could co-op’s be a viable solution to modern economic challenges?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Full Episode - Trump Can’t Defend His Bad Economy + Can Government Effectively Regulate The AI Arms Race?

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:00 +0000

This episode of the Chuck Toddcast features a deep dive into the AI governance crisis with two of the leading experts in the field. First, Miriam Vogel — president and CEO of EqualAI — joins the show to explain her organization's mission of establishing meaningful AI guardrails at a moment when American consumers are deeply skeptical of big tech and less than 1% of companies have anything resembling strong AI governance policies. Vogel argues that good governance means corporate leadership must take direct responsibility for AI deployment, walks through her five best practices for responsible AI adoption, and pushes back on the idea that federal preemption should override state-level regulation — noting that companies are pushing hard against state regulation precisely because they know most of the actual rules will be written in court cases over the next few years. She warns that we're seeing tremendous investment in AI without commensurate ROI so far, that gender and regional gaps in AI adoption are already emerging, and that the public urgently needs to be empowered with real knowledge about AI's upsides as well as its risks. Vogel asks the question that should keep every executive up at night: are we actually ready for AI to make decisions without humans in the loop? And she argues that transparency — letting employees and consumers see how AI errors play out — will be absolutely essential to safe deployment.

Then former Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger joins to discuss what global AI governance should look like between superpowers, and whether the arms race framing between the U.S. and China is actually helpful or harmful. Neuberger argues AI is fundamentally different from nuclear regulation because it's being developed by the private sector rather than by governments, and questions whether it was a mistake to let the private sector spearhead this technology in the first place. Drawing on her cybersecurity background, she walks through how governments learned to combat ransomware: extending existing rules for fiat currencies to cover cryptocurrencies (which had helped criminals evade detection), disincentivizing ransom payments, and helping companies recover without paying — a template she argues could apply to AI regulation. Neuberger says AI drug development should be an international win-win rather than a zero-sum arms race, but acknowledges the national security applications make competition unavoidable, with advantages now measured in months rather than years and dangerously inadequate military-to-military communication between the U.S. and China. They debate whether an "FDA for AI models" might be necessary, that existing regulations can be updated to cover AI without requiring new legislation, and that AI will ultimately transform defensive cybersecurity by allowing companies to double-check their infrastructure at scale. Her bottom line: laws always trail technology, but governments have key roles to play in identifying cyber risks, helping companies patch their infrastructure, and ensuring America's defenders aren't left behind as Chinese models close the six-month gap.